What do you think would happen in the Iraq

[MissHoneychurch]

if the military would withdraw?

Please don't misunderstand me, I want this war to end as well and the military to get out of there rather sooner than later. Still, what would happen if this country suddenly had to take care of the terrorists itself. I doubt that the terrorists would leave the Iraq if the US and UK are leaving. The murdering of the civilians would continue and martial law would be announced.

[KharmaTrain]

1. Yugoslavia Would Be A Model

It appears that Al Sadr is already making the deals with the Sunnis that could direct both groups at fighting to get rid of what they consider the "foreign occupiers"...not just the U.S., but "Al Queda" as well.

I see a Saigon, April '75 scenario up ahead as the drain of this occupation on our forces and the growing organization and resolve of the Iraqis will continue to bleed the life and morale out of our forces. Then what? Several sceanrios...it all depends on how we leave and what's left behind.

Each group will carve out its own turf...a state within a state with the Iranians proping up the Shiites and the Saudis bankrolling the Sunnis...with the Kurds left to their own devices. Unfortunately, too much blood has already been shed...not just in the past 4 years, but going back to the Gulf Oil War I, the Iran-Iraq war and so on that I suspect we'll see a segregating of the country (that's going on already) into armed camps/mini states similar to what we saw happen in the Balkans and Lebanon.

No matter what happens, blood is on our hands and it will be a generation or longer before we will come to grips with what's happened here...just as we're just starting to really understand what happened with Vietnam.

Unfortunately, the situation isn't as simple as "terrirists". If such a threat to America exists, it's totally masked right now by the morass in Iraq. Until we clear our eyes there and focus on what caused us to be the target of their hate and scorn in the first place, the seeds for further attacks will remain.

[salin]

3. what KT said

on all parts.

[frogcycle]

4. that seems inevitable

it will happen; we are just prolonging the agony. The faster we get out of the way, the faster they duke it out, carve out territory, and reach some sort of stability.

Picture a tank of tropical fish, where various territorial species have staked out nooks and crannies, bicker occasionally when one ventures across some imaginary line.

Now slap the shit out of the side of the tank (that's us).

Keep slapping it. Dump in a few more fish, aggressive ones that will want their own rocks to own. Keep slapping it.

Now step back and wait.

You may end up with some dead fish as the fights over territory ensue, but it WILL stabilize eventually. Maybe all one species, maybe not.

ol' georgy got tired of blowing up frogs; now he is slapping the shit out of that tank. I bet he giggles when a really big day like yesterday occurs.

[Possumpoint]

2. My Personal Uneducated Opinion Is

that Iraq would erupt into civil war. That would result in a self imposed three way partition. With the strongest getting as much territory and oil resources as possible. The southern half or so, being mostly Shia would align itself with Iran. The Kurds would try to develop their area but could suffer attacks from Turkey who doesn't want a autonomous Kurdish area. Another potential problem is the Shia/Sunni strife would spread throughout the whole Middle East. Energy price's would spike to prohibitive levels.

My greatest concern is Iran's increasing sphere of influence. However, I see little that we can do about it without further military action. The CIA's efforts to destabilize Iran's economy may/may not show any results. Further military action would result in a complete meltdown of the Middle East. Energy prices would spike to prohibitive levels.

All of the above shows the stupidity demonstrated by the Bush's administration decision to do a pre emptive invasion of Iraq without world support. I hope history gives him the black mark he so richly deserves. Beware however, I see continuing efforts by the Republican's to rewrite history after his administration is over. They will go to their graves trying to justify what they have done in Iraq.

[Beer Snob-50]

6. regarding irans sphere of influence

do you think a "smart president" would go to iran and offer to help them with their current infrastructure problems in exchange for iran helping to stabalize the region.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

5. thats whats happening in iraq right now: murdering of civilians and martial law

when there are armies on civilian streets, its martial law.

[guitar man]

7. more or less

the same thing that is happening now. They seem determined to carry on their civil and sectarian conflicts in spite of the fact we are there. The only difference might be a shorter conflict if we left now. :shrug:

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

8. Our presence there is, at best, irrelevant.

The disputes will be settled by the participants and the neighboring countries. The only thing that the U.S. military presence is accomplishing is providing a common target and focus for the various factions. The troops may be trying to stem the violence but, in doing so, they inevitably have to take side with one faction or the other or appear to do so.

In ways it's like trying to break up a family dispute as an outsider who ends up being the common enemy.