Latest Senate Polls! 90% chance that Democrats control at least 51 seats

[sabrina 1]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elections/

There are some good stats at the above link on all the races in the Senate and the House.

DEMOCRATS have:

Total Seats .... 48

10 are up re-election

7 of those are running 'strong'

3 are leaning Dem.

REPUBLICANS have:

Total Seats .... 46

23 are up for re-election

12 of those are running 'strong'

11 are leaning Repub.

4 races are a toss-up right now

Those 4 toss- up races are:

1. ALASKA

2. Colorado

3. Illinois

4. W. Virginia

In Alaska, it's a 3 way race with the Dem running behind both Repubs.

In Colorado it's so close right now with Buck (R) leading Bennet (D) by only 1% point.

In W.V. Manchin (D) leads Raese (R) by 1.6% points and

In Illinois, Kirk (R) leads Giannoulias (D) by 1.4% points

It looks like Alaska will get a Repub. but hopefully it won't be Teabagger/Arrest-Reporters Miller who seems to be in trouble right now.

So Dems could get three of those toss up seats which would give them 51 and the majority although they really are too close to call right now.



*************



These are the 3 'Leaning Dem' races where they could pick up three more if things hold.

In California, Boxer has a 4% point lead now over Fiorina

In Connecticut, Blumenthal has a 10% point lead over McMahon. That looks like a Dem win.

And in Washington, Murray has a 3% point lead over Rossi.

If Dems won all three of those races, they would have 54 in the Senate IF they also won 3 of the toss-ups.


And the 11 'Leaning Republican' races. Some of them could turn around for Democrats. I hope Sestak, Feingold and Conway can pull it off.

In the Nevada race, it's hard to believe that Angle is beating Reid by 3% points.

In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold is 7% points behind Johnson.

Florida is listed as 'leaning Republican' but tragically it looks like Rubio will win. He's way ahead of Meeks. But Crist is taking many of the Dem and Ind. votes that probably would have gone to Meek. Hard to say as I'm sure he's getting some moderate Republican votes also.


In Kentucky, Rand Paul is still ahead by 6% points.

In Louisiana, incredibly, Vitter is ahead of Melancon by 12% points. Looks like Vitter will win that one!

But in Pennsylvania, Sestak is closing in on Toomey who is down to a 3% point lead. I think he can do it!!

In New Hampshire Hodes (D) is behind Ayotte by 10% points.

The other four 'leaning Republican' races are Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Arkansas and all four will probably go the Repubs.

At least it's looking a bit better than a few weeks ago. I'm going to be really optimistic. If they get three of the toss-up races, the three 'leaning Dem' races and turn around 3 of the 'leaning Republican' races, they could end up with 57 seats.

But, that is being very optimistic. I think they could end up with at least 54.

[Grown2Hate]

1. Good analysis. How CRAZY would that be to keep the Senate, perhaps even picking up ALASKA,

but LOSING our Majority Leader to a certifiable lunatic? We're in for a HELL of a ride Tuesday night, I do believe... glad I took Wednesday off of work!

[sabrina 1]

2. I don't know how we could win Alaska since the Dem is not

doing great there. I think somewhere in the 20s. But Miller, the lunatic who hires brown shirts and was looking like a win, seems to falling behind with the latest revelations of lies etc. Next to him, Murkowski, the Repub looks like moderate. I liked her interview with Rachel Maddow, one of the few Repubs to speak to Rachel, the other night.

She seemed reasonable and willing to change her mind given new facts. However, I don't know much about her but next to the thug Miller, she looks like a liberal. If we have to lose in Alaska, I would prefer that she win rather than the tea-bagger who thinks it's okay to handcuff the press.

But yes, Reid the Maj. Leader should not be losing in this election, but to a nutcase like Angle?? However, he could still pull it off. There is only a 3% difference between them now. What a disappointment he has been. But again, compared to the teabagger, he's beginning to look good!

[sabrina 1]

4. Well, I was wrong and you were right. There has been a big

change in the Alaska race which makes it possible for the Dem to win after all. He's still behind, but the numbers have changed pretty drastically.

Miller has dropped approx 5% points and those points have gone to the Dem candidate who is now approximately 29%. This is looking like he could actually do it as he's not that far behind the leader, Murkowsky now.

Wish I could edit the OP as this makes a very big difference in that race and could mean one more seat in the Senate.

[sabrina 1]

3. Russ Feingold needs help. He's 7 points down in the latest polls

but that's not insurmountable. There was another analysis that said over one third of voters have still not made up their minds.

Wish I lived in his district but we can phone bank for him.

You can sign up here http://campaign.russfeingold.org/site/PageServer?pagename=volunteer500 if you have any time.

I'd hate to lose him in the Senate.

[Scurrilous]

5. K & R

:thumbsup:

[rufus dog]

6. bookmark this!

The Dems win all three of the leaning Dem States

Worst case scenario on the toss up states is two wins, good chance at three, outside shot of picking up Alaska as the 4th

Dems will win at least one of the leaning Rep states, potentially two or three. (I refuse to believe the WI polls)

So total will be, worst case 53 seats, most likley 55 or 56, outside shot at 58. Either way the media narrative was complete BS, but enough to cost the Dems up to a few seats, (WI, PA, NV) while saving a couple for the Rs (KY and LA - how the hell did we not see wall to wall coverage of Diaper Dave?)

[sabrina 1]

7. I'm with you on Wisconsin. I can't believe Russ Feingold

will lose that race. Harry Reid also and that one is really very close.

And now Alaska is in play which raises the best outcome from a possible 57 to 58.

I am betting on 55 ~ and I do think the media coverage has been very negative. Until I looked at these numbers on HuffPo, I thought it was all over in Congress and the Senate might lose the majority also.