Whoever Becomes Brazil's Next President It Won't Be an Anti-Lula

[Judi Lynn]

Whoever Becomes Brazil's Next President It Won't Be an Anti-Lula
2010 - March 2010
Written by Arthur Ituassu
Monday, 29 March 2010 16:33


As a cooling Rio summer sees the refreshing "March waters" clean the streets of Ipanema and the souls of the Cariocas after the Carnaval, the political season is warming up. Beyond the next big occasion for many Brazilians - the South Africa-hosted football World Cup in June 2010 - lies a series of nationwide elections on October 3: for the Brazilian congress, state governors and legislatures, and for the presidency itself where if necessary a second-round run-off will be held on 31 October.

What makes the presidential contest all the more riveting is that for the first time for a generation, one of the great figures of modern Brazilian politics, president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will not be a candidate. After waging three unsuccessful contests (in 1989, 1994, and 1998), Lula won the presidency in 2002 and has served two terms which in many ways have transformed Brazil.

Now he is leaving the stage, since Brazil's constitutional term-limits forbid a third consecutive period in office; though so successful has Lula been, that his return in 2014 must be at least a possibility. In any event, Brazilians are now faced with a great democratic test in which new figures - albeit in most cases familiar ones in the Brazilian political scene - will emerge to command the stage.

What does this moment reveal about the nature of Brazilian democracy in 2010, and about Lula's own impact and legacy?

The campaign starts officially at the beginning of April 2010. Brazil's leading parties are preparing intensely for the fight, none more so than the two giants: president Lula's Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers' Party / PT) and the former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso's Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (Party of the Brazilian Social Democracy / PSDB). Their competition promises to be one of the most intriguing aspects of the election.

More:
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/217-march-2010/10375-whoever-becomes-brazils-next-president-it-wont-be-an-anti-lula.html

[protocol rv]

1. Lula was good for business, and he sure is no Chavez

So of course they love him all over Brazil. Unfortunately, he hand picked Dilma to replace him, and she's pretty bland, the last time I checked she's behind in the polls.

[Meshuga]

2. Yes, in the same way Lula is not anti-Fernando Henrique Cardoso in practice

While he was anti-FHC in rhetoric for obvious political reasons.

José Serra or Dilma Rousseff will continue the same true progressive left route that Brazil has been taking which is a different kind of left than the nationalist/populist kind of Chavez, Morales, et.al. While I understand the reaction to US intervention in these countries, I don't think the answer lies on these types of leaders. Years of abuse from colonialism, neocolonialism, and imperialism is resolved with long term well thought out plans rather than immediate policies that gives the perception that one is an advocate and father figure of the poor masses. Obviously, the poor will be extremely happy with so little after centuries of being mistreated by foreign powers and elites so they will support the power hungry populists like Chavez. Regardless, I'm glad Brazil chose the route of "we'll work with anybody" rather than falling in the polarized "we are either pro-US or pro-Chavez" bullshit. If Lula (and other Brazilian politicians from PT or PSDB or whatever party) are willing to show that they can lead Brazil into prosperity while helping other countries thrive I give all my support to them.

Lula is popular for not being the man Brazilians feared. He proved to be a smart politician who engages the world while working on behalf of Brazil. After so many years of ruthless dictatorship, Brazilian voters are not interested in a populist authoritarian from either the left nor the right. Lula was smart for not falling into that and now he is enjoying the benefits with his popularity.

I'm a Brazilian born American citizen but I have to vote at the Brazilian embassy this year in order to be able to get my Brazilian passport to visit family (in Brazil voting is an obligation, not a choice) and I am going to have a hard time picking a candidate this time around.

[Peace Patriot]

3. Rightwing DU commenters conveniently ignore the fact that Lulu and Chavez are good friends,

meet monthly to discuss political/economic issues, and are closely aligned on many important issues. This is the latest CIA/corpo-fascist press "divide and conquer" strategy: Lulu good, Chavez bad. It is ridiculous. And its echoers at DU are equally ridiculous.

