Palin Endorsements: -2 Net Loss so far in Senate and Governor races

[cbdo2007]

I had some time to kill so I started looking at Palin Endorsements and then polls for projected winners (at the fivethirtyeight site) and found the following for Governor and Senate races coming up.

What I did was cancelled out races where the incumbent party was already expected to win, so this doesn't give her credit if a Republican she endorsed is expected to win that probably already would have won, and doesn't penalize her if a Dem was expected to win and her endorsement is expected to lose

Senate - Palin is at a -1 Net Loss because her choice in KS lost in the primary. Here is how the rest of them break down - all cancelled out due to the stipulations above: AK, AZ, KY, and NH all have Republican incumbents so her Republican endorsement is moot. CA, DE, and WA all have Dem incumbents so her endorsement is also moot.

Governors - Palin is also -1 Net Loss because:
- 3 Incumbent Dems expected to be beaten by Palin Endorsements in IA, NM, and OK
- I incumbent Repube is expected to go Dem and beat a Palin Endorsement in MN
- 3 Palin Endorsements lost in their primaries
- The remaining two SC and TX were expected to go Repube anyways due to incumbents.

So don't buy the media hype about Palin Endorsements - in Senate and Governor races she REALLY will see a -2 seat net loss in the Senate and Governors battles. To see the truth here it is only fair to remove the ones where the incumbents are already expected to win because those likely have nothing to do with her endorsement.

Anyone else have time to work on the House ones? I've wasted enough of my work day on this one so far :)

[Brother Buzz]

1. Any numbers on House races?

[cbdo2007]

3. Not yet....I spent enough of my work day on this one so far....

Maybe I'll see if I can do that one tomorrow.

Thanks for looking!

[EFerrari]

2. Thanks, cbdo!

:hi:

[cbdo2007]

6. Oh, you're welcome.

No prob.

[thereismore]

4. Pretty cool analysis. nt

[cbdo2007]

5. Thanks!

[Viking12]

7. I don't think you should exclude AK. Her endorsement there might be beaten by a write in

[karynnj]

8. In DE Senate, there was no incumbent and Rep Castle was highly favored

You should could that one.