Guess What? AK IS IN PLAY!

[Beetwasher]

It sure is!

Joe Miller (R) 33
Lisa Murkowski (R) 31
Scott McAdams (D) 27

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/10/15/910606/-AK-Sen:-Club-for-Growth-poll-shows-three-way-tossup

[tridim]

1. From what I'm reading the whole country is in play

AK is certainly a surprise.

[Sanity Claws]

2. Murkowski is a write-in

She won't get as many votes as the polls show because the polls actually ask about her by name. The ballot won't list her at all. I'll bet many people who answer "Murkowski" in response to the poll will simply choose between the two on the ballot. Unfortunately I feel a lot of those people will reflexively vote republican or not at all.

[SteppingRazor]

6. I have to agree.

A lot of those Murkowski votes in the polls will become Miller votes in the booths.

[Beetwasher]

10. You Don't Know How Many Will Be Miller And How Many Will Be McAdams

McAdams is a terrific campaigner.

[SteppingRazor]

14. That's absolutely true. I don't know. But ...

Miller is currently in the lead.

It's reasonable to assume that more Murkowski votes will break Miller than McAdams.

McAdams would have to have a huge advantage in Murkowski votes to beat Miller.

Therefore, this race is Miller's to lose.

[Beetwasher]

17. Not Necessarily, Lot's Of Moderates Vote For Murkowski

Who will not vote for Miller. He's that much of a nut. There's really no way to know. People are sticking with Murkowski BECAUSE They KNOW Miller is a loon. Why would they switch their vote to him now when there's a saner choice on the ballot?

[Blue_In_AK]

28. Don't count on it.

Joe Miller is imploding badly, and Scott is campaigning hard. I don't think Miller will pull this off.

[Statistical]

7. Exactly Miller get some of that Murkowski bleed.

Rep more likely to vote Rep.

Now some will write in, maybe even a significant % will write in but not all 31%. The % that doesn't write in say 11% will split favorably towards Joe Miller. Say it is 2:1. So roughly 8% to Miller and 3% to Scott.

We are talking something like 41% Miller, 31% Adams, 20% Write-in, 9% Undecided.

A better poll would be one asking who are you voting for:
a) Miller
b) Scott
c) write-in and require person polled to name write-in without prompting.

In almost every race w/ high writ-in polling the reality is much less (sometime half as much or third as much).

[Beetwasher]

15. I'm Not So Sure How Many Will Reflexively Vote For The Repub

And McAdams is a great campaigner.

[secondwind]

3. I just donated 20 to McAdams' campaign, and 20 to Sestak, who isn't doing well.

[Aramchek]

9. you must not have seen recent polls with Sestak in the lead?

[Beetwasher]

11. Sestak Is Now Leading

He's going to pull it out.

[Taverner]

4. The Teabaggers have made everyone reconsider the (R) choice

I love it

And let's hope the teabaggers will be scratching their heads after going "wha happund?"

[AC_Mem]

20. November 3

Cannot come soon enough. I have dollar bets going with all my conservative friends on these elections LOL. I will be dancing in the streets if we sweep in and dominate with democrats.

:)

[bemildred]

5. Does this mean the polls have been bullshit all along? nt

[Beetwasher]

12. How Would It Mean That?

[bemildred]

13. Because they did not in fact represent how the election will come out?

Isn't that what they are supposed to be doing, predicting election results? Or is it true that they are really public relations tools? Hmmm ...

[Beetwasher]

16. Or It Could Mean That The Facts On The Ground Are Changing

Like Scott McAdams is campaigning really strong.

[bemildred]

23. Assume what you say is true.

You are still left with the fact that early polls are not useful predictors of election outcomes. There is really no independent way to test them either, to show that they represent public opinion, just other polls. They represent little more than guesses as to how the public, which is not really paying attention yet, "feels" about the elections, or the parties, or something vague like that.

The only sound way to see how people are going to vote is to hold an election.

[Beetwasher]

25. Well Of Course "Early Polls" Aren't, But That Doesn't Mean All Polls Are Bullshit

And have been bullshit all along. They could have been very accurate, just the ground changed since they were taken.

I'm not a huge defender of polls, but they are an indicator. That's not to say they AREN'T used as propoganda, they are, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are bullshit (or all bullshit).

[Codeine]

29. An early poll is not an election prediction.

It's a snapshot of where voters are standing at a particular moment in time, valid for that period. Polls change as opinions change and positions solidify.

If polls were "bullshit" then they would not have proven as accurate as they did in our last round of national elections.

[stray cat]

8. a lesson for those wanting another challenger from the left in races

[LynneSin]

18. I think the Dems need to stop spending money in Delaware and spend it in Alaska

Baring Chris Coons cooking a small child and eating it on TV, Delaware is in the bag. Why not drop a million or so in Alaska and get another Dem win. Alaska is a cheap state to run a campaign and can make up for the losses we know we are going to get in Ind, NDak and Arkansas.

[Beetwasher]

21. Absolutely, AK Needs To Be A Major Priority Now

Without a doubt!

[Betty Karlson]

19. Let's agree that if McAdams wins AK

(and AK gets two Dem senators),
we will give lots of credit to him for saving the day when it mattered.

[Beetwasher]

22. It Would Be A Sweet Win

[flamingdem]

24. Great news on the day Murkowski is trotting out an old video endorsement by Stevens

That could backfire.

[Beetwasher]

26. An Interesting Tactic

n/t

[Blue_In_AK]

30. My question posted in the Anchorage Daily News comments

on the Stevens ad story, why isn't Lisa using endorsements by that other former Alaska senator -- her dad -- who gave her the job in the first place. No gratitude, that woman. :rofl:

[Beetwasher]

27. kick

[DFLforever]

31. This is great stuff to read.

Politics in MN is no where near as fascinating or entertaining this year.

For good measure I sent McAdams some money. He seems a very good guy.

I read about him in, of all places, the Guardian a couple of weeks ago. He definitely is getting the word out! He says he's going to surprise the world!