Early voting numbers show bad news for Democrats :-(

[BolivarianHero]

I logged onto the site today after work to find people celebrating the fact that registered Democrats were up 10 points against reigstered Republicans among early voters in North Carolina. I'll spare those of you who may not know the historical details, but for many reasons dating back to the Civil War, there remains a substantial number of registered Democrats in Dixie who are de facto Republicans, especially with respect to Federal politics, making any such analysis useless without comparative data from previous elections:

So for anyone who gives a damn, here are the early turnout numbers for 2008 and 2010.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2010.html

NC and a few other states provide early turnout data broken down by party registration, and every one of those states shows a swing away from the Democratic Party. Those are the numbers we must concern ourselves, especially when gauging what will happen in the South.

[BzaDem]

1. Comparing to 2008 though will always look bad, since 2008 was a Presidential year w/60% turnout.

2006 is the relevant point of comparison, since that was the last midterm. And we are doing pretty decent compared to 2006 from what I've read. In Nevada, where they track it by party, we are roughly on par with 2006 turnout. I have seen similar numbers in other states.

[blogslut]

2. What you said

doubled

[Danger Mouse]

3. ...but 2008 was a presidential election year. it doesn't compare.

[glowing]

4. And its a state's who's demographics are changing with a lot of infusion

from Northern people retiring, moving, re-locating... Less taxes, warmer climate, cheaper homes, growing cities like Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham area. There are actual Democrat/ Democrats in the state. And there is an ever growing population of Latino voters along with already larger #'s of African American voters (who are normally D).

However, there are still a few military areas.. and they are extremely biased with the Don't Ask Don't Tell shit... My sister n law acts like her husband is going to be attacked in the showers or in his bed.. Its nutty. She said he was going to leave the army if it became real; Good luck with that one, he just re-enlisted. He's a G.I. (government issue).. he follows the rules and serves or he's imprisoned within. He's already serving with gay people.. he just doesn't know which one's most of the time.. I'm pretty sure that most gay/ lesbian people in the armed services aren't going to put on a pin that says "I'm gay" even when they throw the unconstitutional DADT out for good. They just won't have to lie or worry about someone ruining their lives and careers in service because someone is a jackass.

[Atman]

5. I've seen the actual early vote totals.

Your fears are unfounded, at least nationally.

[CJCRANE]

6. Looks like it isn't so bad after all :-)

[bigdarryl]

7. Where did those PA numbers come from I though they didn't have early voting

[BzaDem]

9. They have absentee voting, and that's included. n/t

[Cosmocat]

10. It doesn't ...

have early voting per se, but very open absentee ballots ...

[Bluenorthwest]

8. I don't have by Party info, but Oregon is predicting 72% turnout

We vote by mail, so the estimate is probably good, made by an excellent Democratic Sec of State. This would make it the highest turnout for a non Presidential election in Oregon since 1990. That is more interesting than comparing to 08 Presidential if you ask me.

[Stinky The Clown]

11. Comparing apples and bowling shirts.

Prez year <----> Not.

[oswaldactedalone]

12. Thank you for noticing us Caucasian Democrats in NC

There are blue areas in Greensboro and the Northeastern NC area in addition to the Research Triangle(Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill) and Charlotte. While NC might rank 48th in secondary education, we have the 6th ranked State University system in the country. Some of us are products of that system and we actually learned that ignorance and willful stupidity adds nothing to the debate. So, we vote Democrat. It's a struggle in many ways, but we're mostly void of the true radicals who take to the streets and the tea party rallies.

KKK activity has dropped dramatically and there's been no skinhead activity in at least 15 years here.