Heads up Florida.. soon to be Hurricane Tomas

[pgodbold]

Subject: Tropical Storm Tomas 10/30/2010 8:00am


Colleagues,

FORECAST: Tropical Storm TOMAS has formed just east of the Leeward
Islands. Maximum Sustained Winds (msw) are 70 mph
and TOMAS will become HURRICANE TOMAS over night. Movement is WNW and
it is basically headed for now toward Jamaica.
Over the next next week, expect steady strengthening of the Hurricane.
TOMAS will pass south of Puerto Rico and just south of
Hispaniola. There is no way for Haiti to be spared at least rain and
strong winds. This will be mid to latter part of next week. At
that point their will be a movement to the north ... or not.

DISCUSSION: This hurricane has the potential to make landfall in the
USA early next week. The movement and intensity (strengthening)
through most of this upcoming week are clear. A trough will be
leaving the scene, and a ridge will be building in it's place,
creating generally
WNW movement, and strengthening. However, a new trough will be
entering the scene mid to late next week and control of the steering
flow
will ensue. At this point, it could turn north around eastern Haiti,
or continue WNW toward Jamaica, or veer to the south toward the
Yucatan Channel.
The better models have not given much credit to the encroaching
trough. Not sure why and will be looking more closely at that over the
weekend.
At this point, there is the possibility that this storm could get
into the Gulf, but it is too early with this uncertainty (at this
point) of what will happen
in 5 days from now. At this juncture, I see it moving westward a few
days longer into next weekend, and then turning north, but that is
based on some
speculation on data that is not yet available.

Elsewhere in the US, weather is seasonal, with no weather threats.
Colder weather is invading the southeast with temperatures now in the
low 40s
(morning temperature) but getting up to a beautiful lower 70s today.
High 70s today in north Florida to low 80s in the south today.
Beautiful day.
No rain in Florida or the Southeast.

NEXT FORECAST: Sunday morning

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any
FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased
my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been
touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have
received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the
Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the
citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set
up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of
these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I
acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort
and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for
the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states
at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website
you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

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[lumberingbear]

1. Long Range Model

Long Range Model

[TheCowsCameHome]

3. Not to make light of this weather situation,

but that map looks like a playbook for the current Teabagger candidates.

[malaise]

2. It's been a hurricane since morning

and it's just moving away from St Vincent and the Grenadines and St Lucia after causing serious roof and tree damage in Barbados. Looks like Jamaica will be lucky and he will turn NW somewhere near Western Haiti, Eastern Cuba and NE Jamaica and then head in the direction of the Bahamas and Florida.

Will be a Cat 3 by Tuesday. With so much time and given the fact that Tomas is now moving at 9mph no one is sure where he's going between now and Wednesday/Thursday. Hope he misses all of us.