1. He first has to be nominated by the uribista coalition of the U. Even if he becomes the U's candidate, there is certain to be a second round after the May 30 presidential election. The party of the U (Partido Social de Unidad Nacional) was formed last year by the cream of the uribista movement to thrust him into a third term. Well, they failed last Friday.
2. Santos and Uribe last week pissed each other off. Santos on Wednesday (two days before the ruling) said the Constitutional Court was going to turn down Uribe's bid for a referendum. Santos was highly irritated that he was not able to campaign because Uribe was playing it coy about whether he would run or not, right up to Friday's court ruling. Candidates have to be selected by March 14, so Santos has only two weeks to campaign.
It has long been known that Andrés Felipe Arias is the favorite of Uribe to take his place. He is called "Uribito" (Little Uribe) in Colombian political circles. Arias is a former agriculture minister in the Uribe government and in his physical appearance, he even resembles Uribe.
3. Santos' remark ticked off Uribe, so on Thursday, one day before the court ruling, Uribe gave the "guiño," (wink) to Arias, also a potential candidate of the U. On a radio show, Uribe said Arias was "an improved copy of me." That had to be a bucket of ice water on Santos, who was expecting Uribe to back him.
4. But Arias is already smeared because a Semana columnist published documents a couple of weeks ago that Arias had received substantial political contributions from Agro-millionaires who in turn had gotten millions of dollars from the Uribe government. That story was broken by Cambio magazine, which was shut down about three weeks ago by the Santos family, owners of El Tiempo, which of course is touting the candidacy of JM Santos.
5. But even were Santos to win the primary and go into a second round runoff, there is no guarantee that he would win the presidential vote because many Colombians consider him an extension of Uribe's corrupt and murderous policies which led to the news today that Obama has rejected any FTA with Colombia until human rights are respected.
6. Finally -- into the Twilight Zone of Colombian politics -- chat rooms last week were abuzz that Uribe still COULD be the candidate again despite the court ruling. The scenario: Santos or Arias win the candidacy.
7. If it is Santos, he could be "disappeared;" a national emergency could be declared, the election could be canceled and Uribe stays as president. (Which made me wonder why CIA director Leon Panetta visited Uribe for one hour in the presidential palace on Thursday, one day before the court ruling???)
8. Scenario 2: Arias wins the candidacy. But there is an article in the constitution that says a candidate (Little Uribito) can resign and another one (Uribe) can take his place.
9. There are several other candidates from a slew of parties, but best to wait until March 14 before listing them.
10. One of the more interesting of that bunch is Noemí Sanín, who has been rising steadily in the polls. She was Uribe's ambassador in London until last year when she resigned to run for the presidency from the Conservative Party (opposed to Uribe). A woman president for Colombia? Why not?
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