Three-way races in 2010. Why isn't the split vote working to our advantage?

[rucky]

Florida: The Republican is leading and we're cheering on the ex-Republican to split the vote, but it's failing.

Alaska: The Republican is slipping with the latest scandal, but the Republican Write-In candidate may have a shot against the Dem.

Rhode Island: Dems split their support between the Dem and Ex-Republican Lincoln Chafee

In these individual races, I've heard perfectly good explanations for why this is happening. But I have to point out that when there's even a whisper of a third-party challenge coming from the left, it's soundly shot down as political suicide. These races are a direct challenge to the conventional wisdom that a third party candidate will split the vote in favor of the outlier.

It also challenges the conventional wisdom about partisanship in America. It's the Right that's running these challenges. It's the Left that seems to be the ones struggling with who to throw their support to, and in 2 of 3 cases, they're leaning towards the ex-republican.

Is running a third party really all that damaging? Why doesn't the minority right seem to have problems with this strategy?

[rucky]

1. Am I off base, here?

[Skinner]

2. It's shot down because it is usually political suicide.

Independent candidates on the "extremes" (left of the Dem or right of the Repub) have the potential to split the vote and throw the election to the other side. They are rarely viable candidates, just potential spoilers. If there is a viable Dem and a viable Republican in the race, voting third-party is usually self-defeating. The responsible thing is to vote for the major party candidate that is closer to you on the issues. Third party candidates from the extremes tend to only work when one major party fails to field a viable candidate. (eg: Bernie Sanders in VT, where Dems typically decline to field a viable candidate.)

Independent candidates in the middle (somewhere between the two major-party candidates) take votes from both the Dem and the Repub, but they are not a wash because they usually take votes more from one side or the other. If a centrist independent candidate gets enough support to surpass one or both of the major-party candidates, then it really changes the dynamic of the race in ways that are less predictable. (See RI Gov or FL US Senate.)

[rucky]

3. Okay, this makes sense.

I guess the "center" is being pushed out by party "extremes", or they pull themselves out a-la-Crist/Chafee. Lieberman has shown this is a viable strategy for the center. But the challenges are coming from the right this year, so everyone in that position is from the center-right. If Chafee and Murkowski can pull off wins, this could lead to an interesting change in dynamics for both parties in future elections: the viability of the independent candidate.