What is happening in Latin America is UNITY in opposition to U.S. dictation. That is why this 'meme' is being promulgated, from inside "the Beltway," of a contest between Lulu and Chavez--to try to destroy the unity that has been achieved. The movement toward unity could not be more obvious than in Lulu's and Chavez's common policies, for instance, their insisting on national control of their oil and the use of oil profits to benefit the poor, their defiance of the U.S. on friendly relations with Iran, their refusal to knuckle under to U.S. pressure on Honduras, their common philosophy of "raising all boats" (helping the smaller and/or poorer Latin American countries so that everyone prospers), their assertion of the sovereignty of Latin American countries, their leadership on creating Latin American institutions that exclude the U.S., and specific instances of Lulu's highly visible backing of Chavez in defiance of the U.S. dictate that Latin American leaders must "isolate" Chavez.

"Protocol rv," for instance, mindlessly repeats this CIA "talking point"--Lulu good, Chavez bad. It is meaningless. Both leaders are hugely popular in their countries and are pursuing commonly worked out goals aimed at a Latin American "common market"--strength in numbers, the strength of unity (having each other's backs), the strength of control of Latin America's rich natural resources and the strengths of real social justice and real democracy. If Latin America pulls together, this will be Latin America's century. Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, et al, tried to make it the "new American century"--"American," to them, meaning only the U.S.--with their dreadful "Project for a New American Century," such as the U.S. invading Iraq and slaughtering a hundred thousand innocent people in the first weeks of bombing alone, to steal their oil, creating torture dungeons around the world, and destroying the U.S. Constitution, not to mention the evils they inflicted on Latin America, including massive slaughter of union leaders, human rights workers, community activists, peasant farmer leaders and others in Colombia, coup attempts Venezuela and Bolivia, the bombing/raid on Ecuador, their residual coup in Honduras, and the general horrors of the corrupt, murderous, failed U.S. "war on drugs." To them, power is bloody force. They hijacked the U.S. military to their purpose of world domination.

Latin Americans abhor what the U.S. has become, and are pursuing a quite different vision of what power is and who it should help, and Lulu and Chavez have been outstanding leaders of that new vision, working in close accord with each other. The only hope that U.S. corporate rulers and war profiteers have of destroying that common vision is by methods of bribery, "divide and conquer," "dirty tricks," and aggression. The U.S. has lost all moral authority--vastly eroded by the war on Iraq, and exacerbated recently by the sneaky U.S. support of the rightwing coup in Honduras--and has further lost much of its economic bludgeon power, thanks to the Bush Junta's Financial 9/11, and also thanks to Hugo Chavez's leadership in creating the Bank of the South and breaking the vulture grip of the World Bank/IMF loan sharks on Latin America. Our corporate rulers are furious about Chavez's influence and especially about his accord with Lulu. That is why rightwing DUers repeat over and over and over again that there is no such accord and that, well, 'Lulu good, Chavez bad.' It would be laughable if it did not contain such potential mayhem and murder, and had not resulted in mayhem and murder already, in Colombia and Honduras.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

4. It's Lula. nt

[Peace Patriot]

5. "Lulu" is Lula da Silva's nickname. nt

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

6. No, Lula is his nickname from Luiz Inácio, not Lulu. It's right there in the article above. nt

[Meshuga]

7. Lula is the nickname. n/t

[Meshuga]

8. Who is right wing?

People are not right wing just because they disagree with you or because they disagree with Chavez. Give me a break! There is more to the left than Chavistas, Peronistas, Getulistas, etc. You don't need to consider others who disagree with these groups as right wing.

Besides being friends with Chavez (which is no crime), Lula's administration is totally different than Chavez's and as a Brazilian I am one of those who give Lula praise and would help raise his approval rating if anybody called me. On the other hand, I am not impressed by Chavez even when he gives the impression that he is good for the poor.

Sorry to burst your bubble but Lula is a smart politician and knows how to play both sides in the benefit of Brazil and the region.

There is obvious distrust for the US in Latin America (and with good reason as you cite examples) but I think Lula is much more effective creating leverage for Brazil with his alliances than Chavez is with his rhetoric that (in my opinion) benefits him personally but hurt Venezuela in the long run.

