I think I'm ready to make a prediction.

[Pab Sungenis]

Senate: 53 Democrats, 45 Republican, 2 Independents.

We lose Alaska, Missouri, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas to the Republicans. We win Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Illinois. I think Pennsylvania is a tossup but I'm very worried. That really has been a Republican seat going back to the time of Reagan, Specter's defection notwithstanding, so for now I'm going to chalk it up as going to the Republicans.

Of the independents, Sanders will obviously caucus with the Democrats. Not so sure about Joementum, but since he knows he can't win the Democratic nomination for his own seat in 2012 and can't win the general without Republicans like he did last time, I'll bet he finally makes it official.

Effective final balance: 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans.

The really good news? The loss of Lincoln in Arkansas will mean one of the most vociferous Blue Dogs will be gone. This improves our odds of rewriting the Senate rules to end or severely restrict the filibuster. Nelson will vote to keep it, as will (probably) Warner, Tester, and Rockefeller. If we can keep the rest of our caucus in line, we'll have the 50 votes plus Biden to finally end the filibuster.

[musiclawyer]

1. That would be a dream

And I agree. Filibuster reform needs to happen with even the slightest dem majority. Without such reform, NOTHING, absolutely NOTHING gets done and the public WILL blame the democrats in 2012. This needs to be hammered home to the leadership.

[Ozymanithrax]

2. Though the Senate might change the fillibuster rule...

Democrats will not end it. That is my prediction.

Republicans, on the other hand, would do it since they know how that gun can be used...if they won.

[notesdev]

3. Neither party will remove it

it serves an excellent function as a ready, all-purpose excuse to pretend that they want to do something they really don't want to do. It provides for riskless political posturing, on demand, and serves to mask the fact that all of them are bought out and really serving the interests of people other than their constituents, regardless of what they pose as on the campaign trail.

Neither party will abolish the filibuster, and you can take that to the bank.

[Ozymanithrax]

4. I do not accept the premise that they are...

"bought out and really serving the interests of people other than their constituents, regardless of what they pose as on the campaign trail."

I think both parties like the tool of the filibuster and that they will preserve it. If the Democrats can keep party cohesion, they may change it a bit.

Republicans, having used it as a gun to the head of the Senate have a reason to fear it being used back in that way.

[Enthusiast]

5. I feel the same way.

Thanks.

[leftstreet]

8. +1

[jpljr77]

6. That's really optimistic. I unfortunately disagree, though.

Wisconsin is gone. There is a lead there outside the MOE that is consistent. And the outside groups are going to only increase spending over the next couple of weeks. Very sad, but no more Feingold.

Colorado is also going to be tough. The polls there are basically tied, but again, I think outside groups will tip the scales over to Buck.

Nevada. This one would hurt the most, not only because of who is being lost, but mostly because of who would be coming in. Batshit insane is no longer a disqualifier for public office, apparently, so we need to prepare for Senator Sharon Angle. {shudder} I still officially think that Reid will win this race, because enough people will get in the ballot box and realize that it might not be such a smart idea to elect a Senator that wants to eliminate the Department of ED, withdraw from the UN, amend the Constitution to specifically bar same-sex marriage, kill Social Security, ban abortion even in cases of rape and incest, and might even ban alcohol. Plus, her comments have given the Reid campaign plenty of ammunition for the final push.

So I'm looking more at a 52-48 split, with the possibility of Illinois making it 51-49.

[Barack_America]

7. Wisconsin??

[Qutzupalotl]

12. New poll has Feingold and Johnson tied.

A huge turnaround, since he was down 8 not too long ago. There's a thread on the Greatest page now:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9347465

Contribute: http://www.russfeingold.org/home.html

[histeria]

9. You have us winning 5 toss-ups

probable, not too likely. We'll see.

[Coyote_Bandit]

10. You may be glad

that Lincoln will be gone but as someone who is directly impacted by that I have to say that I much prefer Lincoln to her opponent John Boozman.

I refuse to quietly sacrifice my interests to further the agenda of the frickin carpetbaggers.
While Blanche is far from a perfect candidate she better represents my interests than Boozman. But those out of state interests who are not directly impacted could care less about that.

Why should somebody (or some group) who does not live in the state of Arkansas be permitted to impact who is elected to represent the people of Arkansas? They shouldn't. But folks can't seem to mind their own fucking business.

I blame Blanche's likely defeat on the frickin carpetbaggers of both the Dem and Puke variety. Before the carpetbaggers ad blitz - which began long before the Dem primary - Blanche held an approval rating in the state of over 50%.

Dems undermining other Dems - even Blue Dogs - does nothing to foster party unity. There is nothing to recommend loyalty to a national leader, candidate or political party who actively undermines one's own interests. Small wonder Blue Dogs are more loyal to each other than to the larger Dem party.

[Gin]

13. if the rethugs get congress back all I can say is...be careful of what you

wish for...the same anger that got them elected....will have expectations of jobs...and it just won't happen..

so...I am over the whole damn thing...I will vote for Nye even though he voted more 'no' than yes...but he is a dem and he will get one more vote from me.

I am watching a lot more food network since we are being bombarded with political ads.

[Coyote_Bandit]

14. Be careful what I wish for?

In case I wasn't clear I hope that Blanche Lincoln - the Dem candidate - defeats Puke John Boozman. I'll be very surprised if that happens - but I hope it does. And if doesn't then some of the blame lies with the frickin carpetbagers - both Dem and Puke - who undermined Lincoln.

If I wish for anything it is that the frickin carpetbaggers would clean their own tables and let me take care of mine.

If you lived in Arkansas you would have retreated to the food network at least a year ago when the majority of tv ads implored viewers to call Senator Lincoln regading healthcare reform. I really do think there are fewer political ads running now than there were then.

[RZM]

11. Not a bad prediction

But I'm a bit less optimistic on some of the tossups. I think the Dems can still retain a bare majority, but probably not 53-54 seats. I'd say at least 2 out of the 5 you put in the Dem column might not make it there, though of course even then you'd still have a slight Dem edge. But to get control the Repubs would have to almost run the table and I don't see that happening either. I'm thinking 51 or so Dem seats, though I'm not sure which of the tossups will go to them (if I had to guess now, I'd say Colorado and Illinois will go Dem, Wisconsin and Nevada will go Repub, and W.Va. will be the nail-biter of the evening). But there's still time for revisions :)

[Zax2me]

15. Very feasible.

I'd like to see similar results in the house but not as optimistic.
Still, time for everything to shift significantly.