so I KNOW how they're voting. The only thing I can base any kind of unbiased projection on is comments at the Anchorage Daily News. There is a ton of infighting between the Miller and Murkowski supporters. Very little negative has been said about Scott, other than that he's fat (I prefer to think of him as the name a Tlingit clan gave him when they adopted him into their family -- Keét Yiyaágu, which means "Boat Size Killer Whale"), he lacks experience and he'll vote with Obama. Ooo, scary.
Everyone agrees (including Joe Miller) that Scott is personable and a most likeable guy.
I'm just not sure how the Republican votes are going to go. Miller has been disgraced, but his people are FURIOUS about the Supreme Court ruling. Lisa's people keep saying that a vote for Scott is a vote for Joe Miller, and we keep saying there's really no difference (other than sanity) between Lisa and Joe because they're going to vote the same way, regardless.
I do think Scott has a chance. I've seen comments even from Miller supporters who have said that even though they don't agree with his politics, they're going to vote for Scott because he's honest, ethical and above the fray.
Really, I think this election is anybody's guess. McAdams has run by far the best campaign, and everybody knows it.
Please read this Mudflats post from Linda Kellen-Biegel about Scott's new ad, which addresses the "size" issue -- as if that should really be an issue at all.
http://www.themudflats.net/2010/10/30/mcadams-full-page-ad-im-twice-the-man-joe-miller-is/