The early vote: If there's a GOP surge, Democrats don't see it

[DearAbby]

How good is early balloting for election prognostication? When parties are dying for a peek at the outcome, they'll analyze whatever they can get.

Sports buffs like to say that a win at the beginning of the season counts just as much as a win when the end of the season approaches. Would that elections were as simple as sports.

As more people take advantage of the growing number of states that allow early voting – casting a ballot before election day – the issue of what that vote means has moved to the fore, as has the question of whether it has a predictive value beyond the partisan propaganda of galvanizing voters.

The latest entry in the political hot-stove league is a memorandum, released Monday, from Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) that argues that Democrats are holding their own or are even ahead in some of the early voting in key states.



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http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-early-voting-20101026,0,1323447.story?track=rss

[Xenotime]

1. And there won't be.. The RW media is making shit up.

[Andy823]

3. Yes...

And they are hoping that democrats get discouraged and stay home, however this tactic doesn't seem to be working, and the know it! The polls are showing democrats coming up, tying, and surging ahead in many races, and yet the MSM keeps on talking about the "landslide" by republicans! Now I think we will lose some seats, but nothing at all like the hype the media and the right wing have been predicting!

I think americans are waking up, they are not happy with either party, but when the stop and think about the choice they have to make they realize that the republicans got us in this mess, they have done nothing to help get us out, they have no plan to fix things, they only want to make Obama fail, and they are not happy at all with the money coming in on the right from sources that the right won't talk about. The idea the money is coming in from overseas to "BUY" a congress that will be OK with outsourcing is not going to do well for republicans!

The right has gambled on americans being to stupid to remember who got us here, to stupid to realize the republicans have no plan, and to stupid to realize that money from overseas is trying to buy the outcome of this election! They are going to lose that bet!

[LonePirate]

2. The big unknown is what percentage of each party crosses party lines to vote for the other party

Unless that percentage is historically close to 100%, these numbers have little value. Then there is the mystery of how the independents are voting, be it 50-50 or 65-35 in favor of one party or the other.

[Andy823]

5. Well...

I don't see democrats crossing over to vote for republicans. And I don't think many republicans will cross over, but there could be some. Independents are hard to figure at this time, but I think when it comes time to vote, most of them will remember who got us in this mess in the first place, and who it is that has done NOTHING to help fix the mess they got us into!

I think there will be some in both parties that stay home, but I actually think there will be more republicans staying home than democrats, which is good! A whole lot of moderate republicans are not happy at all with the tea baggers taking over their party. They see just how crazy these people are and don't want them in office. In Nevada some of the republican big shots are already supporting Reid because they know how crazy Angle really is, and they want nothing to do with her. Only time will tell, but even though I think democrats lose seats in both houses, I still think they keep control of both houses.

[stopbush]

4. One thing that can't be disputed - an early vote for either side is a vote that's in the can.

Lots can happen on the actual election day, from people bothering not to vote when they had every intention of voting to people being denied the chance to vote due to shenanigans to the weather keeping people away to whatever.

A bird in hand, as they say.

[Gin]

6. "if" they win big...they will have extremely high expectations to deliver

and deliver fast....they have nothing but more tax cuts and that will not increase demand and create jobs....

they need to be careful what they wish for.

[The Backlash Cometh]

7. Beware, Beware.

Around here, when the election was held in one day, during the day the election pollsters would indicate that the Dems were winning, then at night, the numbers would flip. The Republicans would claim that's because Republicans held jobs and had to wait until after work to come to vote. And for at least a decade, everyone believed that answer was accurate.

I'm sure they'll come up with another brilliant response if the numbers flip again, even with early voting available to everyone.