Tax Cut Deal, State Of Play, Evening Edition - DailyKos

[WillyT]

Tax cut deal state of play, evening edition
by Chris Bowers - DailyKos
Wed Dec 08, 2010 at 04:10:05 PM PST

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On Wednesday evening, the state of play on the tax cut deal remains very similar to where it was all day. A deal is likely to pass, but changes to the deal are also likely.

In the Senate, which will be the first chamber to vote on the tax cut deal, the leadership of both parties has said a vote could take place as early as tomorrow. However, given the crowded Senate schedule and ongoing negotiations, it is more likely that the vote won’t take place for a few more days.

Here are the items on the table during the negotiations:

1. Debt ceiling

It looks unlikely that the debt ceiling will be raised as part of the deal:

Mr. Reid said Senate Democrats had discussed whether to seek to add an increase to the country's borrowing limit to the tax package, but they had been unable to reach a consensus opinion.

He said he would prefer to deal with the debt ceiling issue next year, when he said Republicans—who gain control of the House in January—"will have some buy-in on the debt."

This is a bad, bad move from Reid that is hard to figure out. As I discussed earlier today, if raising the debt ceiling is not part of the deal, then Republicans have another opportunity to take some hostages early next year. This puts any conceivable positive aspects of the deal at risk of being negated--or worse--in just two or three months. Even supporters of the deal, such as Ezra Klein, are sounding the alarm on this one.

2. Estate tax

The House Democratic leadership has come out in opposition to the deal unless there are changes to the provisions on the estate tax. However, as Joan blogged a couple hours ago, Senate Republicans, led by Lindsay Graham, have called the estate tax provisions non-negotiable.

Don’t expect the version of the tax cut deal to pass the Senate with any changes to the estate tax provision. However, expect the House to pass a deal with changes to the estate tax provisions. Then, expect this to be one of the final sticking points in the last negotiations before there is a deal that is signed into law.

In short, this aspect of the negotiations won’t get much play in the next day or two, but expect it to come up again soon.

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More: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/12/8/927173/-Tax-cut-deal-state-of-play,-evening-edition

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