U.S. Won't Recognize Honduras Election Without End to Crisis

[struggle4progress]

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. won’t recognize a scheduled November election in Honduras without a resolution to the political crisis that began with a coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya in June, a State Department aide said.

The U.S. has told the “de facto regime that because of the environment on the ground, we will not recognize the election,” Philip J. Crowley, spokesman for the U.S. State Department, said in Washington yesterday ...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a2eFCeRCVn.Y

[Peace Patriot]

1. Obama/Clinton still have an out, if what they want is a rightwing government of Honduras

with passable credibility. It's almost October, a month before the scheduled election. The Junta has said it will take about a week for them to undo their recent proclamation that Hondurans don't have any civil rights at all, and can be beaten, arrested for "sedition" (peaceful protest) or killed with impunity. There's one week, and more crippled or 'disappeared' leftist activists out of the ballgame. If they restore things to their previous state, in "about a week"--i.e., fewer outright abrogations of civil rights, but still a state of siege in which there is no redress in the coup courts for injured leftists, opposition media still can't broadcast (cuz all of their equipment has been destroyed) and fear haunts the land--that's another week of prep for the 'election.' A couple of weeks more to go.

Then, sometime during the final period before the 'election', the Junta will suddenly acquiesce to the Arias Accord (which gives them immunity for all their crimes), let Zelaya act as president again (with "limited powers," as per the AA), and pull themselves behind a veil. The 'election' will proceed (run by the Honduran military which has promised to punish anyone who doesn't 'vote'); they will then put forward a "new face" of the backgrounded Junta, who will be all lovey-dovey for a while (won't prosecute the bogus charges against Zelaya, and won't beat up and kill leftists for a period of time). And everything is secure. The global corporate predators can continue their sweatshops (without having to pay a decent wage). The ag sector can continue enslaving farm labor and gobbling up peasant lands. The US military base at Soto Cano, Honduras, can get back to "training" the Honduran military. The Constitution written by Reagan's henchmen will also be secure.

I'm not sure that this what Obama/Clinton want. I don't want to be naive about them or US policy in Latin America. But I think it's possible that they have been dealing with an insurrection of some kind, by Bushwhack moles in the State Department, the Pentagon, the CIA and other US entities--who plotted this coup and pulled it off, to, a) sabotage Obama's stated policy of peace, respect and cooperation in Latin American, and b) as part of a Rumsfeld-era oil war plan for South America. (Honduras doesn't have oil, but it does have strategic location, and a long history of being used as a "lily pad" country for US aggression in the region; and there is quite a lot of other evidence of a war plan, with Venezuela and Ecuador--two big pots of oil adjacent to Colombia--as the primary targets.)

IF this is the case--that Obama/Clinton have been engaged in a sort of "hawks vs doves" internal struggle--it could account for the dubious aspects of their behavior--their seeming to wink at the coup, and their dallying for two months before taking serious action against it. Also, their slowness to designate this as a military coup--which would have triggered automatic and immediate sanctions (would have been very effective in Honduras, which is so dependent on US aid)--may have been because that law also triggers the matter going immediately to Congress, which is full of obstructionist Puke and "Blue Dog" vipers who support the coup. Pukes are already holding up Obama appointments in Latin America because of Obama's public position against the coup. (And this is keeping Bushwhacks in place in the L/A diplomatic corps in particular.) It is only nine months into the Obama administration, and it makes sense that, following eight years of the Bush Junta, he would have trouble gaining full control of the government.

The Honduran junta's obduracy--its seeming confidence that no one can touch it, even with the entire world condemning it--could come from private Obama/Clinton signals, but it could also have come from rightwing forces here--like John McCain, who has been funneling millions of US taxpayer dollars to rightwing groups in Honduras, through the "International Republican Institute"/USAID, and of course the Otto Reich/John Negroponte crowd, and maybe even ES&S--the far rightwing corporation that just bought out Diebold and now controls most of our election system. Possibly they have assured the Honduran coupsters that, in three years, Obama will be out, and they should just hold on while another coup is arranged here. This US/Honduran cabal may have miscalculated as to the reaction of the Honduran people (where a full scale leftist democracy movement has now mobilized), and Zelaya's persistence and his international support, as well as underestimating/misjudging Obama (and Clinton). If so, they would be advising the Honduran coup leaders to hold out as long as possible, in the current climate, and arrange a last minute compromise that essentially keeps them in power (which is exactly what the Honduran junta appears to be doing).

Obama/Clinton's very recent statement that they will not recognize a coup-run election argues in favor of this scenario--that they have been on the right side all along, but have only slowly gained control of the situation. It's also notable that Zelaya and other Latin American leaders have NOT openly blamed Obama/Clinton for this coup. (I think Chavez said something like 'Obama is the prisoner of the Pentagon'--but it was more sympathy than condemnation.) There is certainly a rumble in the region, because it's such typical US behavior. But all of the leftist leaders have been very restrained about placing blame on the current administration. And there are some hints that Obama/Clinton helped Zelaya return to Honduras (or at least went along with the plan, which was probably mostly devised by Brazil).

When you think about how gravely this Honduran coup threatens Obama policy and his reputation and standing in Latin America, this scenario has a lot going for it--that it was planned by Bushwhack/war profiteer forces here, and that it possibly took Obama/Clinton by surprise and they had a hard time getting a handle on it. They are not innocent, of course, of largely representing corporate interests--especially Clinton--and you gotta wonder about their support for the brutal fascists in Colombia--but this event in Honduras has shocked the continent (the loss of democracy in a country where democracy was thought to be secure) and is not likely the sort of thing that Obama wants to be known for. But I guess only time will tell what has really gone on with this. We the People of the US, who are paying for it all, have damn little handle ourselves on what our government is up to. We must resort to guessing and "reading the entrails."

