Interesting Honduras projections in this Miami Herald story

[Billy Burnett]

{Bolds R mine}

Rumors of Manuel Zelaya's return put Honduras on edge
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/v-fullstory/story/1145326.html

BY JIM WYSS
[e-mail]
TEGUCIGALPA -- Amid increasing rumblings Thursday that ousted President Manuel Zelaya may carry out his threat to retake the presidency by force, Honduras reinstated a curfew and warned the population to be on the lookout for those bent on rebellion.

In a televised speech, Roberto Micheletti -- who is serving as de facto president -- said there were ''unofficial'' reports that Zelaya might attempt to enter Honduras along the southern border with Nicaragua.

Zelaya spent Thursday with members of his cabinet in that neighboring country, where he has found a staunch ally in President Daniel Ortega.

While no one in the Zelaya camp would provide details about his plans, officials close to him said he was determined to return.

''It's best for everyone if he goes back soon -- any day now,'' Zelaya's presidential advisor, Allan Fajardo, told The Miami Herald in Managua. ``He is willing to risk everything to try once again.''

The last time Zelaya attempted to return, on July 5, the army blocked the runway of Tegucigalpa's international airport, preventing him from landing. As his supporters scaled the fence, shots were fired and one teen died.

On Thursday, Fajardo said Zelaya was studying all of his options.

''He will try to return by parachute, boat or plane -- any way he can get there,'' Fajardo said. ``There shouldn't be the least amount of doubt about that.''

Zelaya's foreign minister, Patricia Rodas, echoed those claims to reporters in Bolivia, saying that Zelaya was ''already on his way'' back to Honduras.

Both sides were scheduled to meet in Costa Rica on Saturday to resume talks aimed at breaking the political stalemate that has both Micheletti and Zelaya claiming to be the legitimate leader of this nation of 7.8 million.

Speaking from the Honduran embassy in Nicaragua earlier this week, Zelaya said that if the crisis was not resolved by week's end he would ''take other measures'' to reclaim the presidency, even if it risked bloodshed.

Zelaya was ousted at gunpoint by the army after he broke the law in his headlong pursuit to hold a national referendum that might have allowed him to redraft the constitution. With just six months left in his term, Zelaya's foes -- including the supreme court, the attorney general, congress and some members of his own party -- feared he was attempting to modify term limits and hold on to power.

The ratcheting up of tensions puts additional stress on this impoverished nation, which has seen its economy hammered from abroad and within.

Domestically, business owners have had to deal with the temporary closing of the international airport, a stifling curfew and street protests that snarl traffic and scare away clients.

Juan Miguel Flores said protesters had painted graffiti, broken windows and ransacked some of the 20 fast-food establishments he supervises across the country.

''We've had to repaint that building four times in the past two weeks,'' he said, pointing to a Popeye's eatery as a wave of pro-Zelaya protesters, wielding banners and spray-paint cans, marched down a principal avenue recently.

Across the street, Alberto Villatoro said his ''Tiernas'' nightclub had been closed down for three weeks.

''With this curfew, they're treating the business community like the enemy,'' he said. ``I could understand it for a day or two, but this has been abusive.''

Despite the grumblings, economists say the nation should be able to weather the crisis, at least until November, when regularly scheduled elections are expected to ease tensions.

Shortly after Zelaya was deposed, the Organization of American States, the United Nations and the European Union condemned his ouster and threatened to suspend aid. The United States has said that about $180 million in U.S. aid could be in jeopardy. But the statements were more mirage than reality, local analysts said.

Disbursements to the government have been tapering off since 2008, as Zelaya refused to present a budget and failed to maintain an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

''The political crisis gave international lenders an opportunity to confirm what they had already decided,'' said economic analyst Julio Raudales, a professor of macroeconomics at the National Autonomous University of Honduras.

That has left the nation increasingly reliant on Zelaya's ally President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela. Of the $226 million in foreign aid Honduras received during the first five months of this year, 76 percent came through Petrocaribe and ALBA, organizations funded by Venezuela. In the wake of the crisis, that nation, too, has suspended aid.

