10/22 Richard Charnin Midterms Forecast: Dems need 75% turnout & 75% of undecideds to win House

[tiptoe]

Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud    bit.ly/baN7Sa

( bottom )

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)         source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm     

October 22, 2010

The House and Senate forecast models include a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls and assume the election is held today.

All Pre-election polls interview registered (RV) voters; likely voters (LV) are a sub-sample based on the likely voter cutoff model (LVCM). But realclearpolitics.com and the media focus on likely voters. During the last month in every election cycle, RV polls are largely unreported by the media.

Approximately 70% of registered voters polled are likely voters. Recent Generic polls show that Democrats comprise 48% of registered voters who are not considered likely to vote compared to 34% for the Republicans.

The LVCM assigns a weight of zero to all respondents falling below the cutoff. But these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting. The number of "Yes" answers required to qualify as a likely voter is based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more "Yes" answers are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to the GOP.

Oct. 22, 2010     House and Senate Forecast Summary

 

 

Average Poll Share

Dem

 

Projected Share (%)

 

Simulated Seat Proj

WinProb

 
Senate

Weighted Average
RV (18) & LV (19)
LV (18) & LV (19)
Difference

CNN / Time
Weighted Average

RV
LV sub-sample
Diff

UnWeighted Average

RV
LV sub-sample
Diff

Generic Ballot

Recent Polls
RV
LV
Difference
Total

2010 Polls
Non-Rasmussen
Rasmussen (LV)
Difference
Total

Polls


37
37




18
18


18
18




23
28

51


137
40

177

Dem
%

45.5
42.6
 2.8



49.4
46.8
 2.6

46.5
44.6
 1.9



44.1
41.3
 2.8
42.6


43.3
37.2
 6.1
41.9

GOP
%

44.5
46.6
(2.1)



40.4
45.3
(4.9)

41.3
45.7
(4.4)



45.2
47.8
(2.6)
46.6


45.5
45.3
 0.3
45.5

Spread
%

0.9
(3.9)
4.9



8.9
1.5
7.4

5.2
(1.1)
6.3



(1.1)
(6.5)
5.4
(4.1)


(2.2)
(8.1)
5.9
(3.6)

 

Dem
%

50.5
48.0
 2.4



54.5
50.7
 3.7

52.6
49.4
 3.2



49.5
46.8
 2.7
48.0


48.9
46.0
 2.9
48.2

GOP
%

49.5
52.0
(2.4)



45.5
49.3
(3.7)

47.4
50.6
(3.2)



50.5
53.3
(2.7)
52.0


51.1
54.1
(2.9)
51.8

 

Dem


52.7
50.7
 2.0



11
8
3

-
-
-



213
201
 12
207


211
198
 13
208

GOP


45.3
47.3
(2.0)



7
10
(3)

-
-
-



222
234
(12)
228


224
237
(13)
227

GOP


0%
4%
-



-

-







65%
99%
-
92%


75%
100%
-
90%

 

Senate Forecast

Based on the latest LV polls, the Monte Carlo Simulation projects a 51-47 seat Democratic majority.
The GOP has a 4% probability of winning the Senate.

Based on mix of RV and LV polls the Democrats will have a 53-45 majority.
The GOP has a 0% win probability.

CNN/Time has posted 18 polls (RV and corresponding LV-subsample polls).

The true composite average must be weighted by state voting population.
It would be misleading to show only the un-weighted average.

There is a 7.5% difference in margin between the RV and LV weighted average.
The Democrats lead the RV poll weighted average by 49.4-40.4%, a 9.0% margin.
The Democrats lead the LV poll weighted average by 46.8-45.3%, a 1.5% margin.

There is a 3.7% difference in margin between the weighted- and unweighted-average RV poll.
There is a 2.6% difference in margin between the weighted- and unweighted average LV poll.

House Generic Ballot

Starting Oct. 11, RCP no longer includes RV polls in the Generic Average.

The GOP has a 1.1% lead in the latest 23 RV polls and a 6.5% margin in the latest 28 LV polls.

Based on the latest 28 LV Generic polls, the GOP has a 99% probability of winning the House (234 seats).
Based on the latest 23 RV polls, the GOP has a 65% win probability (222 seats).

