Today's Bad News: West Virginia Senate Leaning Republican Again

[Yeggo]

I know it's Rasmussen, and I know that means a lot of you immediately discount it, but with this year's elections hinging on a turnout model that's subjective as hell no matter WHO'S it is, and a pretty good track record for Ras in Nate Silver's pollster ratings, you have to take it into consideration if you want to have a complete picture of what's going on.

Anyway, with this race back in Red (for now), Democrats' margin for error in the Senate gets as small as it can get: 51-49.

http://bit.ly/chOi4f

[monmouth]

1. Nate has fallen into the Ras category for me. I'm discounting his

analysis...

[The Northerner]

2. I still think it'll be close

[leftygolfer]

3. Two counter points

1,) Manchin is not a great Democrat, seems to be running against President Obama and would be to us what Ben Nelson is. A total pain. Would still rather him win, of course, but this is not Boxer/Fiorina.

2.) We have a bigger cushion than you are giving us credit for. 50/50 would still mean we get the Biden tie breaker

[Yeggo]

4. True about the tiebreaker...

But I think 50/50 gets to some serious problems with keeping Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson in the caucus. I doubt they could get them both. But when they would only have to flip one, the temptation can be awfully big.

[doc03]

5. The problem with WV is they like Manchin as Governor and

the Republicans have successfully framed the election that way. The Republicans have been suggesting that Manchin is a good Governor and if he goes to Washington he will support Obama. They have convinced the voters if Raese wins they have a win win situation. They have Raese in Washington opposing Obama and they keep their Governor. When Manchin leaves office Shelly Moore Capito (R) will step in as Governor and they will have a complete takeover. I am wondering where Jay Rockefeller is in all this?