Still, Honduras has two assets that should help it weather the storm: some $2.5 billion in foreign reserves and an equal amount of expected remittances this year.

Those crucial dollars will allow the nation to prop up its currency and pay for imports, said Mauricio Díaz Burdett, an economist with the Honduran Social Forum for Foreign Debt and Development.

''According to the projections, we could hold on for four to five months . . . without facing an economic calamity,'' Burdett said. ``Despite all our problems, there is a certain degree of stability -- not due to international aid, but due to remittances.''

While not a single foreign government has recognized the Micheletti administration, trade and cross-border commerce continue, said Fernando García Merino, the executive director of the National Association of Industries.

If the international community carries out threats to isolate the country, it's only the poor that will suffer, he said.

''The business community can handle a blockade for six months or a year,'' Merino said. ``But the workers in the field? The farmers? They cannot.''

During a visit to Miami on Thursday, the head of Honduras' banking association said that the financial system was operating normally.

''Our banks are open and are making loans, providing foreign exchange to clients and have not shut down because of the change in government,'' said Roque Rivera Ribas, president of the Honduran Association of Banking Institutions.

But few believe the country can go it alone for too long.

''What would be truly critical is if this drags on for more than a year,'' said Raudales, the economic analyst. ``The government has a hot potato in its hands.''

Special correspondents Tim Rogers in Nicaragua and Joseph Mann in Miami contributed to this report.

[EFerrari]

1. So, the vampiros would be okay until November

but not the people.

[Peace Patriot]

2. There is a notable amount of disinformation in this article, which we have come to expect

from the Miami Herald. For instance:

"Zelaya was ousted at gunpoint by the army after he broke the law in his headlong pursuit to hold a national referendum that might have allowed him to redraft the constitution. With just six months left in his term, Zelaya's foes -- including the supreme court, the attorney general, congress and some members of his own party -- feared he was attempting to modify term limits and hold on to power."

Zelaya wanted to put an ADVISORY referendum to a vote of the people, on whether or not to hold a Constituent Assembly to discuss, re-write and VOTE ON a new Constitution. It is entirely wrong--and a repeated rightwing LIE--that this referendum, which would not have even had the force of law (more of an opinion poll), had anything at all to do with term limits. It didn't. And if passed, it could not have been implemented any time soon. Several years, at least--long after Zelaya was out of office.

But the financial stuff is interesting. It is wise, however, NEVER TO TRUST the Miami Herald. Beware of their facts, quoted commentators and analysis. I wouldn't use them without vetting them. Inca Kola News might be helpful; it always is on Latin American financials. And always ask, with the Miami Herald in particular, what is the hidden fascist, Miami mafia, Puke agenda? What is their goal here? My first guess, to buck up the coup and its fascist supporters. They have grave economic threats hanging over them--potential economic boycott by all of Latin America, by the EU, and possibly (although not likely) by the U.S. But the former two can inflict considerable pain. They are very isolated, surrounded by countries with leftist governments (El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala). Zelaya and the left in Honduras have strong and powerful allies in South America, where the left predominates. And even countries with rightwing governments (Mexico, Colombia) have condemned their coup. No one supports them, except the fascist Bushwhacks here, with possible pockets of out-of-power fascists in countries like Venezuela supporting them covertly--and, of course, U.S. taxpayers as unwitting supporters to the tune of about a billion dollars total. If the latter ever leaks out here--how much we're paying the coupsters--even that might be in jeopardy.

So the Miami Herald cooks up some stats, and rounds up some experts, and throws it all together, trying to make the coup government look viable. This is just a quick guess. But it's the sort of thinking we really need to bring to Miami Herald articles. They cannot be trusted, even on simple, checkable facts--nor certainly on interpretation, analysis or chosen experts.

[Billy Burnett]

3. Thanks for the heads up to the non regular LatAm forum browsers.

I should add a disclaimer to any Miami Herald articles I post for new users. I just assume that the regulars here know what a stinking fishwrap the Herald is.

:hi: