Of Florida and Rhode Island (and party loyalty and independent candidates).

[Skinner]

As most DUers are aware, we have (at least) two hotly-contested statewide races this year in which independent candidates are in a position to possibly beat the Democratic candidate, or even win. One is the US Senate race in Florida, where Republican Marco Rubio (43%) is currently leading Independent former-Republican Charlie Crist (32%) and Democrat Kendrick Meek (20%). The other is the gubernatorial race in Rhode Island, where Independent former-Republican Lincoln Chafee (35%) leads both Democrat Frank Caprio (28%) and Republican John Robitaille (25%). Rasmussen: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/florida/election_2010_florida_senate">Florida US Senate, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/rhode_island/election_2010_rhode_island_governor">Rhode Island Governor.

The United States has a stable two-party system, and we all know it is fairly uncommon for there to be more than two viable candidates in a general election. When there are third-party candidates or independents, they typically poll somewhere in the low single digits. They can occasionally influence elections by splitting the vote on one side and throwing the election to the other side, but they rarely have any chance of winning an election outright, or even coming in second place. So, if you are a voter who leans decisively to the left or right, voting for independent candidates is usually a self-defeating proposition (at least in the near term). The most you can usually hope to do is split the vote and throw the election to the other side.

This is why I am a loyal Democrat. Given that I do not want to split the left and potentially throw the election to the Conservative alternative, I will always vote for the more liberal of the two viable major party candidates (ie: the Democratic Party candidate).

But in a race between three viable candidates, this formula gets all messed up. Which candidate should you support?

* The purpose of voting is to elect the people who will hold government office.

* My goal as a progressive voter is to use my vote to help elect the most progressive candidate with a chance of winning.

If you live in Rhode Island, you are in luck. The two leading candidates for governor are the Democrat (Caprio) and the former-Republican Independent (Chafee). Both are more progressive than the Republican alternative. And here's the really great part: The combined support for Caprio and Chafee (63%) is MORE THAN DOUBLE the support for the Republican (25%). Assuming these polling numbers hold up, you can vote for either Caprio or Chafee with no danger of inadvertently throwing the election to Robitaille! Math: It's a beautiful thing. So, if you live in Rhode Island, a progressive voter can compare Caprio and Chafee and vote for whichever candidate you feel is better.

To be clear: This doesn't mean the Democratic President of the United States gets a free pass. Unless he has a good reason, I think a Democratic President has a responsibility to support Democrats (despite my http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4587849&mesg_id=4588090">uninformed earlier outburst). As far as I know, no reason has been offered for the lack of endorsement in this race.

If you live in Florida, you're not so lucky. In fact, it's tragic. This is a classic case of splitting the left (or, in this case, "splitting the non-Teabagger vote"), and helping the Republican candidate. I blame Charlie Crist. At this point, it appears that the only hope to defeat Rubio is if either Crist or Meek drops out of the race and throws their support to the other candidate. Or if the anti-Rubio vote could somehow spontaneously coalesce behind either Crist or Meek, but I don't think that's likely to happen. As a progressive voter, there are no good options. I think you have to weigh who has a better chance of pulling an upset (Crist) against who is better on the issues (Meek) and make a decision. I think the purely strategic vote is on Crist, except that we don't even know for sure if he'll caucus with the Democrats in the Senate. I don't envy you.

[Scurrilous]

1. Thanks Skinner.

:thumbsup:

[flvegan]

2. Thanks, Skinner. It does suck here.

I'm really disappointed in the Meek/Crist v Rubio fiasco here. I fear the outcome to be honest.

[Tony_FLADEM]

3. The Chamber of Commerce ran attack ads against Charlie Crist

I don't know any Republican candidates the CoC has attacked. Also, Jeb Bush does not like Charlie Crist.

Anyone the Chamber Of Commerce and Jeb Bush are against is alright in my book.

