Anyone watching CSPAN?

[1corona4u]

There was a guy on there, who wrote a book about the caucuses, and he made a comment that the 2nd tier candidates were penalized? by 7.5% right off the top/at the start?

What is he talking about?? He said Dodd, Biden, and Richardson would be disproportionately penalized this year??

I'm not sure what the show was, they were discussing the caucuses...

Found a link;

Watch this. The comment comes at the end;

Click on the Christopher Hull link;
16.59 minutes into it. Just slide the bar...


http://www.c-span.org/

[livvy]

1. It said they were penalized if they went into the caucus under 15%.

Based on what? How do they get the %? Is it from the initial vote? I don't get it, either.

[1corona4u]

3. I don't get it....

Hopefully, Belltor, or someone will comment on it...Joe can't afford to lose ANY % points.

[1corona4u]

2. He said;

"A candidate that goes into caucus night, with under 15% support of Iowa Democrats, in the Iowa poll, ends up losing 7.5 percentage points, relative to what we would otherwise expect them to get. So it's a devastating blow to these lower tier candidates. In some years it's really not an issue, in 2004 the lower tier candidates really weren't that competitive in Iowa, they really weren't trying particularly hard to contest the state, they really weren't a factor in the national election.

This year you have 3 lower tier candidates, who are contesting the caucuses very hard, who are very serious political figures. Gov. Bill Richardson,(truncated)Chris Dodd, and Joe Biden, these are enormously influential and powerful figures, in democratic politics, who are under 15%, in Iowa, and so are going to get disproportionately punished by the rule you asked me about".




I don't understand? The question was about the 15% viability.

[gateley]

4. I am honestly ignoring all this stuff -- I don't understand it, for one thing,

and stuff happens all the time that NOBODY could have predicted.

[NI4NI]

5. missed it......hope for re-run later n/t

[1corona4u]

6. It's in the link above

[1corona4u]

7. k

[youthere]

8. I don't understand what he's talking about at all..

they don't know who or what is "second tier" until the actual night and who shows up for whom at each precinct. Hillary Clinton might very easily become a "second tier" candidate if she doesn't get people to show up at caucus.
That was one of the problems Dean faced in 2004. he was one of the supposed front runners, and in most precincts he didn't have anyone show up to caucus for him, and in the precincts that did turn out for him were easily persuaded to realign.

[Frustratedlady]

9. I have to go to headquarters tomorrow to pick up some supplies

and I'll ask. I can't figure it out, either.

[dsmmom]

10. You need 15% for viability

That's it. There are no penalties. For every candidate you just need to hit 15%. It's pretty simple.

*edit* 15% is if your precinct has more than 5 delegates and up to 25% in some precincts*

[Frustratedlady]

11. That was my understanding, too. The guy wrote a book on the caucus,

so I sure can't figure out what he is talking about. Maybe they'll correct it later.

[dsmmom]

12. Maybe he's talking about delegate apportionment

as depending on your precinct you can have a difference of say 10 supporters after viablity, but end up with the same number of delegates which could seem like a penalty if you're the candidate with more supporters. That could be our scenario tomorrow night as we have a very large precinct with a high number of delegates. I did some scenarios on the caucus calculator which will be very handy. HQ sent it to us. If it would be helpful, I can forward it to you, if you haven't already received it.