In 2010, 40 of the 177 polls listed are Rasmussen LV polls, in which the GOP leads by 8.1%.
The GOP leads by just 2.2% in the other 137 polls.
Apparently RCP believes that Rasmussen is a non-partisan pollster since he is included in the RCP average of “non-partisan affiliated polls”.

In the latest Gallup LV polls, the GOP leads by 56-39 in the low turnout model and by 53-42 in the high turnout model.
The full 3000-sample RV is not shown. The GOP leads by 47-44.
The Democrats lead by 48-35% among the 1100 RV respondents who were excluded by the LV-cutoff.

Not a single Zogby Generic 2010 poll is listed by RCP.
The latest Zogby LV shows a 45-45 tie.


The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)

In 2004, there were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000. Nearly 60% of newly registered voters were Democrats for Kerry. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic tsunami gave them control of both houses. In 2008, there were approximately 15 million new voters, of whom 70% voted for Obama. All pre-election polls interview registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the full Registered Voter (RV) sample. LV polls exclude most "new" registered voters–first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election.
...
– more here and see Simon –

Projecting Voter Turnout

In 2010, Generic RV and LV polls project that approximately 70% of registered voters will vote.
Democrats comprise 58% of registered 2-party voters who do not pass the LVCM screen.

Pre-election Kerry and Obama poll shares of "unlikely voters" ('RV minus LV') closely matched their National Exit Poll share of "new" voters ('DNV').

In 2004, final pre-election polls* indicated that Kerry had a 57.7% share of RV deemed by the LVCM "unlikely to vote" ('RV minus LV').
The '04 12:22am Prelim Nat'l Exit Poll showed Kerry had a  57%  share of first-time voters and other RV who did not vote in 2000 ('DNV').

In 2008, the final pre-election polls indicated that Obama had a 73.3% share of the "unlikely to vote" ('RV minus LV').
The vote-count-matched Final Nat'l Exit Poll showed him with a 71% share of the first-time and other voters who did not vote in 2004 ('DNV').

*NOTE:The respectively-aggregated 2004 RV & LV-subsample final polls of CBS+Gallup+ABC+FOX+Pew give independent confirmation to the Preliminary exit poll of 2004 (Kerry, 51-48%, 1% MoE), not to the Final that was "forced" to match the recorded vote-count (Bush 51-48% and secret). For 2008, the equivalent preliminary exit poll has been suppressed by the corporate consortium of news outlets FOX, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS, NBC.

The projected turnout of registered voters is the ratio:
Turnout = LV poll sample / RV poll sample

The Democratic two-party share of unlikely voters is the ratio of unlikely Dem RVs to unlikely Dem and GOP RVs.
Dem share = Dem [RV-LV] / (Dem [RV-LV] + GOP [RV-LV])

Forecasting, Sensitivity Analysis and Win Probabilities based on RV and LV Polls (see source)

Pollsters Are Paid To Predict the Recorded Vote - Not the True Vote (see here)

The Fraud Component

Historically, projections based on final pre-election LV polls underestimated voter turnout and yet closely matched impossible final exit polls and fraudulent recorded vote counts. Projections based on final pre-election RV polls (adjusted for undecided voters) were a close match to the unadjusted preliminary exit polls and the True Vote.

Pre-election Model:
  Recorded vote share = LV poll projection = RV poll projection + Fraud component

Post-election Model:
  Recorded vote share = Final Exit Poll = Unadjusted Preliminary Exit Poll + Fraud component

Senate:

Projected GOP LV (Recorded) Share (CNN/Time RV & LV):
LV Poll Projection = 50.6 = 47.4 + Fraud component
Fraud component = 3.2%.

Assuming the RV projection represents the True Vote (zero fraud):
Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a GOP gain of 2 seats (Table 5).

Projected GOP House Vote Share:
Share = 53.3 = 50.5 + Fraud component
Fraud component = 2.8%

Assuming the RV projection represents the True Vote (zero fraud):
Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a GOP gain of 4 seats (Table 7).

Undecided Voters, Turnout and Election Fraud

In 1988, 11 million votes were uncounted; in 2000, 6 million; in 2004, 4 million; in 2006, 3 million.