[SteppingRazor]

5. And Jeb Bush LOVES Marco Rubio.

Back when Marco was House speaker, he was essentially the governor's mouthpiece in the state House.

[Tony_FLADEM]

7. That's true

[SteppingRazor]

4. And in Florida, with regard to one of the two dropping out...

there's no guarantee the one that's left will even come close to winning. If Meek drops out, obviously, his voters aren't going to Rubio. But how many go to Crist and how many just skip voting in the Senate race?

On the other hand, if Crist were to drop out, it's entirely possible that some of his voters go to Rubio and some to Meek, which would almost certainly put Rubio over 50 percent.

It's a mean world down here in the Sunshine state.

[Tony_FLADEM]

9. Charlie Crist is popular among African Americans

Back in 2007 the Florida NAACP proclaimed Charlie Crist Florida's first African-American governor.

I'm not advocating Meek drop out, but if he did, African Americans would support Crist.

[mcar]

49. Early voting has started here, though

So I'm not sure what effect one dropping out would have at this late date. The ballots are printed and people are voting.

As much as I hate the thought of Sen. Rubio :puke: , I hate even more the thought of Governor Scott. :eyes: :puke:

If there's any chance Meek dropping out would lose Dem Gov candidate Alex Sink votes, it's not worth it IMHO.

I speak as the wife of a public school teacher who has 13 more years before retirement. If Scott gets in, teacher tenure ceases to exist in Florida.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

6. Excellent analysis, my dear Skinner...

Uninformed outburst notwithstanding!

Recommended.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. The only facts are that an alarming number of my fellow posters have vilified Caprio for .....

.... no good reason apart from his radio interview today.

I posted asking for the back story. I was met with silence and unrecs. Why? Because this is a clear case of blind support at even the **appearance** of criticism - even when that criticism may well be sound and well-founded.

Note to whom it may concern: Caprio is not widely known to be a scum bag.

:eyes:

[DJ13]

10. I blame Charlie Crist.

For splitting the vote, why?

He's out polling Meek, so I think you're blaming the wrong candidate.

[Freddie Stubbs]

11. I must say that I am VERY disappointed that DU has allowed a Democratic's campaign to be undermined

Even if Meek can't win, Cristophiles are depressing Democratic (especially African-American) turnout by pushing the meme that Meek can't win and should drop out. All this does is hurt down-ballot races and weakens the party as a whole.

[Tony_FLADEM]

13. African-Americans support Charlie Crist

In 2007, the Florida NAACP proclaimed Charlie Crist, Florida's first African-American governor.

[The Backlash Cometh]

37. It's Florida. Everybody thinks they have a right to screw this place up,

as if we needed any help.

[flyarm]

12. new poll ###'s for Florida today....

Today's Zogby Poll shows the Governor closing the gap ! The results are as follows:

Rubio - 39%
Crist - 33%
Meek - 18%

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2010/10/zogby-poll-rubio-leads-crist-by-6-percentage-points.html

THIS IS THE MOST RECENT POLLING DATA ON THE RACE

For analysis on the numbers, please click here: http://blogs.creativeloafing.com/dailyloaf/2010/10/25/new-zogby-poll-first-indication-crist-benefitting-from-anybody-but-marco-sentiment/

[flyarm]

14. I do not believe it is viable in Fla for anyone to drop out. Early vote began approx two weeks ago,

I got my mail in vote well over 1 month ago.

It would be disenfranchising voters who already voted for either candidate to drop out.

[mkultra]

15. Obama is staying out of the race because he and Chafee are friends

"President Obama decided to stay out of the Rhode Island governor’s race “out of respect for his friend Lincoln Chafee,’’ said White House spokesman Bill Burton. When questioned by White House reporters on air Force One, Burton elaborated, according to the press pool report."

http://wrnipoliticsblog.wordpress.com/2010/10/25/obama-cites-respect-for-chafee-in-no-ri-gov-endorsement/

[trud]

16. This is what I said in another thread

This is what I said in another thread:


RI politics is among the most corrupt in the nation. You cannot imagine how corrupt the government is in this state.

