Public Policy Polling for KY Senate election: Paul 55%, Conway 40%

[The Northerner]

Paul headed for easy victory

Rand Paul has expanded his lead in the Kentucky Senate race even further over the last week and is headed for a blowout win. His margin over Jack Conway is 55-40.

Kentucky is obviously a conservative state. Conway's ability to win was always going to depend on getting a lot of folks who supported John McCain in 2008 to vote Democratic for the Senate this time around. The most amazing finding on this final poll is that Rand Paul is actually picking up more Obama voters (15%) than Conway is McCain voters (9%). That's the formula for a landslide.

Over the last month of the campaign this went from being a relatively competitive race to a not so competitive one. That didn't have a ton to do with Rand Paul- his favorability in early September was 45/40 and now it's 48/43, basically unchanged. The shift is more a reflection of Jack Conway's image with Kentucky voters being shattered in the closing days. Seven weeks ago his favorability split evenly with 36% of voters rating him positively and negatively alike. Now he's very unpopular with only 34% of voters saying they like him and 52% expressing unfavorable opinions toward him.

In the end Rand Paul did not have any trouble reunifying his party after the Republican primary- GOP voters are going for him by an 88-8 margin. Conway meanwhile is bleeding Democratic support. He's getting only 61% of the vote from his own party while a full 34% say they plan to vote for Paul. Paul also has a 48-40 advantage with independents.

Barack Obama's approval rating in Kentucky is 31% with 62% of voters disapproving of him. This race may have been a stretch for Dems even with a perfect campaign and candidate. And in the end they had neither.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_10311025.pdf


Is anyone else thinking that PPP has now become more right-leaning?

The above numbers make no sense whatsoever and I doubt that they will even resemble the results on November 2.

Something has to be wrong with the polling...

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rucky]

3. It wouldn't surprise me one bit

if he got a KY boost because of the stomping of a MoveOn activist.

[JerseygirlCT]

10. I was thinking the Kentucky Dems ought to

appeal to chivalry.

The sight of a big old man stomping on that woman ought to disgust anyone, regardless of political party.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Imajika]

14. After the stomping..

This poll is from Oct 28-30.

This is Kentucky in a Republican leaning year. Conway never really had a chance.

The stomping thing was never going to make much difference.

[katsy]

2. I feel as though I'm falling down the rabbit hole.

How can this happen?

[Ruby the Liberal]

4. Seriously? Thats insane!

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[bbinacan]

5. Wow. n/t

[Pirate Smile]

6. PPP isn't RW. The numbers are the numbers. It isn't surprising that Kentucky might

revert to type. They did elect Bunning & McConnell.

It is too bad though. I really like Conway.

Demint is going to act like a King in the next Senate. It's going to be crazy even though we will keep control. "Unanimous Consent" is the next thing Republicans will distort and abuse as bad they have the filibuster.

[Hawkeye-X]

9. Reid is going to make some filibuster changes

for next session, and McConnell will eat it and take it up in the ass once he still doesn't have control, and will lose seats for 2012, guaranteed.

[aquart]

7. I feel ill.

[kentuck]

8. I hate to say it...

But Kentucky has a lot of racists. They hate Obama's guts. Jack Conway is a great candidate and they are going to throw away their vote on a libertarian nut like Rand Paul. It's very disappointing but they are what they are.

[Dawson Leery]

15. Kentucky has alot of racists? No kidding.

In this case, no Democrat could win with Obama in the Whitehouse.:-(