There's a lot of prognosticating that happens on DU

[HughMoran]

How accurate are people's predictions here on average?

[Ozymanithrax]

1. I predicted they would take the house and not the Senate...

I based my prediction on the polls and on the economic angst.

I was right.

[onehandle]

2. I had the same prediction. I based my prediction on...

...the many, many polls that predicted this. If the polls had been divided, then maybe I wouldn't have made a prediction.

DUers and Freeps alike have this fantasy that pollsters are wrong when they are on the wrong side of what they want.

It's called wishful thinking.

[Ozymanithrax]

3. Republicans went through the same thing in 2006 and 2008...

Seems both sides can live in denial.

[HughMoran]

4. I just picked Dems would have 51 in the Senate and lose 56 seats in the House

I was pretty damned close considering I wasn't paying any attention to the number crunchers - just pulled it out of my ass.

Oh, but this thread has almost nothing to do with factual based prognostications for the most part, it's when people "guess" what will happen in 2012 or beyond and seem exceedingly confident in themselves. I picked the lowest number close to "0" as I've never seen so many bad predictions in one place ever.

[Ozymanithrax]

5. It is called a state of denial...

But it wasn't just the guesses.

The notion that cell phone users weren't covered in the polls meant that all the polls were drastically wrong.

And there was an enthusiasm gap that did lead to a difference in voting patterns.

[HughMoran]

6. You get my point

:thumbsup:

[HughMoran]

7. Interesting spread of opinions thusfar