There are families (I do not use that in the mob sense, although that certainly was true in the past) in RI who have long, corrupt histories in RI politics - the Lynches, the Caprios, the Ciccilinis, for example.

Just recently, Caprio funneled state money to a school for rich kids that his son attends. Caprio Sr. hands off state jobs that are supposed to be open for anyone to apply for to his buddies.

No one has ever questioned the ethics of either Linc Chafee or his father, John Chafee. How many politicians can you say that about? Linc Chafee was the only Republican to vote against the Iraq war. He cast his vote for Obama for President. He was on the hit list of the Club for Growth. He is a thoughtful person who says it like it is.

Caprio twiddled with the idea of running as a Republican. Do you seriously think that when the choice is between Caprio, an ethically challenged right-winger, and Chafee, an honest Independent with Democratic principles, people should support Caprio? If so, go elect some cretin in your own state, don't wish one on us.

That's even leaving aside the Joe Miller-like Caprio behavior. I expect better of the Governor of my state than the temperament of a foulmouthed ten year old.

[The Backlash Cometh]

38. I figured it was something like that.

Thanks for the explanation.

[rug]

17. As I read this, you're saying that a vote for the Independent in both RI and FL is DU-consistent,

so long as there is a practical chance of that Independent winning.

Is that an accurate reading?

[Skinner]

22. I'm not sure "practical chance" is the standard.

I think as a practical matter, the independent would probably be fair game if they were in either first or second place (especially if they are leading the Democrat).

[rug]

23. Ok, thanks for the perspective.

[lark]

18. So very true

Florida sucks! The thought of Marco Rubio just makes my head spin, all the really horrible bills that Crist vetoed this year would be cheerleaded by Rubio! Him in charge of redistricting is even worse.

[MineralMan]

19. Some you win...

That's about all I can say about these two races...sad.

[JonLP24]

20. I agree that Florida Democrats are not lucky

I don't think Meek should drop out because he is the only candidate that doesn't support extending the Bush tax cuts. I believe Florida voters should have a choice to vote for a candidate that doesn't support such a horrible, failed policy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Voted For Meek But I Respect DUERS Who Cast A Strategic Vote For Crist- We Are The Party Of Reason

This vote causes me some consternation but not nearly as much consternation as if I knew my vote would actually make a difference in that race. If I thought voting for the devil would stop Marco Rubio I would have voted for the guy with horns and a red cape. But he's not on the ballot and Rubio is crushing his two main opponents, Meek and Crist, so I voted for Kendrick Meek. I vote for Kendrick because he has a (D) after his name, and is a longtime friend of the Clintons going back to his state trooper days when he escorted then Governor Bill Clinton during the 1992 presidential election, and supported Hillary to the bitter end during her unsuccessful presidential primary company. I reward that loyalty with loyalty.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

24. And that's why runoffs are a good thing. -nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. For Some Reason We Don't Have Run Offs In Florida

Then everbody could have just voted their conscience.

[meeshrox]

26. And so here I sit...in Tampa with this bummer of a decision

and I've been waiting to do early-voting until I can determine who can beat Rubio. That's really my best option at this point. If neither look viable by Friday, I'll vote for who should really win, Meek. That's how I'm trying to handle this...it's a shit deal!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

27. Your good humor about hosting and abetting an orchestrated smear of a Dem candidate is refreshing.

Nobody could have known that stuff was lies... unless they were a regular reader of DU and the posters involved.

This was one of the lowest days in DU history and you really ought to know your own site well enough to at least not be part of the problem.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

28. Do Crist and Meek together outpoll Rubio?

If not, who to vote for in Florida is as much a free choice as in Ohio, sadly.

