John Nichols: Feingold Battles Back

[babylonsister]

Feingold Battles Back
John Nichols
October 19, 2010


Don't write the political obituary for Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold quite yet.

And don't give up on the notion that independent voters might ultimately reject the hyper-partisan appeals of the resurgent Republicans and rally to an independent Democrat in this volatile election year.

snip//

Now, however, one of the oldest and most respected polls of Wisconsin voters, the St. Norbert College Survey Center poll, sponsored by Wisconsin Public Radio, has the race narrowing to a toss up.

According to the St. Norbert Survey, it's Johnson 49 percent to Feingold 47 percent. That's well within the margin of error for this -- and other -- surveys, meaning the race can reasonably be described as a toss-up.

Unlike any of the earlier polls that showed Feingold trailing by wide margins, the St. Norbert's survey samples registered voters who are most likely to cast ballots. That should make it a more reliable measure.

Of equal interest are three other details:

1. Feingold's got room for growth in his numbers. Voters who said they were not sure whether they would back Feingold or Johnson were asked who they were leaning toward at this point. Among those who expressed a preference, Feingold led almost 2-1. This suggests that he is better positioned than most incumbents to gain the support of undecided voters who make their choice as Election Day nears.

2. Feingold's focus on trade policy -- a critical difference with Johnson -- appears to be resonating with voters who rank economic concerns far above all others. While Johnson supports free trade policies that polling suggests many Wisconsinites see as a threat to their jobs, Feingold's television advertising has highlighted his record as an opponent of free trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and the permanent normalization of trade relations with China. Feingold's campaign has highlighted the fact that Johnson described trade-related factory closings as "creative destruction" and praised China as a better place to do business than the U.S.

3. Feingold is running far better than his fellow Democrats. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett trails far behind Republican Scott Walker in the same sample. The spread is Walker 50 to Barrett 41. And it is even worse for Democrats when voters are asked whether they lean Democratic or Republican in congressional races. Only 36 percent pick the Democrats to 48 percent for the Republicans. That's bad news for the Democrats but rather good news for Feingold; it means that he is running dramatically ahead of his party -- which he almost certainly must do to be viable in what it shaping up as a rough year for Democrats.

more...

http://www.thenation.com/blog/155472/feingold-battles-back

[myrna minx]

1. K&R for Russ. n/t

[rpannier]

2. He's climbed back in it

Sestak has pulled ahead of Toomey
Oddly Rassmussen has Giannoulias ahead in Illinois
Hodes has started to clase the gap a bit in NH -- He's above 40 and she's below 50 (not great, but we can hope)
Blumenthall has crossed the 50% mark
Raese is imploding in WV
and so in Paul in KY

on edit: It's looking better and better

[babylonsister]

3. I concur with what you wrote, except Raese; hadn't heard that.

That's great news!

[cascadiance]

5. Methinks some people are actually studying their voters' guides now...

And facts that are found are more important at this point than marketing crap explosions. Would love all of these candidates to turn things around, as it would serve notice to others hopefully that elections can't be simply bought, but ultimately votes must be earned.

[HereSince1628]

4. Go Russ!

I'd hate to lose a senator that actually reads the legislation before he votes.