House Polling Dump: 10/30/10 - Limping Towards the Finish

[Yeggo]

I can visualize the comments already (troll! cherry-picker!, etc.), but it's another bad polling day on the House side, it just is. If we're looking at the bright side, I'm fairly certain we're going to keep the Senate, and if pollsters were ever going to get duped by a national storyline and mis-adjust some voter screens, it would be this year. But still, it wasn't a good day. We have some serious work to do over the next 72 hours. If I'm proven wrong, I'll write the mother of all apologies, and I'll do it smiling.

http://conversation101.squarespace.com/generic-ballot/2010/10/30/house-polling-dump-103010.html

[BlueDemKev]

1. Focus on the Senate

Yes, unfortunately it appears that the Democrats will lose the House this year. However, I am confident that we will regain it in 2-4 years as the voters in the "swing" districts get a real taste of the tea-baggers.

We need to focus on energy on the Senate right now, to restrain what the tea-baggers in the House will try to do. The races we MUST win are West Virginia, Washington, and California (that will get us to 51). We still have a chance (albeit smaller) in Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Colorado.

Forget Kentucky. That state is full of backwood hillbillies who've been brainwashed into believing that Democrats are going to come take their Bibles, their guns, and all their smokes. :eyes:

[Yeggo]

3. Actually...

Washington, West Virginia and California will get the Dems to 52. And you have a good point about the districts swinging back (possibly) in two years. It's just going to depend on the economy. If low tide is a relatively small (by historical standards) GOP edge in the House, then we have nowhere to go but back up.

[BlueDemKev]

7. 52?

How are you getting 52 with only CA, WA, and WV? We have 46 "safe" seats, 2 "likely" seats (CT & DE), which put us at 48. So CA, WA, and WV will put us at 51.

If we can also win PA, IL, CO, and WI, that would put us up to 55.

[Yeggo]

10. You're right.

I didn't make a change when I moved Nevada back to Republican.

40 Democrats not up for reelection

Hawaii, Maryland, Schumer in NY, Oregon, Vermont are safe - 45.

Connecticut, Delaware, Gillibrand in NY are likely - 48.

California, West Virginia, Washington - 51.

This election's officially melting my brain.

[BlueDemKev]

2. Deleted (Duplicated In Error)

[DarthDem]

4. More Doomsaying

Your bad vibes are based on five polls, only one of which is significant - - that involving Dina Titus. And it's already been dubunked thoroughly elsewhere. I appreciate the analysis, but there isn't much to see today.

[Yeggo]

5. Debunked?

The M-D poll is the only one released on the Titus race in over a month. If you have info on another, I'm all ears.

[Yeggo]

6. Debunked?

The M-D poll is the only one released on the Titus race in over a month. If you have info on another, I'm all ears.

[jaysunb]

8. What about possible "take away" seats for Dems ?

I don't hear too much about that side of the coin. :shrug:

[Yeggo]

11. It's a NET 51 projection

I think Dems will flip Louisiana 2 , Illinois-10 and Delaware at large. Republicans flip 54.

[BzaDem]

13. The Oberstar poll is pretty bad. n/t

[pintobean]

9. Hi Yeggo. Maybe you can answer this.

RCP moved my district (MO3) from likely Dem to leans Dem. They did this yesterday, but there's been no polling since mid August. Any ideas as to why?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/mo/missouri_3rd_district_martin_vs_carnahan-1377.html

[Yeggo]

12. Have no idea

Only two polls, both from August, both had Carnahan up pretty big once the RINO's factored in. It sounds like from the write-up they're counting on national trends to make it closer than the polling indicates.