Are the Democrats Facing a Locked Convention in '08? Could That Favor Al Gore?

[David Zephyr]

Hard Fact: The rules still apply and it still will take take 50% of the delegates in Denver to clinch the Democratic Party's nomination in 2008.

The Status Quo: The way things are playing out in poll after poll, none of our top tiered candidates -- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards--- can seem wiggle their way out of their 20% to 30% range in support. They all seem to have their "ceilings" of support thus far.

The Al Gore Factor: The man whose photo graces the cover of Time Magazine (again) this week, who is the first choice former President Jimmy Carter, the choice of of Silicon Valley executives, environmentalists, many studio heads in Hollywood and still a great percentage of voters, has still not given a nod or the shake of his head on another run at the White House. Like it or not, there are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines in hopes that Al and Tipper will go for it.

Other Factors: The seasoned and very sharp Governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, will outperform all expectations in both the early and heavily Latino populated Nevada and California contests and will arrive at the DNC in Denver with his own core of delegates pledged to him.

Survey Says! For the first time in political eons, there is a growing possibility that -- after the first and second roll calls of delegates in Denver are made -- that we may not have a nominee for the November general election for President. Should Hillary be locked at 30%, Barack locked at 30%, Edwards locked at 30% and Richardson locked at 10%, what is a national convention of fired up delegates in the Mile-High City to do? Who would be the consensus candidate?

Why, I think it's quite obvious, don't you?

Having been a delegate from California to two of our party's national conventions, I can tell you that candidate loyalty will run true only for so many roll calls before the dynamic changes. Delegates are, for the most part, activists in their on right within the party. A Gore draft at the convention, even if he stays out of the slug-festing primaries, is a real possibility with the way the current crop of candidates are polling.

Don't discount this possibility. I imagine that none other than Bill Clinton himself considers it a lot. It's just math and emotion that makes it happen.

The upside for Al would be that the Republicans would have a truly shortened hunting season to attack him, wouldn't they?

In any event, I am beginning to believe that this may indeed be how it all plays out. Mark my word.

[ComerPerro]

1. you realize its still 2007, right?

[BlooInBloo]

5. Nothing could *possibly* change in the next 1.5 years!

[derby378]

2. Mike Gravel?

Sorry, I couldn't resist...

[firefox_fan]

3. I'd be shocked if that really happened!

But the media might like a locked Convention, the suspense. They might push for it. People are sick of the past BS coronations.

[David Zephyr]

22. You make many good observations, firefox_fan

1.) The media loves a horse race and the high drama of a locked convention, and

2.) People are "sick of the past BS coronations".

[chimpymustgo]

4. Could certainly happen. With the primary schedule being so wacky, ANYTHING

could happen, and 3 very strong candidates (and a 4th coming on strong). Your scenario is as LIKELY as any.

[kimmerspixelated]

6. Agreed,

and BTW, who is your avatar?

[hippiechick]

8. Thurgood Marshall - Supreme Ct Justice .

Brown v. Board and other groundbreaking decisions.


:hi:

[elocs]

7. Not going to happen. Locked conventions have been talked about for decades.

This kind of speculation ranks right along with could God make a rock so heavy that even He could not lift it?

[roamer65]

9. It has the smell of a brokered convention.

I believe the last brokered convention was 1960 and we got one of our greatest presidents from it...John Fitzgerald Kennedy.

[BigRed1975]

10. If I've said it once I've said it 100 times...Al Gore is not Running!

He is scared of the Clintons!

Big Red

[helderheid]

11. Afraid of the Clintons??

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[BigRed1975]

15. Yep...

afraid as in shaking in his boots. Gore is a bright man, but a master politician with the juice of Big Dog, nah..not even with Academy awards and Nobel prizes.


