If you thought Peak OIL was a problem, check out the dwindling "Rare Earth" supply.

[dixiegrrrrl]

China Says Its Medium, Heavy Rare Earth Reserves May Last Only 15-20 Years
By Bloomberg News - Oct 16, 2010 4:51 AM CT


Snip:
China, controller of more than 90 percent of production of the materials used in cell phones and radar, cut its export quotas by 72 percent for the second half and reduced output, spurring a trade dispute with the U.S. The country may not be able to meet growing global demand as the government continues to curb output, Lynas Corp. said in March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-16/china-says-its-medium-heavy-rare-earth-reserves-may-last-only-15-20-years.html

[dkf]

1. Holy cow. Not good at all.

Thanks for posting.

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Warren Stupidity]

3. Helium down to 25 years. nt.

[Mudoria]

4. There are other rare earth deposits around the world..

China has just been undercutting (what else is new?) everyone else so that's not econonmically feasible to mine it elsewhere.

[hunter]

5. "Rare earths" are not that rare.

But do buy some mining stocks or Baby Billionaire might cry.

[Gregorian]

6. Why aren't more people connecting the dots! It's population.

There is no water "shortage". It's over-demand.
There is no peak oil, it's over-demand.

Limited supply, exponentially growing demand. Is that so hard to see? And if one sees it doesn't one take personal responsibility to slow down the breeding? I hear all kinds of delusional denying. People say it's not about personal responsibility, but a real leader we need. A leader to tell us to do what we should be doing if we just use our modern brains, and stop at one child. Or less. Two means we stay the same population. And the same population is killing the planet.

Almost every single other issue is meaningless in comparison to this. And no population forum here, or almost anywhere for that matter.

[L0oniX]

9. When we run out of oil then food production fails - people starve & die ...problem solved.

[Subdivisions]

14. We're going to see a whole lot of pain and trouble waayyyyyy

before oil "runs out".

Indeed, we're already seeing the consequences of five long years of stagnant to delcining oil production. We use 4 barrels for every new barrel discovered. EROIE is down to about 8:1, from 100:1 at the beginning of the Petroleum Age.

We are literally going to descend the stairway to Hell. IF the economy manages to recover the least little bit, it will create yet another spike in the price of oil, as it did in early 2008, going to $147 per barrel. This will result in another, even deeper, recession. Subsequent recoveries, which will be small, will result in oil price spikes and subsequently deeper recessions. We are now in a permanent depression. This has long been predicted by peak oil pundits.

See, the problem with Peak Oil is that oil production doesn't even have to go into terminal decline to cause immense damage to the global economy. And since 2005, oil production has been flat. And you don't have to look too far or too deep to see the evidence of it's effects on civilization. Civilization is already collapsing, albeit in slow motion. But, once oil production can no longer meet demand for a sustained amount of time, it will be in permanent decline. And so will this modern civilization.

The interim is not going to be nice.

[laughingliberal]

16. +1000 nt

[antigone382]

19. I think the latest figures are that we're using 6 barrels for every 1 discovered.

So, even worse now.

[antigone382]

18. I see your point, but it's more complicated than that.

In the first place, the most industrialized countries, with a much smaller and more stable population, are using WAY more of the Earth's resources than the least industrialized nations with higher birthrates. Statistically, one baby born in one of the most industrialized nations will use as many resources as 20 babies born in one of the least industrialized nations. Encouraging a stable or decreasing population through education, access to healthcare, and autonomy for women is absolutely significant in creating a just and sustainable world, but it is only one part of the problem, and not necessarily the largest.

In addition, peak oil is a problem no matter how many people are on the Earth, because oil is a nonrenewable resource any way you slice it, and will eventually decline and run out. If anything, oil has helped drive the population explosion, because the cheap energy it supplied led to things like the surpluses generated by highly mechanized agriculture, and the affordability of low density tract housing (a use of land that is incredibly wasteful, takes up useful agricultural land, and necessitates longer car trips to get to work, school, and necessities like groceries, while at the same time making public transportation impractical and inefficient due to the relatively low concentration of people living in the suburbs).

I agree that population at the very least needs to be stabilized, and perhaps decreased. But the wastefulness of Western societies with more stable populations is every bit as much a problem, if not much greater. A life of subsistence, where a family depends on as many hands as possible to scrape by, is threatened by a high infant mortality rate, and needs enough adult children to guarantee that parents without access to social security will be able to survive in their old age, is the only life available for many people in regions whose natural resources are exploited by more powerful nations like ours.

[Gregorian]

22. You did pick up on the mistake I made. Well done.

I was on a bike ride yesterday when I realized that oil is not renewable. And what you said about the free flow of energy we have experienced leading to the massive growth is true.

The main problem is that people don't use their vision and brains to avoid trouble. Petroleum just supercharged that problem.

Life has never been perfect here. But we had the chance of making it so close to perfect. Refrigeration, pasteurization, and all of the benefits of those who used scientific research to aid our lifestyles. But I fear for what could be coming, thanks to our inability to use limits.

