Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Polls and other indicators of a big Chavez victory in the upcoming National Assembly elections...

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Places » Latin America Donate to DU
 
Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-05-10 06:42 AM
Original message
Polls and other indicators of a big Chavez victory in the upcoming National Assembly elections...
The first article may have been posted before, but I didn't see it or didn't grasp its significance (--that the pollster in question is an opposition pollster). I believe that poll results cannot be published in Venezuela in the weeks just prior to an election (--it's a National Electoral Council rule, which I've noted in other Latin American countries, and may be a common "best practices" feature of internationally monitored elections; campaign ads are also forbidden in the final weeks, to avert unfair "hit piece" ads). So this may be the last we'll hear from the pollsters before the National Assembly elections in Venezuela on Sept 26. There are additional indications of a Chavez victory (solid majority in the National Assembly), including a prediction of a 70% voter turnout, and a high rate of participation in the pre-election Vote Simulation.

Sorry if some of this info is repetitive, but it will interest those who don't know it, as prep for the election results.

Chavez currently has, I read somewhere, a 100% majority in the National Assembly, because the rightwing opposition stupidly boycotted the last election (--for no good reason, except that they were going to lose, big time). So they are bound to win some seats in this election. The polls predict about 25%. If it edges up to, say, 30%, prepare for the corpo-fascist press to declare that Chavez is finished, kaput, on his way out, history, the right is "on the rise," it's the "trend," ha-ha! A 70% win is actually a defeat, don't you know?--in the Wonderlandish rabbit hole of the "mainstream" media.


---

Opposition Pollster Predicts Chávez Crushing Victory in National Assembly Elections

By ARTURO ROSALES – AXIS OF LOGIC, August 17th 2010

According to the latest survey carried out by opposition pollster Datanalisis, reported in Ultimas Noticias and TeleSur concerning the September 26th National Assembly elections in Venezuela, President’s Chavez’s United Socialist Party (PSUV) and its allied Venezuelan Communist Party (PCV) are set to rout the right wing opposition camp for the thirteenth time in fourteen elections since December 1998.

The Datanalisis national survey indicates that chavismo will win 124 (75.15%) seats out of the 165 up for grabs, whereas the opposition will win 41 (24.85%). This will give the parties of the Bolivarian Revolution more than the 110 seats required for a 66.7% qualified majority in the National Assembly which will allow organic legislation to be passed into law without having to make any deals with other parties.


http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/5573

--

Polls Indicate Majority for Socialists

By JAMES SUGGETT - VENEZUELANALYSIS.COM
- 8/17/10

(The last six paragraphs, beginning with "Recent voter opinion polls...," discuss the various polls in detail. One of them predicts a 70% turnout which strikes me as very high for a by-election. Big turnouts usually favor the left in most places on earth.)

(Also, Datanalisis, the opposition pollster whose results concur with others predicting a Chavez victory, tried to suppress the results.)

---

As Elections Approach Venezuela Holds Vote Simulation, Promotes Voter Education

By EDWARD ELLIS AND JAMES SUGGETT - 8/30/10

Mérida, August 30th 2010 (Venezuelanalysis.com and Correo del Orinoco International) – Massive participation in an election simulation that took place last Sunday is evidence that Venezuela is ready to carry out its parliamentary elections this September 26, according to the President of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Tibisay Lucena.


(The article is mostly about the extensive efforts of the CNE to conduct a smooth, efficient election and to educate the public on the voting process, but it reports an incident at one Voting Simulation polling place--opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado apparently tried to cut into a voting line, got rebuffed and then claimed that a member of the PSUV (Chavez's party) tried to deny her right to participate. The rightwing is sure the same everywhere, ain't it? )

(Here are the international monitors...)

The simulation was carried out in 52 voting centers around the country as a trial run in preparation for the upcoming National Assembly elections. Its purpose was to test voting machines, evaluate possible problems, and give an overall estimation of how the electoral system will perform in September. To help monitor the September 26th vote, the CNE has invited approximately 150 electoral observers from international entities and organizations in Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Americas, including the United Nations, the Organization of American States, the African Union, the European Union, and the Central American Parliament.

In recent years, Venezuela has successfully completed 15 electoral contests and has been noted for its transparency and high level of voter participation. International observers from the US-based Carter Center and other organizations have praised the system for its orderliness and efficiency.


http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/5600

---------------------------

One other thing I have to say, since it isn't mentioned in any of these articles: Venezuela uses electronic voting, but it is an OPEN SOURCE code system--anyone may review the code by which the votes are tabulated--and they do a whopping 55% audit (comparison of ballots to electronic totals, to check for machine error or fraud)--more than five times the percentage recommended by electronic voting experts whom I respect.