[LoZoccolo]

29. My proposal to you: ban all discussion of both races.

People can take it somewhere else. I understand your strategy of letting the most liberal feasible candidate win, and generally agree with it. But making an exception to the "only support Democrats" rule opens the board up to two tireless canards:

1. "You let us support a third-party candidate in 2010 so why can't we support this other one?"
2. The all-time classic "but the Democrat and Republican are the same in this race so the third-party candidate is the more liberal alternative".

Making an exception leaves the board with a few vulnerabilities which could be used to inundate us with tiresome balderdash and vexatious poppycock for years go come. It is just like those people who say that "Democratic Underground" means "small-D democrat" just to make you waste time copying and pasting the rules, who try to wear on reasonable people with their giggery-pokery.

[Skinner]

30. That is something we considered.

But honestly, I don't think this is a particularly difficult idea to grasp. If anyone has even a rudimentary grasp for nuance and/or math, they will get the whole principle of "Don't split the vote and hand the election to the enemy."

[LoZoccolo]

44. Oh yeah; you know that and I know that.

But it continuously remains the single most controversial issue here as far as I cant can tell. The other issues kind-of come and go but this is like the universal stone-in-the-shoe that works its way into other issues. You might have noticed that I think about it quite a bit and I think I've found out what's behind it: for a person with a demand to make of the Democratic Party, the tactic of threatening to screw up an election by not voting/voting third-party offers the most bang for the buck. On the Internet, it is percieved that there is little cost of time, money, or even reputation (if you do it anonymously) to try to make the Democrats scared of losing by creating the impression of a mutiny. I say "percieved" to have little cost because I don't think it's really true; the cost of wasting other activists' time through infighting is something to consider, but then again, the "action liberals" can immunize themselves from this infighting by ignoring it. The cost of making non-destructive change to the Democratic Party - by gaining consensus so that primary candidates which support the demand being made can get elected in both the primary and general elections - is seen as more costly than the both the cost and risk involved in pursuing what I've termed "splinterism". And then there's the question of how many of the mutineers engage in one strategy on the Internet and another in "real life".

I know I'm somewhat obsessed with this issue, but I think that the "splinterist" strategy is so easy and addictive to some people, and such a vulnerability to the use of the Internet for activism, that I want to promote awareness and vigiliance of this phenomenon and seek ways to minimize its negative impact.

ON EDIT: "as far as I cant tell"? I need more sleep.

[Vickers]

31. I really wish that people couldn't advocate for a Repuke over a Dem on this site

And Crist is a Repuke, through and through.

[LAGC]

45. Crist is an ex-Repuke.

He's been thoroughly disowned by the Republican Party.

[seafan]

32. A Rubio win would devastate not only Florida's future, but national politics.

This is a groomed-from-the-cradle, younger facsimile of Jeb Bush, created and nurtured by Jeb Bush.


Your analysis is correct, Skinner.

Crist is, indeed, the candidate with the best chance of knocking out Rubio. Public Policy Polling reported on October 12:

When the matchup is limited to Rubio and Crist, however, the two are knotted at 46% each.

IMHO, consistently-third-place Meek dropping out at this point is highly unlikely.


The harsh reality is that a Rubio win will be infinitely more damaging than sending Governor Crist to the Senate.


But, we the people still have an ace in the hole. Our votes.

The only way the people can stop Rubio will be to cast a vote for Governor Crist. As painful as it is to acknowledge, a vote for Meek is a sure future with Rubio polluting the US Senate and a calculated step closer to Jeb Bush's wildest dreams of taking over the White House.

How's this for Halloween: A Jeb Bush/Marco Rubio ticket in '12... I am not one for exaggeration, however, I distinctly envision this very ominous probability.



The distress I am feeling about this race is akin to screaming for help in a nightmare that no one hears.



The extremist right knows what's going down with this election.

“Florida is a hill to die on for conservatives.”

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Bush And Rubio Can't Run Together Because The Constitution Prevents Two People From The Same State

Being Pres. And Vice Pres.