[Braulio]

2. The Honduran Coup threatens Obama policy

That's news to me. I'd say what threatens Obama is his inability to get a health care reform law passed, and the mess he's making in Iraq and Afghanistan. Latin Americans are more worried about bread and butter issues than a small time country like Honduras. The key to success for US foreign policy in Latin America is to slowly re-approach with Cuba without having the GOP make too much noise, prop up the Colombian, Peruvian and Brazilian governments, and contain Chavez. And they seem to be doing fairly well.

[Peace Patriot]

3. "Contain Chavez"? Why?

"Latin Americans are more worried about bread and butter issues than a small time country like Honduras."

I don't agree. Latin Americans are concerned about DEMOCRACY, and have done boffo hard work on establishing democracy and strengthening democratic institutions throughout the region. Democracy is the fundamental condition for all change for the better. Without strong democratic institutions--such as transparent vote counting--Venezuelans would not have free universal medical care, free college educations and all the other social programs, bootstrapping assistance and development projects that the Chavez government is pouring the oil revenues into, as the result of transparent elections and responsive government.

Why should these things be "contained"? The Chavez government is the regional pioneer on social justice and government that is responsive to the people? Should that be "contained"? And what about Chavez-inspired projects like ALBA (regional barter trade group) and the Bank of the South (regional control of development money with social justice goals)? Should they be "contained"? Please specify what "Chavez" has done that ought to be "contained"?

Seems like we could use some health care here. I wouldn't mind that idea spreading. Or are you in sympathy with the Honduran coup general who said that, by their coup in Honduras, they had "stopped the spread of communism from Venezuela to the United States"?

Virtually all of the leaders of Latin America have expressed alarm at the Honduran coup. They do NOT consider it insignificant ("a small time country"). That kind of thinking is over. The big countries are helping the little countries. Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, and also Chile, helped Bolivia stop a US-backed coup by white separatists a year ago September. Brazil has helped Paraguay (which elected a leftist government last year) re-negotiate its hydroelectric contracts to get a fairer deal for Paraguay, because, as Brazil's president, Lula da Silva has said, they need to "raise all boats." Venezuela has helped several countries get out from under ruinous World Bank/IMF debt. The watchwords are cooperation and solidarity--watching each other's backs, as to US interference--and economic integration (culminating in the formalization of the South American "common market," UNASUR, last summer).

And many of the leaders of Latin America have been deeply involved in trying to restore democratic order in Honduras--including Lula da Silva of Brazil, the head of the OAS and various OAS diplomats, the president of Costa Rica (with the Arias Accord), the presidents of Venezuela, Nicaragua, Argentina and others. It is a VERY IMPORTANT issue to them, as they have repeatedly said. Because these leaders al know how much the "bread and butter" depend on democracy.

As for threatening Obama policy: Honduras is a US client state, with an economy based on US-based global corporate predator sweatshop and farm labor, US aid (including multi-millions of US tax dollars to the rightwing coupsters from John McCain's US taxpayer funded "International Republican Institute," multi-millions to Honduras' oligarchic "ten families" from the Hillary Clinton-run Millennium Corporation, and multi-millions in military aid), and remittances from the US. It has a US military base (where the coup plane carrying the kidnapped president stopped for refueling) and hundreds of US soldiers, and has a long terrible history as a "lily pad" country for US war and death squads in the region (against Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala).

It is therefore nearly impossible to believe that the "School of the Americas"-trained Honduran military, or its oligarchy, would do anything like this coup without okays from at least some elements in the US government. In addition, the US has been behind every fascist coup in Latin America over the last century. The Obama administration was very slow to take action against this coup, and even now has not done everything it can to help restore democracy. This may be because of Bushwhack moles in the Pentagon and the State Dept, and fascist Pukes like McCain, but until it's clear WHY Zelaya's plane was refueled at a US airbase (when the embassy had notice of the coup), and WHY the multimillions kept flowing from the US to the Honduran coupsters for several months (with some money still flowing) and WHY it took so long for the junta's visas to be pulled, etc., even I--a big Obama supporter--am suspicious of our government in this matter, and Latin Americans have a lot more reason for immediate concern, since it is their governments that are threatened with another wave of US backed fascist coups.

And there goes the "bread and butter," my friend. A fascist coup--and even just rightwing rule--means THEFT BY THE RICH and massive poverty for everyone else--if not torture, deaths and 'disappearances' for anyone who dares to object.

That's what should be "contained"--not the Bolivarian Revolution.

[Bacchus39]

4. agree for the most part

I think Obama may have wanted to more substantial overtures to Chavez and the likes of Ahmadinijad but reality and their bizarre behavior leave them screaming from the sidelines and Obama reaching out to rational leaders. I believe Chavez said on Larry King with Obama, US-Ven relations have worsened.

Brazil was an easy start. and with Colombia, well, even if Obama was suspicious early on, the fact that Colombia agreed that the US can use their bases for drug interdiction is going to make it difficult for Obama to castigate or preach to Colombia.

and of course latin americans are more concerned with bread and butter issues in their own countries than Honduras. the best thing for Honduras is to move past El Loco.