Poll finds 51 percent against Proposition 19 (California Ballot Measure to Legalize MJ)

[Hepburn]

According to the poll released Friday, 51 percent said they would vote against the proposition, while 39 percent said they would voter in favor. Ten percent said they didn't know, or refused to answer.

The poll was conducted by telephone from Oct. 13 through Oct. 20 among a random sample of 922 likely voters.

If passed, Proposition 19 would allow adults at least 21 years old to possess up to 1 ounce of marijuana and grow 25-square-foot pot gardens for personal pleasure.

It would also authorize county and city governments to regulate and tax commercial cultivation and sales.

http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_16406013?nclick_check=1

I simply do not understand why anyone would be against this ~~ excepting the liquor industry. It would bring in much needed revenue to Calif.

[tjwash]

1. Funny...it was 52 percent for last week

I love attempted voter suppression through the press. The problem is, that there is way too much money to be made by keeping it illegal

It could pass with 92 percent for, and they will find a way to keep it illegal. There are entire divisions of the DEA, the ATF, the prison industrial complex, that stand to lose HUGE chunks of funding if this passes. Not to mention the CIA and NSA that depend on drug trafficking to fund their dirty little covert proxy wars in 3rd world countries.

[Le Taz Hot]

2. There have been threats of sanctions against

California (an extension of Holders' jihad against pot). Of course, none of that would happen but it's starting to freak out some people. It's only a whispering campaign at the moment. I agree with the above poster, all of a sudden it's losing???? That's a pretty damn quick turnaround.

[FirstLight]

4. yes, i just heard those rumors yesterday

i have a close friend who works in city govt and she is pretty convinced that the city, and cities all over the state would lose all fed grants...i don't think that could happen, but i guess if the fear of losing money and services is big enough, "the hippies will be silenced"

another person i klnow who is active in the medical circles said that it would limit personal cultivation to the ridiculous, and 'hurt' the folks who grow & sell now because nobody will buy their product...i call bullshit. If i don't know how to cultivate, i am still going to seek out those who have those skills and product.

i think a little bit of an underground effort is being made to turn people off, since the usual arguments aren't working anymore...

[Control-Z]

14. I heard the same thing from

my 19 year old. He's buying into the argument.

[John Q. Citizen]

16. Can you ask your 19 year old why CA didn't lose Fed money when they

passed medical cannabis? But they would now?

Thanks, I'd like to hear what the thinking is behind this.

[court jester]

7. Do you really think the Feds wouldn't act?

It would be very simple for the feds to bring this to a screeching halt.

First, just like so many want the feds to do in AZ, they could sue, and probably will. But all of a sudden that will not be cool. It will still be cool in AZ though.

Secondly, or in addition to, they could (I hear the plans are being laid, but I don't have the info I used to) make a few (or 20) High (sorry) Profile busts and confiscate real estate. After one or two decisions by judges deeming this perfectly acceptable, there aren't many landlords that are going to write out permission slips so their tenants can break fed law and put them at risk, like prop 19 requires. (ROFL it's a 5x5 patch and the proposition REQUIRES TENANTS GET PERMISSION IN WRITING, which is a new law, one of a few that prop 19 brings but since no one has read the damn thing or any analysis things like this aren't being discussed.)

This is Fed 101 fer chrissakes. Haven't people been paying attention?

By the way the OP says they haven't a clue why anyone would be against this, but I'd bet $2.49 they haven't read the prop, or any analysis of it. Just cheering from people being led like sheep to slaughter. I'm hoping this doesn't pass for some pretty damn good reasons found here:
http://votetaxcannabis2010.blogspot.com/

[John Q. Citizen]

15. Usually it helps to have grounds to sue on. In AZ, the

feds are pointing out the historical fact and precedent that the Federal government is in charge of national boarders, not the states.

In the case of the CA cannabis initiative, states have long passed laws dealing with cannabis as well as other recreational drugs. So there is no exclusivity claim.

Just as the feds haven't shut off funding because of state medical cannabis, there isn't much evidence that they would attempt to shut off funding because of recreational cannabis. People made the same unfounded claims concerning medical use.

i tend to trust NORML(National Organization for the Reform of Marajuana Laws on these issues since they have a long track record, and this is what they say:

http://blog.norml.org/2010/07/19/californias-prop-19-a-word-for-word-analysis/

[bemildred]

3. "random sample of 922 likely voters" is an oxyumoron. nt

[RaleighNCDUer]

5. And, by definition, "likely voters" trend older and whiter than the

general populace - not the demographic which is likely to be drawn to the polls for this issue (though there are plenty of older, white ex-hippies in California, I'm sure). The populations who are suffering the front-line casualties in the war on drugs could turn out, against expectation of the pollsters.

[Gold Metal Flake]

6. Telephone poll. Not cell phone poll.

Probably older voters who fear the idea.

[krabigirl]

8. Exactly. Another recent one polled over 1800 on land lines, 200 on cells.....

I don't know anyone who has a landline.

[Gold Metal Flake]

11. If available dry loop DSL weren't slower than what I have now...

...I would lose my land line as well.

[krabigirl]

9. Also, the swing could be due to Arnold decriminalizing it as of Jan 1.

Some people would prefer that over Prop 19. I think that is sad.

[slackmaster]

10. "Reefer Madness" is not dead yet

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGw1ygoR3r8

[Life Long Dem]

12. The "Broadus Effect"

Pot Legalization Backers Say Prop. 19 Is Winning In Their Own 'Internal Poll'
By Dennis Romero, Fri., Oct. 22 2010 @ 2:17PM

Supporters of California's pot-legalization effort struck back against a wave of negative news about how Prop. 19 is losing ground -- badly in the latest poll -- among Golden State voters.

The Yes on 19 campaign on Friday released the results of an "internal poll" that shows the initiative winning 56 percent (for) to 41 percent (against). A USC College/Los Angeles Times poll released Friday had almost the opposite, with 19 going down 51 percent to 39 percent among likely voters. What gives?

The pro-pot people say it's the "Broadus Effect," named for chief stoner Snoop Dogg (a.k.a. Calvin Broadus):

http://blogs.laweekly.com/informer/2010/10/prop_19_winning_pot_poll.php

http://yeson19.com/internalpoll

[FreeState]

13. The internal numbers comparing live vrs automated is fascinating

http://yeson19.com/sites/default/files/Prop%2019%20live%20vs%20auto%20poll.pdf

[Pushed To The Left]

17. Many decades of brainwashing and lots of money spent by those who benefit from prohibition

I am very active with the Prop 19 campaign here in California. My gut feeling is that it truly could go either way, but there is a LOT of fear-mongering going on by the prohibitionists. I and many Democrats I know are not very happy with Eric Holder and his threats against California should we pass Prop 19. The ironic thing is that many libertarian-leaning Tea Partiers are actually very supportive of Prop 19. Like I said before, it would be very unwise for the Obama Administration to strong-arm California in the name of the drug war. I don't think President Obama can afford to lose our 55 electoral votes in 2012.