"Venezuela's Term Limits"

[Peace Patriot]

This article is a gem.

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Venezuela's Term Limits

February 14th 2009, by George Cicariello-Maher - CounterPunch

The story is a familiar one. Amid the collapse of two-party dominance, an independent leader rises to power. In an effort to calm frazzled nerves, he insists he will respect the rule of law and the will of the voters by maintaining the peaceful transfer of power at the end of his legally-established term. "There's no organization that I know that would put somebody in charge for a long period of time," he insists, "you always want turnover and change." But in power for nearly eight years, having established a fervent support base and concentrated power in his own hands, our fair leader no longer feels the need to comfort his opponents, and his discourse radicalizes as his view of term limits shifts. Dismissing his opposition as rigid "dogmatists," the leader now insists on the need to change course flexibly to meet circumstances. True and sustained change, he argues, requires the continuity of his successful leadership.

Unsurprisingly, his opponents fiercely oppose the move as dangerous: "It shows a fundamental contempt for the democratic process," one maintains, "and it's changing the rules to benefit yourself directly." Ironically, it was this very same argument that the leader himself had made five years prior, when vetoing efforts to loosen term limits. Not without controversy, then, was the decision of the region's largest newspaper--aligned politically with the leader--to wade into these conflictive waters with the following declaration:

"The bedrock of... democracy is the voters' right to choose. Though well intentioned... the term limits law severely limits that right, which is why this page has opposed term limits from the outset... Term limits are seductive, promising relief from mediocre, self-perpetuating incumbents and gridlocked legislatures. They are also profoundly undemocratic, arbitrarily denying voters the ability to choose between good politicians and bad."

While the paper had previously insisted that any change to term limits come through popular referendum, it now reverses this view, taking the position that for reasons of political expediency, a simple vote in the small executive council will do.

Of which banana republic are we speaking, where thinly-veiled authoritarianism threatens democratic checks and balances, and weak-kneed apologists parade about under the banner of free press? Why, the place is none other than New York City, the leader none other than Michael Bloomberg, and the newspaper none other than the New York Times. Patience: we haven't even gotten to the hypocrisy part yet. (MORE)

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/4209

[Peace Patriot]

1. "Yes" on lifting term limits is poised to win, according to polls.

From the above article:

As Sunday's referendum vote approaches, all indications are that it enjoys the support of a clear, and increasing, majority of the Venezuelan electorate. This fact is borne out in recent polling data released in Venezuela by polling firm GIS XXI. According to the polling firm, 52.9% of voters currently support the effort to eliminate presidential term limits, with only 40% opposing. Moreover, when faced with the statement, "If the people support him, President Chávez has the right to run in the elections as many times as he likes," nearly 70% expressed agreement, and almost 75% characterize the President's leadership as either "very good" or "good." The more independent Venezuelan Data Analysis Institute (IVAD) has, surprisingly, given a more significant margin of victory to the "yes" vote, which it estimates at 54.6% versus 45.5% against (the margin separating the two having increased a full 3 points in recent weeks).

Even Datanálisis, a notoriously anti-Chavista polling firm whose director once insisted to the Los Angeles Times that Chávez needs to be assassinated, currently gives the referendum a margin of more than 3 points. While such a margin may seem unsurprising to anyone familiar with the reigning political atmosphere in Venezuela, it comes as somewhat of a surprise from Datanálisis, which just in December had the referendum losing by nearly 15 percentage points. And another opposition pollster, Hinterlaces, shows the election to be a dead heat, but does so only on the basis of misleading, urban-only polling, knowing full well that Chávez regularly outpolls the opposition by more than 20% in rural areas.

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/4209

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The writer lays out very clearly why "Yes" has improved from a dead heat to as much as a 5% lead: the idiocy of the opposition (for instance, rightwing students getting caught with a truckload of molotov cocktails), combined with new energy and mobilization by Chavez's support base. He has enjoyed high approval ratings all along--so it's just a matter of getting out the vote. He wants to run for a third term, and it looks like he will be able to.

This writer (George Cicariello-Maher) misses one likely reason why lifting the term limit failed in Dec 07 referendum. It was combined with equal rights for women and gays--among a total of 69 amendments on a wide variety of issues. Venezuela is a Catholic country with a particularly rightwing (and political) clergy. The opposition ran ads saying that the 69 amendments would result in the government taking children from their mothers. The hot button equal rights issue and the complexity of the ballot (which the writer mentions as the chief cause of failure) caused 10% of normally pro-Chavez voters to abstain or vote "No." It was a very close vote (50.7% vs. 49.3%). That religious complication is not present in the current referendum, which is a very simple issue: pro or con, term limits for president and other offices (including governors and mayors).

[Judi Lynn]

2. I remember when the director of the Venezuelan poling company, Datanálisis, Antonion Gil told

a reporter that Hugo Chavez should be murdered. It was staggering learning this clown, who expected people to buy his poling data as being legitimate was going around speaking publicly about his hatred for the elected President of Venezuela like that. There's no question about his level of credibility. I can NEVER believe anything Datanálisis publishes.

You notice our own media simply opt NOT to inform US readers about anything concerning Venezuela which can't be stretched to spin violently against Chavez, just like the Venezuelan fascist opposition. The matter of the truck heading the opposition students' unauthorized march (which they chose to put in motion at exactly the same time and place as the previously authorized pro-Chavez march) contained those molotov cocktails. What we got, instead, was some troll poster telling us it was the Police Department which brought them. Uh, huh.

As Mark Twain said, Samuel Clemmons, "The truth is still putting on its boots while a lie is halfway around the world."

[Judi Lynn]

3. Very interesting item floated up in this article, in a quote by President Obama:

From the article:

~snip~
....Rep. Jose Serrano (D-N.Y.), who recently proposed lifting presidential term limits in the aftermath of Barack Obama's election. Obama himself would add, "I'm generally not in favor of term limits... I believe in one form of term limits. They're called elections."

Thanks for posting this information. Very, VERY helpful.