[Vickers]

34. That's why Cheney had to quickly change his residency to Wyoming.

Remember that? They were cheating and lying before they even took office,

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. But At Least They Had The Cloak Of Ambuguity As To Cheney's Residence

Here, you have the ex-governor and senator from the same state.

[seafan]

41. It would be a very simple thing for Texan Jeb Bush to re-establish residency back there.

I wouldn't put it past this family to manipulate that minor detail.


'My, but Texas has ALWAYS been home to me. Besides, most of my family is still there, and some of them are gettin' up in age, you know... I'd be a nothingburger if I weren't such a family man..'


I can hear it right now.

[bagimin]

43. We voted for Crist today because Rubio is more radical and

dangerous than Jeb and he's young, handsome and we believe looking to the white house.

[Fla_Democrat]

47. Looks like we cancel each other then.

:hi:





:smoke:

[The Backlash Cometh]

36. In the Florida situation, I disagree, for this reason:

The people who are not going to vote for Meek are Tallahassee insiders, racist Southern Democrats and the trial lawyers who know how Florida works. There is a ring of lawyers who are a crooked bunch here in Florida and I'm going to spend the better part of the near future proving it. Now, if we win all the other races, it's worth it to lose this one to Rubio because it sends a message to the Florida corrupt bastards and bigots in the Dem party. And this is the message: Learn to get along with minorities because your time in power is up.

Okay, I said it. Until I find an opportunity to say it again...

[Skinner]

40. I agree with some of what you are saying.

Having Meek on the ballot helps other Democrats.

To be honest, I am skeptical that Meek dropping out would be enough to help Crist. So the loss to other Dems would not be worth the risk.

[The Backlash Cometh]

51. I don't want to get maudlin but,

:fistbump: & :hug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. I Voted For Meek

However my best friend who is African American and whom I have written about on this board many times because of his kindness, his service to his country, his commitment to racial harmony, and Democratic principles was toying with the idea of voting for Crist to stop Rubio when it looked like he had a legitimate chance to do so. I should add he walks the walk as well as talking the talk. He makes large donations to Democratic candidates and the Southern Poverty Law Center. He has a commendation from the Southern Poverty Law Center which is prominently displayed at his home next to the Bronze Stars he got from Korea and Viet Nam.

I suspect he like me ended up voting for Meek when he concluded Crist was no longer a viable option to stop Rubio and if you have to vote for a losing candidate you might as well vote for the one who most closely aligns with your interest and values.

There are a lot of Florida liberals and progressives who voted for or thought about voting for Crist for the sole purpose of stopping Rubio who aren't racists, trial lawyers, or Tallahassee insiders.

[TheKentuckian]

39. If Democrats would vote for the Democrat then Meek would win easy in Florida

It is as always the "sensible centrist"/Reagan Democrats that are giving it away.

There is a fair chunk that just wants to vote Republican, just not Teabagger. They feel the answer to the fundies and extremist is to take advantage of our "big tent" mentality, bring in the corporate dollars, and roll the soft on principle chumps that need to seek compromise regardless of how completely jacked up the other side is.

Chain Gang Charlie is solidly a right winger. He is not and has never been a moderate, just like Anthony fucking Kennedy is about a universe away from moderate and numbskull and/or corporate Democrats insist on labeling him despite being easily one of the ten most conservative jurist on the high court on a century.

Shame on Reichish, racist leaning, and bandwagon Florida Democrats for not supporting Meek and sitting the far and extreme right and at least voting for the former cop, center right Democrat.
Don't cry a bit. You folks had the power to defeat the right but got caught up figuring which of the Bushbot, people hater you'd prefer.

[The Backlash Cometh]

42. They found the Florida Dem's Achille's Heel.

Many Democrats in Florida are not true Dems. They are wheeler and dealers. The only thing they're sure of is not to vote for the minority candidate.

[madfloridian]

46. You are condemning a lot of good people, good Democrats

That's a shame.