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote count shares. Projections based on the final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls. Undecided voters typically break heavily for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challengers, but many pollsters did not allocate accordingly. Democratic voter turnout was underestimated by the pre-election LV polls (see 2004 Final Pre-election Polls).                   bit.ly/d2yEQh                  bit.ly/claROe               bit.ly/aW4gYX

Final exit polls are always "forced" to match the recorded vote count...(i.e. the final pre-election LV polls). The underlying assumption is that the recorded vote count is correct (i.e. zero fraud). In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Polls required an impossible turnout of returning Bush voters (110% and 103%, respectively). In the 2004 Final NEP (13660 respondents), the Bush vote shares were increased dramatically over the 12:22am Preliminary NEP (1% MoE, 13047 respondents). For 2008, the NEP media consortium of news outlets FOX, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC has suppressed results of fifty-one unadjusted-state and three un-forced preliminary-national exit polls.
...
– more here (scroll down) –

Table 1

2010 Midterms:Senate and House Forecast Model
Senate Forecast Simulation Summary

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate    bit.ly/azDXlw 

22-Oct

Senate

Current
100

Dem
57

GOP
41

Ind
2

Simulation¹
Forecast Seats

Poll Type
RV(18) & LV(19)
LV(18) & LV(19)

Count
37
37

Dem
52.7
50.8

GOP
45.3
47.2

GOP Win Prob²
0.0%
4.0%

CNN/Time
Weighted Avg
RV
LV sub-sample

UnWeightd Avg
RV
LV sub-sample

18
18


18
18

Poll Share

Dem

Projection

Dem
49.4%
46.8%


46.5%
44.6%

GOP
40.4%
45.3%


41.3%
45.7%

Margin
9.0%
1.5%


5.2%
(1.1%)

Dem
54.5%
50.7%


52.6%
49.4%

GOP
45.5%
49.3%


47.4%
50.6%

ASSUMPTIONS
Fraud
MoE
UVA

Base Case
0.0%
4.0%
50.0%

 
Vote-share deviation to GOP, 1988-2004
Poll margin of error
Undecided Voter Allocation to GOP

Seats
Current

Dem
57

GOP
41
 

Ind
2
 

 

Projection (table)
Seats
RV&LV
LV

RV&LV
Flip to
Lean
Safe
Tossup

Dem
54
51


1
1
10
6

GOP
44
47


4
3
17
0

NOTES:
¹ Average of a 200 election trial simulation
² Probability of winning a 50 senate seat majority

 

 

22-Oct

*tossup

Poll Type

Poll Share %

Dem %

 

Projection Share (%)

 

GOP

 

Within

Weighted Avg
Weighted Avg


AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA

CO
CT
DE
FL
GA

HI
IA
ID
IL
IN

KS
KY
LA
MD
MO

NC
ND
NH
NV
NY1

NY2
OH
OK
OR
PA

SC
SD
UT
WA
VT

WI
WV

 
37
37

Held By
R
R
D
R
D

D*
D
D
R
R

D
R
R
D*
D

R
R*
R
D
R

R
D
R
D
D

D
R
R
D
D*

R
R
R
D*
D

D*
D

RV&LV

OnlyLV


RV

RV

RV

RV
RV
RV
RV





RV



RV


RV




RV
RV

RV
RV


RV




RV


RV
RV

Dem
45.5
42.6


22
30
42
37
56

47
56
61
31
34

68
37
27
42
34

27
46
33
54
39

40
25
44
43
60

67
43
24
54
45

30
30
25
48
64

45
45

GOP
44.5
46.6


36
59
53
51
37

44
37
32
42
52

20
55
64
38
50

67
46
54
38
50

48
69
51
32
33

39
49
67
37
45

70
70
52
44
29

48
38

Margin
0.9
(3.9)


(14)
(29)
(11)
(14)
19

3
19
29
(11)
(18)

48
(18)
(37)
4
(16)

(40)
0
(21)
16
(11)

