Fidel's last laugh
By going quietly, Castro has again confounded the US and its 50-year
obsession with overthrowing the Cuban revolution argues Brian Wilson
19 February 2008
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/brian_wilson/2008/02/fidels_last_laugh.htmlWith his dignified announcement of resignation, Fidel Castro has
completed the inadvertent 18-month transition through which, one last
time, he has confounded the United States government and its 50-year
obsession with overthrowing the Cuban revolution.
The Americans have nurtured a simplistic game plan for decades, fed by
their own self-delusions about Cuba. Castro would die, the oppressed
people would rise up and the Americans would walk back in. It was always
a nonsensical misreading of what the Cuban people would either desire or
tolerate but today it looks even more ridiculous than before.
What the Americans never contemplated was the possibility of Castro
giving up power while still alive and presiding over the transition to a
new leadership, committed to the same political and social system. Maybe
it would not have happened if he had retained good health. But in July
2006, Castro's illness created the conditions for change without any
room for dispute.
While his brother Raul, who is only five years younger than Fidel, took
over the most senior position as expected, there also emerged a more
collective approach to government. Previously, every decision of
significance had to pass through the president - as had grown inevitable
due to his longevity in office and also his extraordinary grasp of
detail on every aspect of Cuban society.
Nobody doubts that the central tenets of Cuban government policy have
remained much the same in the intervening 18 months. But the style is
significantly different. The Cuban people have not been asked to accept
a single successor who was suddenly expected to fill Fidel's role.
Instead, there has been growing awareness of the others in the Cuban
leadership, alongside Raul, whose roles have been enhanced on the basis
of unmistakeable ability.
So life in Cuba will go on without the kind of cataclysm that the
Americans were counting on. Life with Castro as revered ex-president
will be very little different to what it was with him as formal holder
of the office. In other words, transition has occurred according to a
script which - from the Miami point of view - could hardly have been
worse. They might celebrate his retirement but it is certainly not the
victory that they were looking for.
The US and also our own government, which does not do much independent
thinking on these matters, would be well advised to steer clear of
interference in Cuba's internal affairs over the coming months. Whatever
changes follow will come in the Cubans' own time and for their own very
good reasons. Pragmatism as much as ideology has always played a
significant part in Cuban policymaking and in due course, they will make
their own assessments of how things must change.
Cuba is going through a relatively good period economically, with
buoyant tourism revenues, a high nickel price and the massive bonus of
cheap oil from Venezuela. The American trade embargo is, as ever, a
spiteful waste of time. The Cubans are not going to be ground down
economically and the Americans would show some common sense by taking
this opportunity to acknowledge that fact and call the whole thing off.
It would be an appropriate moment for the European Union to extend a
much clearer hand of friendship to Cuba. Countries like Spain and Italy
already do huge levels of business with Havana. More generous political
recognition of the lessons that Cuba can impart to the developing world
on the great humanitarian causes of literacy and health care would also
make sense for any country which has in interest in influencing future
developments in Cuba.
Only fools will proceed on the basis of malign wishful thinking. Fidel
Castro will go down in history as the man who defied the world's
greatest superpower for almost half a century. He could only do so
because the vast majority of the Cuban people supported him in that
fundamental objective. That is not going to change.
.......................................
Brian Wilson is a former Minister for Energy and patron of the Cuba
Solidarity Campaign.