Big Red

[stubtoe]

12. Are you scared of Al Gore?

*wink*

[BigRed1975]

14. Why should I be afraid of Al Gore?

It isn't exactly a secret that Al and Bill aren't exactly on the best of terms these days. A lot of the books that are coming out now are revealing a lot about Gore/Clinton tensions. It has to obvious that Clinton's lack of support for Dem Candidates had a lot to do with Hillary's ambitions. Had Gore or Kerry been successful it would have killed any chance Hillary would have to run. I do understand Gore's decision to try to distance himself from Clinton due to the scandals, but when all is said and done, Bill has to blame himself for making his support radioactive.

I personally don't think that Al Gore is any more of a shoe in than Hillary. My concern with Hillary lies in the politics that she will return to the White House. She's quite capable. Gore didn't win in 2000, no reason to believe he'll do any better now..if anything he is perceived as even more liberal now, clearly the reason he didn't carry any southern states last time. All he had to do was carry Tennessee and it would have been President Gore.

If you think the press is anxious to hype the Clinton/Obama drama, a Clinton/Gore Drama has to be a wet dream. How do you think Al will handle Kyoto versus the punking he got for his signature issue under Clinton?


Big Red

[KamaAina]

16. "All he had to do was carry Tennessee and it would have been President Gore."

for that matter, all he had to do was carry Florida and it would have been President Gore.

Oh, wait a minute... :eyes:

[BigRed1975]

18. My reference was to Tennessee as his home state...

If he can't win there, given he was an elected senator from that state, there's a real problem.

The 2000 election had no business being close enough to steal.

Big Red

[Uncle Joe]

20. Al Gore

lost Tennessee in large part because he empowered you and everyone else when he championed the internet. The Mass Corporate Media hated him for it, because the internet threatens their monopoly on information.

The payback from the Mass Corporate Media for his vision and dedication to the people, was a relentless slander campaign against his integrity for the better part of two years prior to the coup of 2000 beginning in March of 99.

This coupled with the Lewinsky Scandal set the stage for Bush to run on the premise of restoring honor and integrity to the White House, a major consideration in moderate to conservative states such as Tennessee. The Mass Corporate Media were more than happy to carry Bush's talking points for him and camouflage Bush's own shortcomings. They trashed and slandered Al Gore even turning a 180 overnight and overruling their own focus groups and them selves as to who won the debates. One small example, if you ever for one moment actually believed Al Gore claimed to have invented the internet, you were brainwashed regarding his integrity as were too many good people in Tennessee among other moderate to conservative states still depending on the Mass Corporate Media to the get their information.

The upshot; Al Gore is not in the White House despite winning the popular and electoral vote taking in to consideration Florida's electoral corruption, precisely because he empowered the people when he championed the internet. I call it the Prometheus Effect.

[David Zephyr]

13. My OP assumes he isn't "running". He would accept a convention draft.

I also don't think he's "running", but my OP is not about that. Al would accept his party's nomination. Don't discount it.

[BigRed1975]

17. Ok...that's at least a possibility...

It will be a tight competitive race, one that could see several candidates take a significant number of delegates to the convention with no declared winner. This is the only way I see Obama as accepting a VP position...run on the ticket with a drafted Gore.

I just don't see Gore declaring to run against Hillary.


Big Red

[Initech]

19. I think the reason for a locked convention is actually just this time around:

It's getting to the point where people don't know who to trust anymore. The republicans don't give a shit and the democrats are full of shit. The Dems haven't been holding up their end of the bargain by ending this bullshit war, and the republicans are doing everything they can to keep it going to line their pocketbooks. So in this situation, who do you go for? Do you go for the guy who literally IS a Washington outsider, or do you go for one of the rich white men of the GOP? Tough question. I know who I would pick.

[David Zephyr]

21. I think that you just put the entire '08 election into clarity: who will people really trust?

EOO, after Bush's horrible eight years, after a terrorist attack on our soil, after Katrina, after all the corruption and cronyism, Americans (not just Democrats) are going to really want to vote for someone that they know they can trust, that won't let them down. The single individual who they have known for decades and still has that trust? Al Gore.

[Initech]

23. Ding ding ding!!!!