••• Alaska prepares for chad city •••

[breadandwine]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304250404575558110863635970.html?mod=googlenews_wsj



With Democrats defecting from McAdams to Murkdowski to try to head off Miller, the complexity of writing Murkowski in is becoming an issue. Although there aren't actualy chads in Alaska write ins and the state law says the name must be written in exactly, state court rulings have said that the voter's intent must be taken into account. So if the name is ended with a "Y" instead of an "I" it could count and things like that. But we are looking at a fight like in Florida and Miller is indicating he is going to be very picky about whether a write-in vote was correctly done.

What this means is that if Miller and Murkowski continue to be neck and neck, Miller may really be ahead. And McAdams is still several points down. The meaning could be that Miller is headed to victory. It doesn't look like McAdams has the time to catch up, especially with the rivers of corporate cash going to the goopers and all the oxygen is being sucked out of his campaign by the media frenzy over the "neck and neck" battle between Miller and Murkowski.

Add on the fanaticism of Tea Party supporters to rush them to the polls and it doesn't look good.

They don't need no STINKIN facts to cast their ballot for Miller.

Meanwhile, Murkowski is laboring to distribute info on how to cast write ins, which complicates things. There will be dumb voters who get into the voting booth thinking they were all set to vote for Murkowski, discover that she's not on the ballot and dumbly vote for the other Republican, Miller. Or who knows what.

It's going to be a zoo.

[Blue_In_AK]

1. This is a race between Murkowski and McAdams

Miller is tanking so badly that he probably will come in third place. Please see my post here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9339341

I think a lot of Democrats and Independents will come to their senses and realize that we have to support Scott against Lisa. She has taken a hard tack to the right in the past two years and votes with the Republicans 90% of the time. The difference between Lisa and Joe is simply the difference between "no" and "hell, no." Why would we want to vote against our interests like that?

[breadandwine]

2. Fascinating post & link, Blue_In_AK. But it seems that Miller's supporters and other Tea Partiers

around the country don't need no STINKIN laws to do the RIGHT (WING) THING.

Laws are only for STINKIN nitpicking librul lawyers.


Where are you reading that Miller is falling appreciably in the polls? It looks to me like he's still headed to victory. And McAdams is rather static at 27%. Sane people are scared to death of Miller, and will vote for Murkowski. She doesn't arrest reporters, after all. This still looks like a bad situation to be in with only 2 weeks to go.

If the election were in 2 months, not 2 weeks, the situation could be a lot better. Winston Churchill once said the American people always do the right thing, after first trying everything else. It looks like they will still be trying everything else by the time those measly 2 weeks are up.

[Blue_In_AK]

3. They haven't done any polls here for a couple of weeks,

during which time it's been one thing after another with Miller, all involving his former job in Fairbanks and his refusal to talk about it. He's obviously hiding something, and these journalists aren't going to let it go, especially since he's been so adamant about it.

Miller had high unfavorability ratings BEFORE the past couple of weeks. He's got to be in deep trouble by now.

I base my intuitions about the election on reader comments at various neutral local websites.

[breadandwine]

6. Okay. So what happens with Murkowski?

Doesn't she become the prime beneficiary of Miller's misfortune? She would be peeling off the more moderate Miller supporters.


It doesn't look like there is much to convince people supporting Murkowski to peel off and vote for McAdams.

[SoCalDem]

4. If the "intent of the voter" is the issue, people should be able to write in "Lisa M."

and have it count.. Is there ANOTHER Lisa M on the ballot? That said, I hope the republicans battle it out so that McAdams is the beneficiary. I hope the dems don't move to Lisa..This is a big chance to get rid of that R next to an Alaskan senator's name:)

[breadandwine]

5. Doesn't look good. Miller defectors will go to Murkowski if they want to stop Miller.

This is the natural response to McAdams being in 3rd place several points down from the others.

[Blue_In_AK]

7. Do you live here breadandwine?

Are you a friend of Lisa's? This kind of negative energy is not needed here where the election is completely in flux and anything can happen. McAdams is campaigning all over the state and getting positive reviews everywhere he goes. People are being reminded over and over by McAdams supporters that a vote for Lisa is really no different than a vote for Joe -- it's ALL about the "no, no, no."

Just because McAdams was behind two weeks ago before Joe's meltdown doesn't mean anything today. Many moderates and Dems who had been contemplating writing in Murkowski are seeing now that SHE is the bigger threat and so will decide to vote their consciences.

Once again, Alaska is a purple state. Over 60% of the voters are not affiliated with either major party. Ted is dead. Alaska can get back to its Democratic roots with this election with just a little bit of positivity. People like you aren't helping.



As for writing in Lisa, there are SIX spots on the ballot where someone could mistakenly write in her name. Her name does not appear in the voter's pamphlet sent out by the state. Alaska is far-flung...the villages typically go for Democrats and they are not going to be motivated to write Lisa's name in. She has HUGE hurdles to overcome.

[breadandwine]

8. Blue, aside from Prozac, can you give me something concrete about why Miller defectors would go for

McAdams?


I've been involved with Democratic politics for decades including some staff and DC. How do you get from Miller losing votes to suddenly McAdams winning when there is a 3 way race and Murkowski is a Miller clone without a five o'clock shadow?


Americans vote on atmospherics, not facts.


This doesn't look good to me.