MSNBC's Chuck Todd: "polling is broken" - lack of cell phone data

[chimpymustgo]

Still thinks Dems will lose the House - because this is a "wave" election. But says many of these state polls - including Rasmussen - do not include cell phone/no land-line voters - an dare faulty.

Believe it or not...Joey Scar himself thinks many voters might get into the booth and NOT go for the Rethugs.

Arianna says voters are not rational - operating on their "lizard brains".

This could be interesting.

[malaise]

1. I notice that they are all hedging their bets this morning

Go Dems!! Vote for sanity!!

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. The way he upChucked on Razz was great. and

accurate.

"Badly weighted polls on the cheap," indeed.

Yup, they are hedging fast and furious for a couple of reasons. Their mantra that the voting population, especially democrats, suffered from an enthusiasm gap are proving to be very, very wrong. Early voting is huge in every state that has it. Same with absentee voting. And, reports are leaking out that these early voters are minorities, liberals, and younger. That puts lie to their meme.
Next, their own polls are skewed, and they are beginning to recognize it. lastly, they see an undercurrent of dislike and distaste for the Tea Baggers, meaning that others, Green Liberterian and Democrat, will be doing far better than expected.

the year long attack on Democrats by the MSM is backfiring, and voters and firing back.

[GoCubsGo]

4. One good thing about this...

Their hedging and backpedaling puts a bit of a damper on the "voter fraud" accusations the repugs will scream if they don't win all the seats they expect to win.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

6. yup.

But, you wrongly assume that facts and truth will get in the way of a GOP attack. Hasn't before. Won't stop them this time, either.

Cubbies fan? Did you see that Illinois was voting early at 2x the rate in '08? That is REALLY significant.

[KharmaTrain]

3. It's All About The Narrative...

Pundits love to speak authoritatively...even when its out their asses and nothing gives them more ammo than a poll. Any researcher will tell you that you can find a poll or cherry pick data to prove the moon is made of cheese. It's simple numbers...like a scoreboard that is tossed around in terms of winners and losers rather than on nuance and issues. As the news cycle became 24/7, thus the polls became more and more important. And in an era of consolidation, seems like the opposite applies to polls...they come from anywhere and everywhere. The numbers all get jumbled and the pundits are able to pontificate as there's numbers to justify almost every position this year.

The combination of cellphones and answering machines have made polling a lot more difficult. The sampling universe grows smaller each election and pollsters have few options to update or upgrade their methodology. Also, in midterms there isn't one election but thousands that are based on local issues and personalities. I expect we'll see many surprises in districts that were either ignored or poorly polled or how an upticket race will affect turnout and results.

Overall, however, with so many polls, you can find some trends that do indicate things aren't looking good for Democrats next week but no one knows with any certainty...and those who say they do are fools.

[Bluenorthwest]

15. See I question those 'trends' as well. The polling and punditing

started months before the electorate was engaged at all. This cycle started at Labor Day. Any 'trends' using data from much more than a week prior to that are just nonsense. Look at the CA Gov race. For months, they said it was tight, Meg ahead, she's got tons of cash, Jerry is not even campaigning. Then Labor Day, and it has been Brown up, up and up. That is the trend. Prior to that was just noise. Meaningless responses. That race also shows how many things the 'stats' simply can not predict. Housekeepergate, Meg's bad commercials, Jerry's brilliant ones.
But they said there was a trend for Meg. They did. Said it was a toss up, too close for words, Meg gaining and gaining. None of that was true for a day even.
I repeat my analogy. Asking midterm voters what they will do in November during July and August is like asking an 8 year old what they want for their 10th Birthday. You might get an answer, but chances are they are going to change their minds before the day arrives.
So trends? Are they really? I'm not so sure at all about that.

[SoCalDem]

5. Nahh.. The "polls" have done exactly what they were intended to do.

The media laps us the "data" like thirsty kitten at a saucer of milk. The goal of the polls is to gin up support for the anti-dem candidates because the media-moguls fear regulation.

The phony "exuberance" about the tea party miscreants is a clever device to demoralize casual voters.

and of course with the vapor-voting machines, "anything" is possible..
1) dems lose big.....we told you so
2) republicans win big....we told you so
3) dems squeak by and win ....
.......a. dems cheated
.......b. voter fraud
.......c. see a & b
4) dems win big......ACORRRRRRRRRN........PELOSSSSSSSSI.....REIDDDDDDDD.

[baldguy]

7. And a broken clock is right twice a day.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

8. Actually, a "STOPPED" clock is. A broken one can be

wrong forever, always speeding up, slowing down, and never hitting the right time.

[Wednesdays]

17. A broken digital clock is wrong forever, too

It always reads, "88:88" :+

[ChairmanAgnostic]

22. my VCR always blinked 12:00 for me.

I was proud that it was so consistent.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

23. my VCR always blinked 12:00 for me.

I was proud that it was so consistent.

[ClassWarrior]

26. Oh cripes, analogy breakdown! Time for a CNN Special Report!!

:rofl:

NGU.

[FSogol]

9. Chuck Todd, "I'm scared because everyone will realize that I don't know what I am talking about."

:scared:

[City Lights]

10. Yes, Chuckles, polling is broken. Ditto for the corporate media. nt

[_ed_]

11. Way to go, Chuck

This has only been the case for about 5-6 years now. Chuck Todd is such an idiot. Possibly the stupidest commenter on MSNBC, which is saying something.

Tomorrow, Chuck is expected to conclude that the sky is blue and the sun is yellow. More at 11.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

16. How can we have a blue moon if the sun is yellow?

Even once?

Besides, I swear I saw a red sun.

[Wednesdays]

18. The moon is blue when it forgets to take its Prozac?

:shrug:

[ChairmanAgnostic]

20. Braking News: ADHD Strikes Luna!

I just have to get a little silly. Listening to das radio this mourning, the nonstop, silly, ineffective, and really nasty ads made me change the station three times. And just as I did, another really nasty ad came on. Luckily, I voted already, otherwise, I might have said, fuck it.

[n2doc]

12. I also wonder about people with unlisted numbers

We have had an unlisted, or a the very least unlisted in the phone book (there are 2 different levels) and have never once been called by a poll of any kind in over 25 years of voting. Lots of people I know have inlisted numbers to keep the telemarketers at bay.

[Wednesdays]

19. I've had my cell phone for 5 years now

Except for the rare wrong-number call, I have never gotten an unsolicited call. Calls come only from friends/family, or businesses with whom I deal directly, and never anyone else. Since I don't have a land-line, I'm completely invisible outside this sphere.

I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of people under 25 have a similar arrangement, and that alone would skew polls substantially.

[TheKentuckian]

13. I think older white folks are oversampled and that enthusiasm in that group is overweighted

to drive a narrative.

I also think our ground game is being ignored. I've had a chance to listen to the phone banking and it seemed pretty positive and that's folks with landlines. Might just be my district but seems solid, if not exactly fired up.

I'm not happy but I sure as shooting will be at the polls. Others feel the same way.

[spanone]

14. yet chuck repeats the polling bullshit day in and day out

[ChairmanAgnostic]

21. If he didn't, he'd have to engage his brain

and who knows what that would lead to. Melt down? Permanent mental spasms? Televised Catatonic Syndrome?

[Codeine]

24. I have a landline, but there hasn't been a phone plugged into it

for years. Just there because it's part of my ATT media bundle. The caller ID on the tv pops up the occasional call, but I can't imagine using the darned thing.

[Hosnon]

25. No shit. I don't know anyone under 35 who still has a landline. nt.