‘Don’t Ask’ Debate Caught in Tax Cut Crossfire (Nate Silver)

[FreeState]

Interesting as always.

First, the tepid reaction among many left-leaning groups to the compromise brokered by President Obama and Mitch McConnell could raise the incentive for Mr. Obama to score a “win” with progressives. The debate in Democratic circles — and there may be some differences of opinion between activist groups and rank-and-file Democrats — essentially amounts to whether the tax cut compromise constitutes a “loss” for liberals or, given the circumstances, a tie. Few Democrats, however, would regard any compromise that extends the current tax rates at the highest income thresholds as an unmitigated good, even if the deal also contains some elements that liberals would ordinarily support.

No, liberals’ policy priorities are not all alike; the same people who are most passionate about ending DADT are not necessarily those who have the gravest conveners about the course for tax policy. Nevertheless, when liberals are scoring Mr. Obama during 2012, his having achieved the goal of repealing DADT would help to reassure liberals that there had indeed been progress made. In some ways, it would represent a nice compliment to health care: one piece of economic reform, one piece of social reform. Both policies, also, proved problematic for Bill Clinton during the first two years of his term, and so achieving them would perhaps provide liberals with some sense of closure.

On the other hand, if Mr. Obama is not able to secure a repeal of DADT during the balance of Congress’s lame-duck session, it is hard to see what other liberal priorities he might achieve after Jan. 3, when Congress it will have re-convened with substantially fewer Democrats. Ending DADT is extremely popular: although the results differ slightly depending on question wording, most polls show about twice as many Americans in favor of ending the policy — and allowing gays to serve openly — as continuing it. If, despite that, Mr. Obama cannot persude a sufficient number of Republicans to allow the repeal to proceed, what chance does he have of securing a victory for progressives in more complicated areas like climate policy or immigration reform, where public opinion is more evenly split?

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So far, President Obama has been quiet on the subject — he didn’t take any questions on DADT during his press conference yesterday — although there are some reports that he is lobbying members of Congress behind the scenes. It is a little surprising that he hasn’t been more vocal about it; perhaps he does not want to raise expectations when victory is far from assured, perhaps he doesn’t think he could do much good, or perhaps he simply has his hands full. But whether or not he might actually have any influence by using the bully pulpit at a time when his approval ratings remain mired in the 40s, a lot of liberals believe Mr. Obama has been too reticent to speak out on their behalf, and by doing so he might regain some of their confidence.