(8)
(44)
(7)
11
27

28
(6)
(43)
17
0

(40)
(40)
(27)
4
35

(3)
7

Dem
50.5
48.0


43.0
35.5
44.5
43.0
59.5

51.5
59.5
64.5
44.5
41.0

74.0
41.0
31.5
52.0
42.0

30.0
50.0
39.5
58.0
44.5

46.0
28.0
46.5
55.5
63.5

64.0
47.0
28.5
58.5
50.0

30.0
30.0
36.5
52.0
67.5

48.5
53.5

GOP
49.5
52.0


57.0
64.5
55.5
57.0
40.5

48.5
40.5
35.5
55.5
59.0

26.0
59.0
68.5
48.0
58.0

70.0
50.0
60.5
42.0
55.5

54.0
72.0
53.5
44.5
36.5

36.0
53.0
71.5
41.5
50.0

70.0
70.0
63.5
48.0
32.5

51.5
46.5

Win Prob²




100%
100%
100%
100%
0%

23%
0%
0%
100%
100%

0%
100%
100%
16%
100%

100%
50%
100%
0%
100%

98%
100%
96%
0%
0%

0%
93%
100%
0%
50%

100%
100%
100%
16%
0%

77%
4%

Flip
5





GOP













GOP


Dem





GOP
















GOP

MoE
10









CO








IL



KY




NC

NH




OH


PA




WA


WI
WV

[Pab Sungenis]

1. I'd like to believe there is hope but

TIA saying there is hope leads me to believe there is none. TIA's methods are a joke, and his predictions and claims of proving vote fraud are ludicrous.

[tiptoe]

4. Suppression of 3 prelim-national & 51 unadjusted-state exit polls in 2008 shows the MSM is desperate

The GOP Election Fraud machine is exposed. The National Election Pool -- comprised of news outlets FOX,AP,CNN,NBC,CBS, and ABC is complicit with the suppression of the polls.

Charnin's model of analysis is based on facts. If you assume the Recorded Vote Count is accurate -- like Nate Silver must believe to rate pollster reliability on success in predicting vote counts -- then you also have to assume the 2004 and 2008 Final National Exit Polls are correct: Final NEP demographics numbers are always "adjusted" (forced!) to make the bottomline share match the recorded vote count.

But then you are confronted with explaining the internal inconsistencies and factual impossibilities of the "adjusted" Final NEP numbers -- i.e., the weights and shares, after they've been twisted to force the match with the vote count share. 103% turnout and 110% turnout of returning Bush voters in '04 and '08 respectively. Only in Nate Silver reality.

If the Final Nationtal Exit Poll numbers are impossible, then by simple logic, so, too, must be the basis for those impossible numbers: the recorded vote count itself.

The 2004 Preliminary exit poll weights and shares were independently confirmed by CBS+Gallup+ABC+FOX+Pew...the 12:22am exit poll in which VOTERS -- not secret machine counts -- told interviewers Kerry won, 51-48%, < 1% Margin of error.

Cheney was called a traitor by Joe Wilson this weekend. Hundreds of Thousands of respectasble traditional, lifelong GOPers have abandoned the hijacked GOP. (See Susan Eisenhower, Reflections Leaving the Party)

The Bush admin traitors, murderers, war criminals and torturers were empowered by election fraud.

Their lying-reality is unraveling.

[LiberalFighter]

2. We don't need a 75% turnout for Democrats.

We didn't even get that in 2008. We just need a better turnout than in 2006.

[tiptoe]

5. Try 89.6% turnout in 2008, 88.5% in 2004 (0.3% Margin of Error)

Reported Rates of Voting and Registration: 1996 to 2008

[usregimechange]

3. I appreciate the work it took to post this but I'll wait for the executive summary

[tiptoe]

6. 1- Senate Forecast- Based on latest LV, MC Simulation projects 51-47 Dem Majority--GOP= 4% win prob.

"GOP win prob" = Probability of GOP winning a 50 Senate-seat majority, if the election were held today.

See: Table 1, Senate Forecast Simulation Summary.

[tiptoe]

7. 2-Senate Forecast- Based on RV&LV poll mix, Dems will have a 53-45 majority; GOP=ZERO % win prob, if

...if the election were held today.

Current Senate Seats: 57 Dem, 41 GOP, 2 Ind:

Table 2:

Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning
Probability of GOP winning

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

seats= 41 total:
seats= 42 total:
seats= 43 total:
seats= 44 total:
seats= 45 total:
seats= 46 total:
seats= 47 total:
seats= 48 total:
seats= 49 total:
seats= 50 total:
seats= 51 total:

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
9.0%
18.0%
33.0%
22.5%
12.5%
3.0%
1.0%

exact, at least
exact, at least
exact, at least
exact, at least
exact, at least
exact, at least
exact, at least
exact, at least
exact, at least
exact, at least
exact, at least

100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
99.0%
90.0%
72.0%
39.0%
16.5%
4.0%
1.0%

 

