Two weeks to go and right on schedule

[nadinbrzezinski]

Races tighten.

No I am not cynical one bit

:sarcasm:

[neverforget]

1. But MSNBC has a headline screaming "CAT 4 election storm to slam Dems"

and they had "The Faces of the Tea Party" photoblog over the past few days. We're doomed! At least that's what the media wants us to think.

I fucking hate our media :argh:

[Parker CA]

3. Andrea Mitchell just dropped that Cat 4 nonsense. Nothing but mega-doom for the dems in their eyes.

I'd really, really love to see their memes just get destroyed on voting day. Even if we retain both the House and Senate by a single seat (I happen to think the margin will be a larger), their nonsense will be proven to be just that, complete and utter nonsense hoisted on the public viewer by the msm's corporate masters. It's all too transparent now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Because of poll methods it is about to

In my eyes. For the polled population they're correct, but polls leaving out huge groups.

[Ozymanithrax]

2. I watch electoralvote.com.

Today (Without Rasmussen or Pulse polls) the predictions are Senate Dem 52 GOP 47 Ties 1 and House Dem 206 GOP 201 Ties 28

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/Senate/Maps/Oct20-n.html

On a side note, when I hear that a likely voter poll has 44% Republican 32% Democrat and 24% undecided, I don't lend much credence.

Most of the likely voter polls now, show about 7%-10% undecided. That margin is still enough to swing most of these races either way.

From my opinion, polling has three main purposes in this order...

(1) Create drama - The media attracts viewers with drama. Saying that likely voter polls showing 25% of the electorate hasn't made up their mind so we might as well just toss dice doesn't create drama, doesn't put eyes on screen, and doesn't sell advertising.

(2) Create a narrative - Republicans want the narrative that they are going to win. This seems to appeal to a lot of voters who will say why ask to get our ass kicked at polls if we are just going to be beat. But the excitement of knowing they are going to win gets them to the polls. Some Democrats convinced they are going to lose will just stay home and avoid the disappointment and the ass kicking. Narrative suppresses the vote.

(3) Provide a snap shot of the political race as information. (This is a very distant third. Real information isn't necessary for the first two reasons.

Internal polls kept by the campaigns themselves are rarely revealed and are taken to convince the DNC, DCCC, DSCC, RNC, RCCC, RSCC, and other groups to alocate funding to local races. They are revealed to counter narrative.

[mod mom]

4. Not in my neck of the woods...

The Dems blew in in Ohio by running dirty tricks against Dem SOS Jennifer Brunner in the primary, now the Dem is losing badly (~20 points down) against Bush's former Trade Secretary:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/oh/ohio_senate_portman_vs_fisher-1069.html

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Talking national trend

They do this every time.