•••Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight site predicting GOP House, Dems to lose most advantage in Senate•••

[breadandwine]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


Links to every House & Senate race in the country including polling data.

He is claimed to have been right a lot in the past.


This grim outlook is because the public still doesn't get it that the GOP is full of nuts and maniacs.

No one's allowed to know about that......

And they don't get it that the GOP put us one little angstrom away from a depression and we're still trying to dig out.

No one's allowed to know about that either........

So it's all the Democrats' fault so vote GOP.

Eight years of hell wasn't enough.

The country needs more punishment.

Winston Churchill said "Americans always do the right thing. After first trying everything else."


Of course, when times are tough, we need to turn to --

The Black Legion ----

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kudKJfS15B0&feature=related


They'll restore ... White America.......

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Arrives Early To Get A Good Seat

:popcorn:

[lamp_shade]

4. lol

:popcorn:

[Le Taz Hot]

2. They have Boxer winning by 4 points.

I hope they're right. Last poll I saw she was neck & neck with Fiorina -- Iirc, 46% to 45%, Boxer, Fiorina, respectively.

[breadandwine]

3. I saw that too.

The problem is that the goopers nationalized this election and we didn't. I still don't understand the Democratic party's decision to only treat each race individually. The GOP is a party of nuts, nazis, wieirdos and maniacs and we act like we can't say it.

[Buns_of_Fire]

13. Of COURSE we can't say it. They might get angry and start calling us socialists and

communists and unAmurkin and pinkos and troop-haters and...

...oh, yeah. They ALREADY do that, don't they?

Well, the point still stands. If we REALLY get the assorted nuts, nazis, weirdos, and maniacs mad at us they might start calling us Poopie-Heads. And we don't dare risk that.:scared:

[RBInMaine]

10. Latest poll has Boxer up by 8.

[WCGreen]

5. Haven't had the word Hunyock since my grandma died 30 years ago...

Interesting...

[ixion]

6. "the public still doesn't get it that the GOP is full of nuts and maniacs."

This logic is, again, only part of the issue, and seems indicative of the dems only message: "vote for us, because we're not quite as corrupt as the other guy."

It's an old, tired phrase. If the dems are concerned about losing, they should look no further than their own self-serving actions.

[RBInMaine]

9. Many Dems are attacking the Pubs on MANY issues. This is a CHOICE election, not a simple referendum.

[Pab Sungenis]

7. Nate's model is very flawed.

It isn't a poll, it relies on other polls, which are very volatile this year and whose methodology is being called into question.

It then "simulates" elections based on those polls. Monte Carlo simulations aren't good models for elections.

He got lucky in 2008. Hopefully he won't get lucky this year.

[RBInMaine]

8. The HOUSE is VERY 50/50. Many races are deadlocked. Engame turnout is the key. So help GOTV.

[breadandwine]

11. I hear you, but his record in the past has been praised.

...

[spanone]

12. well, i predict it won't happen.

[breadandwine]

14. ALMOST EVERYBODY is now predicting loss of the House.

We never nationalized the election the way the other side did.


We tried to win on an individual local race basis.


I have no idea why this choice was made.


The other side had overriding central themes and narratives and we didn't.


They had a reason why everyone should vote GOP and we offered no reason to do otherwise.


We also offered no reason why they were wrong. We bought from them hook line and sinker that the cause of the economic problems was "liberal big spending" jacking up the deficit when it was the exact opposite, that the spending was what was keeping us out of a depression and we needed even more of it, about twice what we spent, as Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate, has been screaming for 2 years. The GOP kept screaming that we had to cut spending. This is exactly what Herbert Hoover did right after the 1929 stock market crash and THAT is what sent us into a depression, as Krugman points out. It wasn't just the 1929 stock crash, it was the one-two punch of the crash and the cut in spending that sent us into a depression. But the GOP didn't want us to get out of the economic mess so they spent months screaming that the spending was the problem, not the solution. And we bought it and began apologizing and agreeing with the GOP.

So voters don't have a reason to vote Democratic.

Also, independents don't have a reason to vote Democratic. One has to be ignorant to be independent and we never gave the independents an understanding of all this. So they are all voting Republican.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

15. "Boxer is going to lose. Believe in the tooth fairy if you want to."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8959569&mesg_id=8959730

Latest LATIMES poll: Boxer up by 8.

Watch the watchers.

[breadandwine]

16. We are in a lot of trouble any way you look at it. The next 2 years are going to be a zoo.

...