Cubans hope Raul Castro brings reform

[Bacchus39]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080220/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/fidel_castro;_ylt=AhMy1YD0g7oGLR11H_kDEVe3IxIF

HAVANA - After a 19-month tryout by acting president Raul Castro, Cubans seem ready to focus on what his government will bring once Fidel Castro formally steps down as Cuba's all-powerful leader on Sunday.

Their expectations, already raised by Raul Castro's talk of "structural changes" and "big decisions" to come, couldn't be higher. Many Cubans hope he will let more people open businesses, own homes and even travel abroad.

But given that Raul is already 76, it could fall to a new generation of leaders to fulfill or frustrate Cubans' dreams of prosperity.

As acting president, Raul Castro has only hinted at reforms, a reticence many see as a sign of respect for his more doctrinaire older brother. And while hoping that Raul and his likely No. 2, Carlos Lage, will advocate for change, Cubans wonder how that will fly with 81-year-old Fidel, who made it clear Tuesday that he isn't going away, even though he's stepping down as president.

"There has to be some change, more freedom with Raul," said Andres, 63, who like many Cubans wouldn't give his last name for fear of reprisal when talking about the Castro brothers. "The other one always nipped that off at the bud."

The resignation, announced Tuesday, should give Raul Castro more autonomy than he's had as the government's caretaker since Fidel was sidelined by intestinal surgery in July 2006.

The younger Castro raised expectations of openings in the state-controlled economy with his reported fascination with Chinese-style capitalism, calls for unspecified "structural changes," and acknowledgment that government wages averaging $19 a month do not satisfy basic needs. He also encouraged Cubans to open a fearless and critical debate, as long as they remember that the final decisions will be made by the island's Communist leaders.

"That way we reach decisions, and I'm talking about big decisions," he told student leaders in December 2006.

Many Cubans want to hear more such talk from their next leader. Inspired by Raul, some leading Cuban cultural figures have called recently for dropping onerous visa requirements and other limits on their freedoms, a message that resonates with ordinary Cubans.

"This is what we needed. I hope to God people have more freedom — the freedom to have opinions and always speak their minds," 37-year-old Lydis Perez said after dropping her son off at school. "People talk in the hallways or the back rooms. ... There's a lot of fear."

Fidel Castro, however, insisted in his resignation letter Tuesday that he won't disappear — or stay quiet if he sees his revolution going astray.

"This is not my farewell to you," he wrote. "My only wish is to fight as a soldier in the battle of ideas. I shall continue to write under the title, 'Reflections of Comrade Fidel.' It will be another weapon you can count on. Perhaps my voice will be heard."

As the Council of State's first vice president, Raul Castro has been his brother's constitutionally designated successor for decades, so the big question is who will take his place as No. 2 on Sunday when the National Assembly selects Cuba's new leadership.

A leading candidate is Lage, the de-facto prime minister, who at 56 is a full generation younger than the Castros. He's among the most experienced leaders in a power structure dominated by septuagenarian former rebels, and he has built a reputation as a reformer.

A less likely possibility could emerge from a handful of leaders in their 30s and 40s, such as Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, whose Communist fervor earned them the collective nickname of "Young Talibans."

While no less loyal to the elder Castro, Lage was the architect of reforms that saved the island from economic collapse in the early 1990s. His moves allowed foreign investment in state enterprises, a measure of self-employment, and legal use of the U.S. dollar.

Raul Castro appears to get along with Lage, who is a quiet, pragmatic organizer like himself. Raul backed Lage's earlier reform proposals, especially farmers markets where excess crops are sold at market prices.

But both Lage and Raul Castro say any change will not be at the expense of socialism. And Lage has dampened hopes that Cuba would follow China and Vietnam in allowing capitalist markets to thrive.

"Their successes and failures should enrich our efforts," Lage told managers of state enterprises last year. "But the building of socialism in Cuba is only possible as a result of our own experiences."

Raul also has championed the concept of closer ties to the United States, offering again and again to discuss normalizing relations with Washington. But the Bush administration ruled that out Tuesday, deriding Raul Castro as "Fidel Lite."

That means that the nearly five-decade U.S. embargo of Cuba will remain in place for the known future — frustrating both Cubans and many Americans who see much potential in trade with the island, not only for business but as a catalyst for change.

And despite a detailed U.S. plan meant to encourage a "democratic transition" from the Castros' rule, Cuban officials insist the island's socialist political and economic systems will endure.