[TheKentuckian]

62. No I'm not just the ones that fit my description.

You don't have to put on every glass slipper that comes your way. I'm not responsible for the money changer Democrats in Kentucky, the Republicrats in Kentucky, or the corporate water carrying Democrats.

I'm happy to offend the Chain Gang Charlie fan club though. The dude is a solid right winger that became "moderate" because of a hard line extremist out flanked him and because he is a craven politician.

[madfloridian]

67. Don't refer to thoughtful Dems as the Chain Gang Charlie fan club

It is a serious issue, and treating us with scorn is harmful.

[LAGC]

48. I noticed Obama isn't endorsing anyone in the RI governor's race.

RI Dem: Obama can 'shove it' for not endorsing me

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101025/ap_on_el_gu/us_ri_governor_caprio

PROVIDENCE, R.I. – The Democratic candidate for Rhode Island governor, widely seen as more conservative than the independent seeking to lead the heavily Democratic state, said Monday that President Barack Obama can "shove it" after learning Obama would not endorse him.

[Motown_Johnny]

50. splitting the vote to come in 2nd and splitting the vote to come in 3rd has the same effect

you are still "throwing" the election to the other side.


I don't live in either state so it isn't my place to tell people how they should vote. I respect their right to do what they feel is best.


I would like to point out that in both the cases that you mentioned the "Republican" candidate is a tea bagger who has won the nomination. It can easily be argued that any victory by this wing of their party will do nothing other than energize it. In the long run it may be better to send as many tea baggers packing as soon as possible and hoping that all their followers stop showing up to vote for a couple of cycles.

[jaysunb]

52. I don't envy progressives in either State

In R.I., if I had not already made up my mind between Chafee & Caprio before today, I'd go for Chafee for several reasons : He's an acual convert. Saw/sees the Republicans for the destructive force they are -in their present form- and he becomes a poster boy for many other former "moderate" republicans looking to become the " Lowell Wickert" (sic) of their day. < fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republicans that believe in governing don't bother me at all>
And I really , really didn't like the outburst by Caprio today. :evilfrown:

Florida is a lot tougher. I never liked Specter, even after he switched,mainly because he'd been such an ass as a Republican. I never felt he could be trusted, so, I'm having a hard time "feeling" Crist. I DO believe he'll hang w/ the Democrats ( pretty sure THAT deal has been sealed, witness lack of all out support for Meek by the Admin. ) and if we're going to get a R at least it won't be Rubio.
Normally, I don't ever go outside the party, but true to my vote in your poll, I'm an ACTION liberal. I'm willing to " give some, to get some." http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9378544

Meek can't win Florida. Period. As a Black Democrat, it pains me to come to that conclusion, but if I lived in Florida, I'd have to get w/ Crist. :(

[Bryn]

53. What do you think of Arkansas? We're trying...

I am a native of Florida now living in Arkansas (moved here 4 years ago). I've met Bob Graham and he was awesome guy! Now I am supporting Alan Grayson, sending messages out because I lived in Orlando for 7 years, my family still there.

Ok, now here in Arkansas, we're having a very tough time with Blanche Lincoln. She won't reach out to Bill Halter's supporters. She failed us over and over. So we progressives got together and campaign for John Gray, a Green. I know you think it helps a repug wins, but here in Arkansas it's a 4 way race. If you had heard John Gray speak during debate, you'd know he's a right one to vote for. I asked him why he went over to the Green Party. He explained: He was told to pay 250,000 upfront and he asked how he'd get that kind of money, he was told to get it from corporations which he didn't want to. He wanted to be a Senate for The People so he changed over to the Green Party even though he's actually a FDR democrat and supported FDR platform and more. Also he is a huge fan of Paul Wellstone. He promised to caucus with the democrats.

Anyway, we in Arkansas are now organizing for 2012, working together through facebook. I don't know if this is true, but the latest poll is showing that Trevor Drown (an independent) is taking great many votes from John Boozman. I hope it's true because Boozman is much worse. I cannot stand him, he's really a big dumb one, just taking orders from his leader.

We will see how it goes for this November, but we are working hard for 2012 to make Arkansas go blue/green.

[Stinky The Clown]

54. But you can't do that

You can only advocate for the non dem where voting dem will help the repub unless the repub is a former repub who is more to the left of the dem, assuming the dem is from a corrupt dem family in which case the sins of the father are visited upon the son, so long as the son isn't taking votes from . . . .

. . . . or something like that.

I think.

I'm getting my head tied in knots.

[Skinner]

59. I believe that your characterization of my OP is not correct.

Some of the arguments you ascribe to me do not appear in my post. And I believe the point I am making is not nearly as complicated as you make it sound.

My OP is respectfully argued, and was posted in good faith. I am happy to explain or defend my point of view to anyone who cares to argue on the merits. In fact, I would consider it a sign of respect if you did me the favor of politely explaining any errors or weaknesses in my OP.

If there is any part of my OP that you do not understand, I would be happy to do you the favor of answering any questions you may have.

[Stinky The Clown]

63. I perfectly understand your argument

My post to which you replied was sarcasm and satire. I was making no argument. I was being a smartass. I thought that would have been obvious. I'm sorry it was misunderstood.

[Skinner]

64. Yes, I understand you were being sarcastic.

When someone is sarcastic, I typically read it as a way to disagree with a post. If that was not your intent, I apologize.

[Art_from_Ark]

55. Arkansas really isn't a 4-way race

Drown and Gray together are polling at less than 8%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_boozman_vs_lincoln-1186.html

It's going to be either Lincoln or Boozman. Period. And if you want to know what a Northwest Arkansas Republican is like, I suggest you access radio station KURM on the Internet (if you're out of the reception area) and listen to the interviews they have with the Republican candidates.

[Skinner]

60. If what you say is correct, then Arkansas sounds like a fairly straightforward case...

...of two major party candidates and two potential spoilers.

I would argue that the responsible progressive vote is for the Democrat, Blanche Lincoln.

[Art_from_Ark]

66. Here's the deal with Arkansas

During the past 80 years, no state on the mainland has come close to matching Arkansas' record for sending Democrats to the US Senate (solidly Democratic except for one six-year fluke). We have sent some remarkable people to Capitol Hill, including Senator J. William Fulbright of Fulbright Scholarship fame. In contrast, the only Republican to represent Arkansas in the Senate during that time, Tim Hutchinson (brother of Bush appointee Asa Hutchinson) helped lead the three-ring impeachment circus against fellow Arkansan Bill Clinton. The current Republican candidate hails from just down the road from the Hutchinsons and listening to him on the radio, I can't tell any difference whatsoever between these guys.

As for the Green candidate Gray, he might be a good guy and have some good ideas, but at this stage he has no chance to win and will only siphon away votes from Lincoln.

[clyrc]

57. I voted for Meek because I could not vote for Crist

I simply couldn't do it. I went round and round about it, and I wouldn't condemn anyone else for doing it, but I just couldn't.

[BeFree]

58. It is that simple

If the Democrats would vote for the true and only Democrat then Crist would know his place and Rubio will be looking over his shoulder.

As it is, Crist will still know he can fool a whole bunch of dems, and Rubio will be riding high and laughing at the dems who allowed him to be elected.

I hope Meek beats Crist. That would be the best message possible. DU should come down on the side of sending the best possible message: Dem beats puke!!

[xchrom]

61. recommend -- thanks skinner -- good read. nt

[kentuck]

65. I agree about Florida...

Charlie Crist should have been offered a job he couldn't refuse to get him to drop out of the race. But it is too late now.

But there was no guarantee that most of Crist's votes would have gone to Meek but most of Meek's votes would have gone to Crist. Crist would have won if Meek had not been in the race.

But Democrats should have been encouraged to vote for Meek and not split their vote with Crist. He could have won if Democats were united because Crist divided the Repubs.