Fewer Cubans are migrating to U.S

[Billy Burnett]

Fewer Cubans are migrating to U.S
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/southflorida/v-fullstory/story/1257006.html

The reason behind the decline in Cuban migration
is anyone's guess, though many say the economy
and enforcement may be big contributing factors.

A year ago, U.S. Coast Guard vessels plying the waters between Florida and Cuba were busy stopping dozens of Cuban migrants each and every month.

Today, Coast Guard cutters are still operating in the Florida Straits -- but Cuban migrants are harder to find.

That's because fewer undocumented Cubans are leaving the island for the United States, not only through the traditional route across the Florida Straits but also through the newer route across the Yucatán Channel to the Mexican border.

The sharp decline is evident in the number of Cubans intercepted in the Florida Straits and those landing on South Florida beaches.

Consider: In the 12-month period between Oct. 1, 2007 and Sept. 30, 2008 -- the federal fiscal year -- almost 2,200 Cubans were interdicted in the Florida Straits and almost 3,000 landed on area beaches. But with less than a week left in the current fiscal year, less than 1,000 Cubans have been stopped at sea and less than 600 have made it to land.

And even the number of Cubans arriving at the Mexican border, the most popular route, is down from the previous fiscal year: 5,621 versus 10,030.

No one knows precisely why fewer Cuban migrants are arriving in the United States.

But U.S. officials, experts on Cuban affairs, recently arrived Cubans and community leaders cited several possibilities: the U.S. recession, stepped-up enforcement in the Florida Straits, Mexico's toughened migrant policies or less restrictive U.S. Cuba policies. Others suggest that we should not read too much into the current numbers.

``I just don't find the numbers tell any part of the story definitively,'' said Phil Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute where he monitors Cuban affairs. ``To me, it's normal ups and downs, fluctuations in the migrant flow.''

Similar declines in the Cuban migrant flow have occurred before -- but mainly after a mass migration event.

Under the Cuban Adjustment Act, Cuban nationals who reach U.S. soil are entitled to stay regardless of whether they have a visa. And under the wet-foot/dry-foot policy enacted under the Clinton Administration, only Cubans intercepted at sea are repatriated. Those who touch U.S. soil stay.

RISK FACTORS

Rosa Martín Vergara, who arrived by plane from Cuba less than a month ago, said fewer Cuban migrants are taking to the sea because of the risk involved in making the voyage, and Mexico's recent crackdown on undocumented Cubans.

``These and other factors are probably deterring many people from leaving,'' she said in an interview Friday at the downtown Miami office of Catholic Legal Services.

In October, Mexico and Cuba worked out an agreement under which Mexico would repatriate undocumented Cuban migrants. Until then, undocumented Cuban migrants discovered in Mexico were fined and given temporary transit visas that enabled them to reach the border.

Up until recently, Cuban migrant landings from Key West to Palm Beach were almost a daily affair. While many Cuban migrants arrived on rafts or homemade boats, in recent times the bulk traveled aboard go-fast boats.

Officials at the Coast Guard and at Immigration and Customs Enforcement credit increased enforcement. ``For years now, we have been working better and smarter with our DHS and local partners and we were able to maximize our resources and minimize duplication of effort, sharing information,'' said Victor Colón, assistant chief patrol agent with the U.S. Border Patrol Miami Sector.

At the Coast Guard, Capt. Peter Brown, chief of response operations for the Miami-based Seventh Coast Guard District, said more prosecutions have occurred partly because of a change in the law that enabled authorities to charge suspected smugglers with failure to stop -- even if they are not carrying migrants.

Cuban affairs experts and Cuban exile community leaders cited other possible reasons.

OBAMA'S ROLE

Ramón Saúl Sánchez, president of the Democracy Movement and a fervent advocate of Cuban migrants, said it was possible that President Barack Obama's April decision to lift all travel and money remittance restrictions might have played a role in persuading would-be migrants to stay home.

Under President Obama, Cuban exiles can now visit relatives on the island or send them money without limits. Under President George W. Bush, exiles could only travel to the island once every three years and could send only $300 every three months.

``The new policy of allowing more family contact helps to strengthen family ties and relatives miss each other less since people here can travel back and forth more frequently,'' Sánchez said.

[flamingdem]

1. I can guess some reasons ..

They all know people in Miami, or know about life in Miami, and they have heard that la lucha, the struggle is not so much easier there.

Also, I'm sure that they have all heard plenty about the horror stories
of the Cuban Mafia terrorizing migrants who arrive to the shores of Mexico. Plus, the idea of people dying at sea because of the criminals who run the boats that charge 7,000 to stuff you and fifteen other people into a barely seaworthy vessel.

My personal experience with a friend was that he initially wanted to go but when he thought of missing his family, he changed his mind. And he had a job waiting for him in Miami. Many of them can go legally, eventually, so they would rather wait it out. And many really do not want to leave Cuba.

I think that there is not that much optimism about an opening with the US, but there is some. There is a lot of positive feeling towards Obama.

[Billy Burnett]

2. The story of Juan Carlos Rivera's stabbing death at Coral Gables high has made an impact in Cuba.

Apparently there are several musical tributes, Cuban rap, to the boy and this horrific story on Cuba's radio stations and hot items on CD and tapes.

[Judi Lynn]

5. Unbearably wrong thing to happen to that young man. So damned sad.

It probably did discourage some people who might have been tempted to come over.

Who needs that kind of stress in his/her life?

[Bacchus39]

9. they risk their lives to come over in rafts. I doubt one murder is a factor

in their decision.

[Braulio]

3. Some guesses as to why less Cubans go

1. They've run out of wood, rope, and other materials to make rafts
2. They're hoping Fidel Castro will die soon and Raul will change things
3. They're getting more cash from their rich relatives living in the US and elsewhere.
4. Their relatives in the US aren't encouraging to come as much because they're taking a hit from the economic recession, they hear from recent arrivals who're having trouble finding jobs.
5. After all these years, all the Cubans with the personality to risk a raft ride are gone, and the ones left behind are the timid ones who don't think it's worth it.

[Billy Burnett]

4. Or ... (some missing guesses for your list) ...

6.Too many Chubracabras in Miami.
7. Castro has eaten all the babies for so long there's not enough young'uns to paddle.
8. The rum is better this year.
9. Now that high speed internet porn is coming (so to speak), what's the point?
10. The Cuban peso will soon be worth more than a US dollar. ;)

[Judi Lynn]

6. We knew it was only a matter of time before he got greedy enough to eat a whole generation!

Something should be done! I'm appalled, what about you?

[Downwinder]

7. +

[Braulio]

8. Castro does keep the population steady

I checked over this deal about Castro eating babies, and I think there's a different issue here: Cuba has legalized abortions, and they have them with glee. Also, Cubans have a tendency to leave if they get the chance. This keeps the population level. I wonder if this also influences the crime rate, evidently having less young males running around ought to keep the crime rate down, as it does in the USA.

[Judi Lynn]

10. You don't grasp the concept MOST Americans believe this is the woman's choice. n/t

[Mika]

11. "Cuba has legalized abortions, and they have them with glee."

It takes a twisted mind to actually believe such a bigoted thing. I can't believe that someone would be so utterly batshit whacked as to post that.

:puke: :puke:


Braulio, congrats .. you've become the Glenn Beck of the Latin America forum.

[Billy Burnett]

12. lol

+1 :thumbsup:

[EFerrari]

13. So, it bothers you quite a bit that Cuban women have a choice.

Check.