PA-SEN Sestak (D) 44.0% Toomey (R) 41.0%
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll. Small college poll... is this reliable?
Well, there's certainly no Democratic tilt in the other results:
PA-GOV Corbett (R) 47.0% Onorato (D) 40.0%
Obama Job Approval (PA) Approve 42.0% Disapprove 51.0%
Ed Rendell Job Approval (PA) Approve 33.0% Disapprove 56.0
The GOV race numbers are right in line with most polling and those two approval numbers are surely not Dem-oversampled.
Looks pretty legit.
One thing to note. This Muhlenberg poll has a lot more undecideds than any other poll of the race which is probably a methodological difference. Of the large 15% undecided it seems likey that cohort would break for Toomey. (If they vote, which one hopes they will not.)
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Poll: Joe Sestak overtakes Pat ToomeyNew U.S. Senate poll shows Democrat with three-point lead.
By Colby Itkowitz 10:58 p.m. EDT, October 19, 2010
WASHINGTON -- Joe Sestak has pulled ahead of Pat Toomey after trailing for months in their closely watched Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, an independent poll confirms.
Democrat Sestak now leads Republican Toomey 44 percent to 41 percent with 15 percent undecided, a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows.
The numbers are the first from a nonpartisan source to confirm the race has tightened two weeks before Election Day. Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling on Tuesday put Sestak up by 1 percentage point. And two internal Democratic Party polls last week showed the Pennsylvania contest closing.
. . .
In May, the same tracking poll was the first to show Sestak catching and eventually surpassing U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary. A tracking poll shows who's ahead and by how much each day until the election.
. . .
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-senate-race-20101019,0,4463394.storyhttp://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/pollsters/muhlenberg
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