http://www.greatenergychallengeblog.com/2010/12/will-the-us-go-rogue-if-cancun%E2%80%99s-climate-talks-fail/One thing’s certain about
the international climate negotiations happening right now in Cancun: no one’s expecting big things. After last year’s failure in Copenhagen to broker a legally-binding, international agreement to reduce carbon emissions, the media, negotiators pundits and activists pretty much all agree that if anything comes of Cancun it will be unambitious. Even the former UN Climate Chief, Yvo de Boer, says negotiations should focus on “small steps” toward slowing climate change, adding, “no one will take us seriously anymore” if talks were to fail again.
We talked to Kate Sheppard of Mother Jones to see what she sees in the Cancun’s crystal ball. She reiterated de Boer’s warning:
“There’s a possibility that if nothing happens in Cancun people will turn away from the UN process.” The US and China could go rogue on the UN conventions and figure out an emissions bargain on their own.But, as Sheppard points out, “The developing countries are going to push back because they don’t have a voice in those other agreements in the same way they have a voice here. That leaves the conversation to folks like the US and China and leaves out a lot of the voices that are most affected by the issue.”
The U.S. position—and the prospects for any progress—is only complicated by the recent electoral upheaval in the U.S.
Obama and the Democrats are on the defensive, weakened politically and facing deeply climate-skeptical incoming Republicans. The public is focused on jobs and the economy. The deficit commission says there’s no money to throw around.
Politics will be the tail that wags the American dog in the climate debate for the foreseeable future. “Everyone here knows that the obama administration is not nearly as powerful as they were last year.”
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