[Judi Lynn]

9. US's right-wing has ALWAYS pursued power over Latin America arranged through the oligarchs

in each country through bribery, coercion, if they don't agree with US right-wing goals already, and we all know, those of us who DO look for information, that in a preponderance of cases the right-wing greedy, ruthless, murderous a-holes in our powerful right-wing, when they worm their way into the Presidency, are determined to bring as much suffering and grief to the poor, everyone who would DARE to protest or resent exploitation and monstrous abuse.

Time after time the people of Latin America have been beaten down, terrorized into submission, lasting for decades at times. That is always the PLAN: crush dissent at all cost, do it in such a way the people will live in terror, desperation, and despair, believing they are simply unable to move against so much evil.

We know it, and those who support the oligarchs know it too, including the babbling idiots who attempt to mislead people about the nature of leaders like Lula, who himself, was imprisoned and abused by a filthy right-wing government, and his brother deeply brutalized.

I think this is a place I'd like to add two poll results done in the last year regarding Hugo Chavez, as the thread has been infected already with misinformation:

Venezuelan President Chavez’s Popularity Steady at 60%
Posted on 2010 January 12 by BBVM

According to a study carried out by the Venezuelan Institute of Data Analysis (IVAD), Venezuelan president Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías’s approval has dropped slightly, to 60.3%, from 62.4% last October.IVAD performed the study from 12 to 20 December, interviewing 1,200 people directly in their homes. IVAD selected the interviewees at random but also reflecting a range of regions and social groups in Venezuela.

To the question, “How do you rate Hugo Chavez’s management as president of Venezuela?,” 38.7% said “bad” and 60.5% said “good”. The poll also confirmed that Chavez’s party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV – Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela), continues to be the most popular party.

The poll comes as PSUV, opposition and other party leaders prepare for an election campaign year, where all positions in the National Assembly will be up for election in September.

In May 2008 an IVAD poll said Chavez had an approval rating of 68.8%, and in October last year, 62.4%. IVAD polls tend to reflect greater support for the president than polls by opposition polling agencies.

http://bbvm.wordpress.com/2010/01/12/venezuelan-president-chavez%E2%80%99s-popularity-steady-at-60/

~~~~

Chavez Popularity Slips In Venezuela: Polls
IAN JAMES | 10/22/09 02:01 AM |

CARACAS, Venezuela — Hugo Chavez's support has declined in the polls as many Venezuelans say they are fed up with 27 percent inflation, a stagnant economy, faulty public services – and a government they see as incapable of doing much about it.

The president's popularity has slid in monthly tracking polls from a high of 61 percent after winning a vote in February to 52.8 percent last month, pollster Luis Vicente Leon of the Caracas-based firm Datanalisis said Wednesday, adding that the downward trend in the percentage who view his presidency positively has continued since.

After more than a decade in power, Chavez is still by far the country's most popular, most resilient and most divisive politician. What appears to have changed recently is that more are complaining about the high cost of living and a government that has often fallen far short of its promises.

"Whatever he offers, everything gets half-done," said Maria Martinez, a 32-year-old who once voted for Chavez but now is disenchanted. She says the government's health programs are insufficient, and the $500 or so she earns each month selling books in the street is no longer enough to support her five children.

She said water reaches her Caracas slum only now and then due to a broken main that officials haven't fixed.

"They always say they're going to repair the pipe, and they never do," Martinez said with a frown. "They offer and offer, and they never finish."

Leon, whose polling firm has long tracked Venezuelans' views about Chavez, said that in the past whenever his popularity has dipped near or below 50 percent, it has "set off alarms" for the president and he has found ways to boost his support. He said Chavez has recovered from worse situations before and "continues to be the strongest leader in the game."

In the past couple of months, as the lower poll numbers emerged, Chavez announced plans to bring in more Cuban doctors to staff neighborhood clinics he acknowledged had been abandoned. He also has prepared to boost spending through issuing some $8 billion in bonds.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/22/chavez-popularity-slips-i_n_329760.html

~~~~
We are also aware there has been a full force anti-Chavez propaganda campaign exactly like the campaign directed by Ronald Reagan's Office of Public Diplomacy, headed by Cuban "exile" filth Otto Reich until Congress found him to be indulging in ILLEGAL propaganda tactics, for which he could have been legally taken to court, but was protected by Reagan.

