Gallup Scandal. Urged to STOP Polling Immediately.

[RhodaA]

by pronin2 at Daily Kos

Poll guru Simon Rosenberg at NDN has been hammering away at MSM misconceptions of the 2010 midterms. Today he wrote up a piece challenging Gallup to change its model because he argues its impossible and its hard to oppose the facts presented. Gallup claims it revised its screen etc under critiques of its projection of how massively conservative the electorate they project will be Nov 2. Rosenberg says its revision makes matters worse and renders Gallup polling not credible. How? Well ...

Read more:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/10/21/912204/-Gallup-Scandal.-Urged-to-STOP-Polling-Immediately.-

[BzaDem]

1. Gallup has good polls of regsitered voters. But its polls of likely voters seem wrong this election.

Instead of trying to gauge turnout by asking questions meant to identify likely voters, they ask the questions and then artificially cap turnout at 40%. While this would seem like a reasonable assumption (since turnout in a midterm almost never, if ever, goes above 40%), this is causing their model to take the Republican enthusiasm gap and blow it up way out of proportion.

They are taking the 40% most likely to vote. Given that Republicans are much more likely to vote, many Democrats would of course fall below the 40% cutoff. But that doesn't mean they won't vote.

My guess is that we will either have more than 40% turnout (which makes their poll flawed), or we will have 40% turnout but their likely voter screen ordered voters' likelihood to vote incorrectly. That is why they are getting such Republican electorates in their samples.

[tsuki]

2. We are polled two to three times a week. Sometimes they ask

for the youngest male, other times they ask for the youngest female. I identify as a liberal, he a conservative (although if you question him about many issues, he is more liberal than conservative). He is also a Canadian citizen. I guess his responses are characterized as "unlikely" to vote, SINCE he cannot.

You stretch my credibility if you try to claim that the polling entity claims that they do not know exactly who we are, our ages, our probable responses and political identification.

Increasingly, I am becoming convinced that polls are constructed to satisfy the client, not gauge the public mood.

[LeftinOH]

3. I don't understand polls at all- and I only answer the recognized phone numbers on caller ID;

I suspect I'm not alone in that.

[tiptoe]

4. Richard Charnin exposed the Polling Scam first. Here's his 10/15 Update, w Gallup's "Unlikely Voter"

10/15 Richard Charnin Midterms Forecast: MSM's Likely Voter Polls Preparing the Cover for GOP Fraud