Nate Silver still sticking to the enthusiasm gap line

[Quixote1818]

October 24, 2010, 9:58 pm Early Voter ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Appears Consistent With Polls
By NATE SILVER
There’s been a lot of discussion recently about early voting data, which is already available in a number of states. In most parts of the country, indeed, a voter is already able to cast a ballot if she wants do.

This early voting data is very attractive in one way: since many states track the number of early voters by political party, it reflects the first ‘hard’ evidence we have about the turnout of actual voters in this year’s elections. Those of you who don’t trust the turnout estimates that pollsters are coming up with might therefore be especially fond of it.

I would, however, urge some caution when reading articles about these early voting statistics. Like most other types of political data, they can be prone to either misinterpretation or to ’spin’.

First, early voting patterns seem to differ a lot from state to state this year — with Republicans posting terrific numbers in some states at the same time Democrats do surprisingly well in others. So there tends to be some cherry-picking in the analysis of results: Democrats, for instance, might point to their numbers in Iowa and Ohio, which are good, and Republicans theirs in Florida or Pennsylvania.

More:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/early-voter-enthusiasm-gap-appears-consistent-with-polls/?partner=rss&emc=rss

[Dawson Leery]

1. Pennsylvania does not have early voting, Nate.

[Quixote1818]

3. You're right. Wonder what the fuck Nate is referring to?

Absentee ballot?

[LiberalAndProud]

6. Is this a mistake, or a signal of distress?

Why would he refer to early voting in a state that doesn't? It puts me in mind of the person on the phone at gunpoint trying to tip off the caller without tipping off the gunman. :tinfoilhat: Maybe it's just the late hour working on my imagination.

[BzaDem]

10. He is lumping together early voting and absentee voting. PA most definately has absentee voting

as does every district in the country. Since absentee ballots that have come in so far are, by definition, early, the comparison makes sense.

[LiberalAndProud]

12. So it does (make sense). thanks

[wisteria]

13. These ballots are not opened or counted until after the election. n/t

[BzaDem]

16. The ballots aren't, but the people who voted (and their party affiliation) are. n/t

[NBachers]

15. He's trying to encourage Pennsylvanians to go out and vote early

then they'll get frustrated and discouraged because they couldn't vote, and the bagbiters can swarm the polls on election day.

[Wounded Bear]

2. Still riding on the Obama results, eh?

I think they're off. I really do.

Most of the polls have been driven by the RW noise machine. I think the real data is starting to come out, and it's trending away from the GOTers.

[Quixote1818]

5. There clearly is a shift in the polls the past few days. Shifting toward the Dems.

Nate doesn't talk about that. Both PA and CO are tied up now.

[aquart]

4. I decided to follow him on Twitter but he's so depressing!

[regnaD kciN]

7. Well, we'll just have to prove him wrong, won't we?

[JohnnyCougar]

18. I think that's the idea

Remember, Nate leans liberal.

If the prospects of this election are depressing, GOTV. Honestly, if Nate were preaching complacency, it would be worse for liberals in the end. The fact that liberals know there is an enthusiasm gap gives them all the more motivation to GOTV. Knowledge of the enthusiasm gap: 1) is a constant reminder that this election is a choice (that is up to you), not a referendum, and 2) a challenge to make pollsters eat crow.

I know I'm more motivated myself knowing that the enthusiasm gap exists.

[Life Long Dem]

8. If PA doesn't have early voting

It wouldn't reflect the first ‘hard’ evidence he said he had.

[Quixote1818]

9. He is basing his numbers from someone at Politico

which we know is right wing to begin with.

[wisteria]

14. Politico? Oh please what a tool site. n/t

[Major Hogwash]

11. He sold out in 2008. I no longer listen to Nate Silver.

Instead, I look for the rings in a pool of oil outside my house in the gutter after it has rained, and if there are any green circles evident, then the Republcans will all be raptured on Nov 1st.

Yeah, I know what you're thinking, but it's just as fucking scientific as Nate's claim "I've run the same model 1000 times."
Sure, but what if Nate's fucking model is fucked up to begin with dood, then what???

It's time to take Nate to the "truth trough" and see if he floats.

[BzaDem]

17. Then again, people said the same thing about his model in 2008, when it was basically 95% accurate.

He projected all senate races correctly, all but one state for President correctly, and the margin of Obama's victory was very close to his projectino.

So forgive me if I take him more seriously than I take you.

[Scruffy1]

19. What do you expect? He now workds for the Times

Or should I say that evil war mongering piece of pseudo journalism from New York City?

[Skip Intro]

20. maybe its true nt

[Bitwit1234]

21. I love the statement he makes....

In early voting the republicans have terrific numbers AND Democrats are doing surprisingly well. So for us that say the Democrats are posting more votes than the republicans, oh heck they (republicans) are terrific by doing second best.