For now, that means Cuba's tiny dissident community can only wait, and hope that the new leadership will be more open to change from within.

"History will say if it is a good day," said Oswaldo Paya, whose Varela Project seeking a referendum on civil rights and electoral reforms was quashed under the elder Castro's rule.

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[Mika]

1. Made in Cuba

Made in Cuba
http://www.newstatesman.com/200802200005

Cuba is already transforming and not towards a discredited neoliberal model - Fidel’s retirement is part of a home-grown model of transition, argues Pablo Navarrete

In the wake of Tuesday’s announcement by Cuban leader Fidel Castro that he will “neither aspire to nor accept” another term as the country’s president, much of the analysis in the mainstream media has concentrated on whether Fidel’s retirement will usher in a “transition” period for Cuba’s socialist revolution, now in its 50th year.

But while the transition being talked about by these analysts foresees a globalised, neoliberal economy, Cuba has in fact been engaged in its own distinct transition for the past year or so, when illness resulted in Fidel handing over power to his younger brother Raul in July 2006.

Under Raul Castro, the Cuban revolution’s leadership has initiated a series of far reaching debates within Cuban society about the type of socialism that it sought. Through various mechanisms Cubans have been actively participating in determining the future direction of the country’s revolution. During this period Fidel has largely remained in the background yet the widely predicted implosion of Cuba’s revolution has failed to materialise. Instead, the revolution has shown that it can both survive without Fidel at the helm and make the type of changes needed to renew the island’s socialist model.

It now seems that Fidel has reached the stage where he feels able to let go and let a new generation of revolutionaries lead the island’s political process. In his resignation letter Fidel said of these: "Some were very young, almost children, when they joined the fight in the mountains and later they filled the country with glory with their heroism and their internationalist missions. They have the authority and the experience to guarantee the replacement. There is also the intermediate generation which learned with us the basics of the complex and almost unattainable art of organising and leading a revolution."

So, rather than a chaotic turn to capitalism, as occurred with the demise of the Soviet Union – and which Fidel has sought to avoid at all costs in Cuba - the changes taking place in Cuba so far seem to be controlled by the leadership yet importantly also contain a significant degree of popular participation in moulding the model of society that Cubans aspire to.

Two inter-related factors have been critical in ensuring the survival of Cuba’s revolution and facilitating the transition currently underway in the face of continued U.S. opposition. The first is the rise to power of a number of left-wing governments in Latin America, the so-called “pink tide” sweeping the region.

In particular, the election of Hugo Chavez to the Venezuelan presidency in December 1998 has been of incalculable importance for Cuba. As well as providing invaluable economic support (especially access to Venezuelan oil), Chavez has spearheaded an ideological assault on the failed neoliberal policies that Washington has promoted in Latin America. With his fiery rhetoric Chavez has also reignited the anti-imperialist discourse that has characterised Fidel’s Cuban revolution and many of the social movements that are once again on the march in the region. By standing shoulder to shoulder with Cuba and daring to talk of “21st century socialism” Chavez has conferred a level of legitimacy on Cuba that many predicted would disappear with the crumbling of the Soviet bloc.

Indeed, Chavez’s ‘Bolivarian revolution’ – named after Simón Bolívar, who liberated Venezuela and much of South American from Spanish colonialism – has become a reference point for the left not only in Latin America but across the world. And the alliance that Cuba has formed with Chavez’s Venezuela and other governments such as those of Evo Morales in Bolivia and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua has meant that Cuba feels more secure that at any point since the end of the cold war, when it was left without friends or support.

The second factor concerns the current US government’s inability to impose its agenda for transition in Cuba due to the severe weakness of its Latin American policy. The Bush administration’s fixation with the “war on terror” and its involvement in Iraq has meant that its policy of “regime change” in Cuba has failed to find public support in Latin America.

Such is the loss of the US political influence in Latin America that a statement released yesterday by the secretary general of the Organisation of America States (OAS), José Miguel Insulza, said that the Cuban people should be allowed to determine their own future, free from foreign interference. The significance of this lies in the fact that Cuba was famously suspended from the OAS in 1962 at the behest of the US

In light of all of this, the announcement of Fidel’s retirement seems much less dramatic than what we have been led to expect. The fact is that Cuba is already changing, and rather than signalling the beginning of a move towards a discredited neoliberal model, Fidel’s retirement merely forms part of a home-grown model of transition.