See Table 5: for
GOP Forecast: Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote Switch
Undecided Voter Allocation and Vote-Switch increments applied to RV poll projection (zero fraud, starting assumption)

 

[tiptoe]

8. RealClearPolitics.com == LV-only final-week polls, Unweighted Avgs, unallocated Undecided Voters.

Table 1

CNN/Time
Weighted Avg
RV
LV sub-sample

UnWeightd Avg
RV
LV sub-sample

18
18


18
18

Poll Share

Dem

Projection

Dem
49.4%
46.8%


46.5%
44.6%

GOP
40.4%
45.3%


41.3%
45.7%

Margin
9.0%
1.5%


5.2%
(1.1%)

Dem
54.5%
50.7%


52.6%
49.4%

GOP
45.5%
49.3%


47.4%
50.6%

RealClearPolitics.com conveys the very bottom of the four categories above and ignores the Weighted Averages of both RV and LV-subsamples as well as the RV Un-Weighted Avg in final weeks of the pre-election campaign, as it did in 2004. It's all part of the pre-election polling scam perpetrated on America by the RIGHT WING TRASH that hijacked the GOP, preparing the cover for election day vote-count fraud, further covered post-election by the forcing of the Final NEP to match the fraudulent vote count, and, in 2008, the radical-rightwing-GOP-controlled MSM went the extra mile with its news outlets FOX,CNN,AP,NBC,CBS,ABC withholding release of the three un-forced Preliminary NEP and the 51 unadjusted-state exit polls of its own hired exit pollster. That's how desperate they are. In 2004, those 51 unadjusted-state exit polls showed Kerry winning 52-47, confirming the 12:22am Preliminary exit poll's 51-48 Kerry win, with the latter also independently-confirmed by the final pre-election RV&LV polls of Gallup,CBS,Fox,ABC, and Pew.

The average pollster projection was off by 6%(!) in 2004 (the equivalent of 7.5 million voters unweighted by "projections", based on 125.7 mil votes cast).

In 2008, early-vote returns for Obama suggested to one political analyst on Oct 29 that the "Likely Voter" polls should be ignored and that final RV polls should be heeded. Indeed, 89.6% of the registered voters turned out, yet RCP projected on a basis on only LV polls. Moranic or Deceptive?

[tiptoe]

9. 3- Dem Senate Wins: Effect of Turnout of LV-excluded RegisteredVoters & Vote-Switch Fraud % to GOP

See Table 1b.

1) "The Likely Voter Cutoff Model assigns a weight of zero to all respondents falling below the cutoff. But these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting. The number of "Yes" answers required to qualify as a likely voter is based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more "Yes" answers are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to the GOP."

2) The evidence of systemic GOP election fraud is reflected in the shifts of vote-margins from the exit polls of voters to the recorded (secret) counts of their votes, 1988 to 2004, that overwhelmingly favors the GOP. If the vote counts were fair, the shifts would be random, 50/50 splits. The shifts are nearly 100% to the favor of the GOP.

"It's not the exit polls, morans...It's the vote count, stupid."
Any method aiming to establish pollster prediction reliability by reference to fraudulent vote counts as a standard for comparison is obviously grossly flawed, if not fraudulent itself. Such is a method employed by NY Times' Nate Silver.

Charnin's comments and questions for Nate Silver: here.

The 238 exit poll numbers in Charnin's Historic WPD study are found in polling firm Edison-Mitofsky's 2004 Evaluation Report. The equivalent post-election exit-pollster report for the 2008 election has been suppressed by the consortium of news outlets Fox,CNN,AP,CBS,ABC,NBC. That self-annointed corporate "National" Election Pool withholds confirmation of the truth re Obama's True margin of victory, 22+ million votes.

 

[tiptoe]

10. 4- CNN/Time 18 RV poll UnWtd Avg = 5.2% Dem advantage...RV Weighted Avg = 9.0% Dem advantage

The RV polls become more relevant than LV polls when projected turnout is high.

Newsweek latest projection is for a 91% turnout! That would be higher than turned out for Obama's 2008 victory.

[tiptoe]

11. 5- Based on the latest 23 RV polls, the GOP has a 65% win probability (222 seats). nt

[Tippy]

12. I don't know how I missed this thread.....but I have spent

most of the last two days taking my daughter to her Doctors appointments.....didn't finish up until about two hours ago....Thanks for your post tiptoe....it is well worth a K&R even if it is late getting here.....