Obama 'core' coalition hardly 'shattered'

[BzaDem]

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/12/06/5596757-obama-core-coalition-hardly-shattered

--snip--

"While some think President Obama's "core" coalition "has been shattered," here are some numbers from our latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll that looks at Obama's approval among some of those "core" groups:

- Blacks: 90% approve/6% disapprove
- Democrats: 82/12
- Liberals: 79/16
- Latinos: 56/33
- Post grads: 56/41
- Women: 52/43
- 18-34: 49/43

Obama’s overall approval in this poll was 47/47 and was conducted from Nov. 11-15, after the Nov. 2nd midterms that saw Democrats lose 63 seats in the House -- a post-WWII record -- and six seats in the Senate.

As Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducts the NBC/WSJ poll with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, said after the poll, “It’s a reminder again … for a guy who took a shellacking, he’s got a pretty strong core pulse.” He cited Obama’s strong support among a core constituency of younger women, blacks, Latinos, young voters, voters in the West, and under-30 urban moderates. “This is a president that retains political standing,” he added.

Where Obama has serious deficits is not with his "core" groups, but with swing voters, Republicans, and whites. He is upside-down with independents, who moved his way in 2008, and has become much more polarizing in two years with the GOP.

And that could make for an election that looks more similar to 2004 -- decided by a state or two -- rather than the '08 landslide."

[VMI Dem]

1. A noble effort in trying to convince yourself.

:toast:

[BzaDem]

2. Why would I need to convince myself? The data is entirely clear. The only people who say otherwise

have the same aversion to facts and data as Republicans do about global warming.

[VMI Dem]

4. Or, as Republicans do about gay marriage.

:hi:

[BzaDem]

5. So the people who think Obama has a problem with his base have the same aversion to facts as

Republicans do with gay marriage? I would completely agree with that. That is a spot on observation on your part. I wasn't aware that you agreed though. Thanks for clearing that up.

:hi:

[VMI Dem]

7. I am glad we can both acknowledge the absolute idiocy of anyone that opposes gay marraige.

Whatever else we agree or disagree on.

[MineralMan]

3. Not an unexpected result.

DU is not representative of the overall electorate, despite what some think. However, the disgruntled have enough to keep voters away from the polls in large enough numbers to alter the election. As some say, they influenced the election enough for President Obama to win in 2008, so they might be able to cause him to lose in 2012, if that's the case. If that's true, then they do have some control over the outcome.

Of course, if it's not true, they have no control over it at all. I'm not sure which it is.

[Winterblues]

9. All I have control over is my one and only vote

I gave it to Obama..Not sure I will do so again.

[MineralMan]

11. Yes, well...that's your choice, isn't it?

I didn't say it wasn't. Vote however you wish.

[griffi94]

6. what % of repubs and all the groups that make up the gop

still favor bush.

in a highly partisan environment like we now enjoy i fully expect a democratic president to
poll well among his party and the groups that make up his party.

that in no way means people think he's making good choices. you seem to like polls.
what % of people polled think we're going in the right direction.

[saracat]

8. Yeah but it was the Indies that got him elected and he has lost those.

Also many "Voting" Dems are now Indie, what is being polled are those who self identify in any way as dems with no clue as the whether they will actually vote. And if it is true that he "retains politcal standing" why does he do nothing but cave? Thst makes his actions even worse!

[BzaDem]

12. Yes, that's true. Considering Indies as a group are much more centrist than Democrats, how is this

an argument that he is losing "core" support?

When centrist Independents leave the Democratic party because it is too far left for them, that is not a signal that he is losing "core" support. His rating among all Liberals (regardless of party) is 79/16, which isn't that much different from when he was inaugurated.

[TBF]

13. Moot point - "core" support does not matter if the general feeling is

that he's not doing enough to help the economy (which is what indies say). That is really what Mr. Obama should be looking at if he cares about re-election (and who knows - maybe he's had enough by now and doesn't care).

[saracat]

16. Well., many of the folks I know that went Indie were for the reverse reasons.

But if what you say is true, nothing Obama does is likely to get them back. He is certainly center and moving right.And if that is what some call "socalisim" ??? All I can say is, I deal with Dems in my state party daily and even the most conservative of them are disappointed. And all of us would tell pollsters we support Obama.What else would we say? That is why polls like this are nonsense.

[gratuitous]

10. Still two years to 2012 on my calendar

And if a credible candidate runs for the Democratic nomination in 2012 who actually pursues some of the jettisoned Obama platform, I see a rough road to re-election as many who "approve" of Obama find themselves a new candidate a little closer to their values. At this point, the ghost of Richard Nixon would qualify.

[williesgirl]

14. Should be interesting to see those numbers tank now that he's caving on the tax cuts for the rich.

I can only attest to one thing - myself. He's lost me. I think it's time to start working on a Progressive Party candidate that won't be ashamed to stand up for his or her principles.

I feel so used by the President and his advisors. They mock me or just ignore lots of "me's". We're his early supporters, folks who donated small amounts frequently that we honestly couldn't afford, folks who worked their asses off knocking on doors, GOTV especially in red areas, etc. We only mattered during the primaries and the election. We haven't had a voice since.

So, again, let's wait for the next set of polling.

[Edweird]

15. I guess we'll see in 2012, won't we?

[Karenina]

17. Americans will begin again to eat the shit they have harvested

with the installation of 112th congress.





I can only wish you all the best.

[leftynyc]

18. Meaningless

in terms of getting re-elected. He's lost he indies and caving on this tax thing aint gonna bring them back.

[ddeclue]

19. Umm.. they didn't vote so your poll numbers don't mean anything.