The Colombian Public Opinion Industry is Álvaro Uribe’s Biggest Ally

[Judi Lynn]

The Colombian Public Opinion Industry is Álvaro Uribe’s Biggest Ally
September 17, 2009
Marc Lizoain

Álvaro Uribe, President of Colombia and Washington’s key ally in Latin America, is marching towards another term in office. After a month where he was laid low by swine flu, last week his parliamentary allies finally were able to pass a law which allows a referendum on a possible third presidential term. If the law is approved by the Constitutional Court, the only remaining obstacle will be the votes of the Colombian people.

Uribe has drawn much praise from the international press since his his first election in 2002. A graduate of Harvard Extension School, he is a strong supporter of free markets, has a famously firm hand in his fight against the FARC guerrillas, and is a man of such rectitude that he claims he has not been to the movies in forty years. But today while still full of admiration, even conservative newspapers are beginning to give space in their pages to discussing whether Uribe should abandon his dream of a third term. In the L.A. Times, there are suggestions he is turning into a caudillo, a term it might normally reserve for a leader like Hugo Chávez. In the Miami Herald, Uribe was urged to “drop this foolish idea.” The Wall Street Journal notes that “even investors are wondering whether it is the best option for the country.”
Fortunately for Uribe, the Colombian media still support him the best way they can, by commissioning low quality polls on his popularity. Last month I wrote about the serious problems with polls by Invamer Gallup, but they are just one of many offenders. For example, a poll from March of this year by Datexco, another Colombian research firm drew conclusions about the nation based on a sample of just 350 people! And no pollster cares to find a way around the problem that they are uniformly excluding rural Colombians, as well as the 15% of city dwellers that Gallup admits do not own phones.

The Colombian people have been subjected to a media bombardment of flawed poll results about Uribe. Since 2008 polls attempting to determine support for a potential third term have been coming out at the rate of at least one every two months. This is particularly interesting because a second reelection for Uribe until last week was a hypothetical question. If we cast our minds back to 2008 or 2000 we will remember that even in the U.S., the birthplace of polling, the public did not constantly see polls asking them about whether they wanted a third Bush or Clinton term. Is there really such a public clamor for Uribe to stay, or is this more similar to the strong media support that helped Mike Bloomberg force through an amendment to New York City’s term limits law last year?

A September 10 article in El Tiempo, Colombia’s largest daily and a strong supporter of the Uribista line helps to shed some light. The headline states that according to Invamer Gallup, 64% of Colombians support another Uribe term, and 58% would vote in an eventual referendum. This raises the question: why would there be a difference of 6% between the percentage of the population that supports another term and those that would actually show up to vote? The reason is because the headline misinforms. According to the data gathered by this survey, 86% of those who would vote in a referendum would vote to allow a third term. This means that at best, only 50% of those surveyed would actually vote for Uribe in a referendum, far lower than the trumpeted 64%.

The article also quotes Jorge Londoño, the president of Invamer Gallup, affirming that in two months, Uribe’s approval rating has risen by 3% and his favorability has risen by 2%. Last week, I pointed out that results that fall within a poll’s margin of error are statistically insignificant. Due to ignorance of survey methods, it is a common media practice to note tiny changes in poll results as representing either a rise or fall in support for a given position. But Londoño, the president of Colombia’s prestige polling firm has no such excuse. He knows exactly what he is doing: misleading the Colombian people.

Álvaro Uribe has refused to give a straight answer as to whether he wants to run for the presidency in 2010. He has repeatedly stated that it would be “inconvenient to perpetuate the presidency. “He could have easily vetoed last week’s referendum bill, and ended all discussion, but he has chosen not to. Yesterday, El Tiempo reported that a private meeting took place between Uribe and four Uribista pre-candidates for 2010, three of who have already said they would step aside if he chose to run. He again refused to explicitly state his plans, but over the course of the three hour discussion he told them to be ready to defend the banners of his government.

The pious Uribe feels he has a moral obligation to defend his country from threats internal (FARC) and external (Venezuela, Ecuador). Where does he get the strength? El Tiempo has the answer: he feels “empowered by the high public support reflected in the polls.” If the Constitutional Court allows the reelection referendum to take place, it is quite possible that Colombia will experience four more years of Uribe’s firm hand. When Colombians look for someone to thank for their good fortune, they should not forget their friends at Invamer Gallup and Datexco.

http://thefastertimes.com/publicopinion/2009/09/17/the-colombian-public-opinion-industry-is-alvaro-uribes-biggest-ally/