[antigone382]

25. I agree, it's a frightening time to be aware.

There are so many things coming down the pike; there's virtually no way the next fifty years will be anything like the last fifty years. I want to believe that we can get through the combined decline in our oil reserves (and several other important reserves as well, like coal, phosphates, and phosphate fertilizers), AND global warming at the same time with a minimum of suffering. I want to believe we can come out on the other side of it a better, more just, and more resilient place. But there are so many changes that have to be made YESTERDAY, and so few people willing to even consider them, that at times it just gets totally overwhelming and I have to retreat from even trying.

On the other hand, the declines and climate change that are coming will not happen overnight. There will be time to adjust; and people have enough of a survival instict that I believe those who can, will. It's those who can't that I fear for...and I'm not entirely sure I'm not one of them.

[Gregorian]

27. Your perspective is somewhat positive.

I'm someone who has suffered immensely already. At the age of 15 I was already suffering from what I saw. But then I was already technologically aware. I knew what was going on behind the scenes.

It's hard to not be one of "those people" that you mention. I commuted for many years by bike, as the cars roared by with tons of steel, and one little creature inside. Sometimes nearly killing me. I was frugal. I was offered chances to travel the world many times, and turned them all down. That alone is very frustrating. To have watched everyone joyfully exploring what I never got to see.

But now I'm one of "those people". Tonight I sit here having spent the day on my backhoe, finalizing the design of my new home. An all steel monolith of my own creation. I'm excited, and yet disturbed to be doing exactly what I cursed. But hell, I spent years in trailers, and even one year in a tent in order to finally come to the point where I could no longer just sell a property. So build it is. And that is exactly the problem we're facing. One of the best examples is China's underdeveloped population. Who wouldn't want them to have hot water. I do. Yet for decades I've been saying that the day they even so much as turn their hot water on, we are going to begin rapid acceleration toward the destination we so fear.

I'm so glad I posted in this thread. The fear I have from those who resist this subject, and the pathetic arguments I've experienced in the past have kept me from feeling positive about participating. But you are one of few who has brought this discussion to a logical playing field.

We're in a corner. On one hand we can't touch the very thing that is causing the problem. On the other hand, if we don't do something quickly we may find out that things are not reversible. I do not want to discover that. I want to change the course before it's too late.

[KillCapitalism]

21. I think you nailed it.

If the earth only had maybe about 1 billion people total, we wouldn't have such resource scarcity. I'm doing my part, only had one kid b/c that's all I could afford anyway.

[customerserviceguy]

7. Maybe someday our landfills will be the new 'mines'

And future generations won't be able to comprehend how we threw all of that valuable stuff away. Maybe we should just separate our trash that has rare earth materials, and put it into stable storage where we've made it easy for folks in the future to harvest what they need out of it, without having to sift through all the other garbage.

[dixiegrrrrl]

10. I have been thinking the same thing.

Everytime I toss a plastic bag or container in the trash, I have been thinking maybe buying up landfills is the new "gold rush".

[L0oniX]

8. Rare Earth - Get Ready

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3Z8NU5ImK0

[WillyT]

20. LOL...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iGzzccAGXrQ/Se4CdbiXB1I/AAAAAAAABYw/wSvaa9zIrm4/s320/Rare+Earth+In+Concert.front.jpg

:hi:

[TexasObserver]

11. Your touch, your touch has grown cold.

That's the Rare Earth I like.

[Karenina]

12. Let's talk POTABLE WATER!

:rofl:

[JCMach1]

24. Seriously!!!

[Subdivisions]

13. Most DUers don't think PO is a problem. I've made post after post

after post for over four years. Believe me, only a few give a shit. The rest think you're crazy if you think PO is a real problem.

EDITED TO ADD: And if you don't believe that production of a finite resource like oil can peak and then go into TERMINAL decline, then you won't believe coal production is set to peak just next year either: http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/09/29/29greenwire-study-worlds-peak-coal-moment-has-arrived-70121.html

But, let's just continue to ignore it and go back to our ball games and reality TV shows, shall we?

[dixiegrrrrl]

15. Coal? Next year?

Wow.

and damn....here in the SE, THAT is our source of electricity.

I am so glad I do not have grandchildren.

[Subdivisions]

17. Expect rate increases to become a way of life in the years to come.

As coal production delcines, prices will of course go up. Electric utilities using coal will pass on that cost to the customer.

Coal production, however, will have a much less severe peak and decline profile than oil production. Crude oil, not counting condensates and associated liquids, peaked in May of 2005. Coal has not peaked yet. Luckily, here in the U.S. we still have massive reserves of coal. It's a matter of how it's managed as to how painful it will be post-peak. But, you can count on coal being exploited for maximum profit, almost assuring there will be no production decline restraint and responsible management of remaining resource.

[Statistical]

23. Unlike oil rare earths are recyclable.

Despite their name they aren't rare and current prices make them "dirt cheap" earths. This low profit, low volume biz caused US to be undercut by China in 1980s. There are substantial rare earth elements in US (and even were mines which operated for decades) but they can't compete for the insanely low prices china can export at. The RE is the US didn't go away. We simply stopped mining them because due to supply and demand it was cheaper to buy from China than mine ourselves. They are still there in dozens of mines in the Western portion of the country.

Scarcity will drive up prices and that will lead to recycling. It would be more correct to say the era of dirt cheap rare earth elements is over. Is that really a bad thing. Higher prices will lead to a more sustainable product lifecycle.

[trotsky]

26. Dammit, why does someone always have to bring facts...

to a good old "the sky is falling" thread?