The campaign went totally aggressive under the stolen Presidency of _{George W. Bush,} who sneaked his nominee, Otto Reich, infamous by now for his evil involvement in the illicit Contra war in Nicaragua, who had been soundly rejected by the U.S. Senate, into position in the State Department during a Congressional Recess.

Everyone knows this daily all-out assault in the corporate media, and where it's coming from. We are also aware that the U.S. State Department has made arrangement with a host of paid sociopaths to meddle in internet discussions, trying to bring conversations to a dead stop by interference, and to outshout legitimate people who gather there to exchange the information they work to find.

We already posted a published article on this subject a few months ago, and discussed it as a wave of these people spontaneiously appeared at the same time, as if they had taken a bus to this message board together.

We are NEVER fooled, we are NEVER impressed, we ALWAYS spot through them the moment they slime into view.

We WILL continue to support good on earth, and justice for the people, no one anywhere will defeat good people.

Disruptors' cause is lost here. We're stronger, and we're better people. We believe in people, not the people eaters.

http://media3.washingtonpost.com.nyud.net:8090/wp-srv/photo/gallery/090323/GAL-09Mar23-1769/media/PHO-09Mar23-155858.jpg

Thank you.

[Meshuga]

10. What exactly is the misinformation in this thread?

No one is challenging Chavez's popularity. Anyone who study basic history of Latin America knows that Latin American populists are seen as father figures who are revered by the masses. Latin America is full of these examples which are reaction to imperialism and horrible Latin America policy from the US but these leaders are not necessarily good for the people in the long run.

No one is changing the nature of Lula's way of governing Brazil. I'm sure you will see him visiting Castro, hugging Chavez, etc. But unfortunately we see lots of this too:



I don't understand the accusations when there are obvious differences in how Lula and Chavez govern their respective countries and how they engage with others. One is a smart politician who is part of an evolved left wing that makes alliances on behalf of his people. The other is an old school nationalist who is lost in rhetoric.

No one is criticizing Lula or saying that he does not support good on earth so the accusation that people are trying to change his nature baffles me.

But the bottom line that people need to understand here is that, just because someone disagrees with and harshly criticizes Chavez, it does not mean the person necessarily agrees with US intervention in Venezuela or agrees with the insanely fucked up elite in Venezuela either. The "you are either with one side or the other" that is often implied around here is overly dramatic, childish, and stupid.

Brazil already had a nationalist figure like Chavez who was the father of the workers and father of the poor. But that old model, one that brought good things and bad to Brazilians, does not work anymore. Brazil has a new left that obviously learned from its past mistakes and Brazil is better for it since it is going in the right direction. Extreme poverty that resulted from centuries of abuse is not easily fixed by one administration but the seeds are being planted by the current administration as it was planted by the previous administration and will be planted by the next regardless who wins.

The winner this year will continue the current progressive politics in Brazil and the winner's friendliness or unfriendliness towards Chavez is merely a detail that will only be a factor to the idiots and sheep who fall for the silly "you are either with us or the CIA" bullshit.

[protocol rv]

11. Chavez isn't that popular anymore

The economy, crime rate, power cuts are the main reasons Chavez' approval rating is below 50 %. And it's going to get worse. The Guri dam just went below 250 meters, and it isn't raining.

Looks like the winner in the Brazilian elections won't be Lula's handpicked candidate. It'll be the opposition candidate.

http://en.mercopress.com/2010/03/29/brazilian-opposition-presidential-hopeful-leads-in-polls-by-nine-points

[Meshuga]

12. It is still pretty close and too early to tell

But I think the election is going to be close either way. It is not going to end on October 3rd. There is likely going to be a runoff in November between Serra and Dilma.

The policy is going to be a progressive one no matter who wins but Serra is not "Chavez friendly" at all. In other words, Serra will be smeared as "right-wing" by the chavistas even when his policies are going to be left leaning and a continuation of what Lula, and FHC before Lula, started.