By contrast, throughout the U.S., votes are tabulated on machines run on 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code--code that the public is forbidden to review--owned and controlled largely (80%) by ONE, private, far rightwing-connected corporation--ES&S (which just bought out Diebold)--with virtually no audit/recount controls. I repeat: virtually NO audit/recount controls! Half the states do no audit at all (no paper ballot), and have no ability to do a real recount; the other half do a miserably inadequate 1% audit. Remember this if the Pukes who brought us the Iraq War and Great Depression II regain control of Congress this fall--which the corpo-fascist media has been writing the narrative for.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-05-10 08:26 AM
Response to Original message
1. No polls before elections, what an excellent idea. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bherrera Donating Member (600 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-05-10 10:32 AM
Response to Original message
2. The information listed above is false
I have seen the Datanalisis report, and it shows the opposition is guaranteed 29 % of the Assembly. It also shows 39 % as probably going to the opposition, and a potential 56 % going to the opposition - to achieve this later figure they would need a swing towards the opposition by a large sector of the undeclared or undecided vote.

The government has fixed the districts in such a way, that it is possible for the opposition to gain the majority of the popular vote, and not have a majority of the National Assembly.

The same poll shows the majority of the people lack confidence in President Chavez, and feels Venezuela is headed in the wrong direction. Thus the question will hinge on the events in the forthcoming few days. Given the results, the fixing of the districts may allow the government to retain a bare majority of the National Assembly, which will then lead to more extremism. Becuase the economy is in such bad shape, and there is no hope for recovery, the country will perform a lot worse under the Chavez regime, which will increase capital flight, increase the flight of the middle class, and destroy the country. My projection is that Venezuela will become another disaster country like Cuba, and it will never recover from the Chavez neo-fascist rule. Just like Argentina never recovered from the Peronista neo-fascism.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-05-10 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. What a weird, sorry view of disaster you have. Better relatively poor,
but cared for from the cradle to the grave, than a hell on earth of extreme poverty and exteme wealth, as you clearly favour.

I expect you'd prefer the Guatemalan regime, where many children are dying of starvation, according to an article in today's Sunday Mirror.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-05-10 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. This is the article on the starvation in Guatemala:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bherrera Donating Member (600 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. I prefer pragmatic socialism
your expectations are based on the mentality shaped within your head. it is unwise to state such expectations openly, when you hardly know anything about my person. I, like many people around the world, do not care to be cared for once we become adults. We expect to have the opportunity to use our labour and work for an honest living, and expect to be taxed reasonably by a government which uses the taxes for hospitals, education, public transportation, and other good things. We do not want our taxes to be used to pay for weapons used to bomb other peiople. We want to see a good, effective justice system where the man is presumed innocent, and where the religious or colour are not used to discriminate and jail them. We also expect a reasonable social health and care for the unfortunate people who are handicapped, and who are unable to find work, within reason. But we expect people to work, and do so honestly, so they earn the food and goods they receive.

Therefore, our visions are quite different. Mine has nothing do with Guatemala. I don't even know why you think I like Guatemala, I live in Spain, I like the city where I live, and I would not move to any other place.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Flatulo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #3
33. I can't imagine anything more degrading and humiliating than
being cared for from cradle to grave.

Seriously, man, where is your humanity? Don't you want to do things for yourself, if you're capable of doing so?

Besides, who does all the providing? Someone else?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-05-10 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. We'll have to find out more about your claim Venezuela has gerrymandered districts.
That's an OLD, old practise here, still continuing, unabated, always will, undoubtedly.

What is it you want U.S. Americans to know about gerrymandering? It's been in constant use here since 1812.

~~~~~

Definition of GERRYMANDER
1: to divide (a territorial unit) into election districts to give one political party an electoral majority in a large number of districts while concentrating the voting strength of the opposition in as few districts as possible
2: to divide (an area) into political units to give special advantages to one group <gerrymander a school district>
Examples of GERRYMANDER
gerrymandering urban districts to give rural voters a majority

~~~~~

By the way, do you have any links to credible sources concerning Hugo Chavez' acts of gerrymandering? You'd be doing everyone a favor in providing REAL information on this.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-05-10 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. bherrera doesn't deal in REAL information; he/she deals in "Alice in Wonderland" Red Queen info...
...that is, that the natural white roses are "in fact" red because the Red Queen is red, so they had better get PAINTED red, real fast, or she will have your head chopped off.

Donald Rumsfeld kind of thinking--someone who also compared Hugo Chavez to Adolph Hitler (as bherrera recently did). But who actually resembles Hitler--Chavez, who has no resemblance to Hitler at all, in the real world--if you respect real world facts--or Rumsfeld, who slaughtered a hundred thousand innocent people in the bombing of Baghdad alone, tortured thousands of prisoners and shredded Iraq's secular society with assassination squads and other horrors--in the actual, real, palpable, bleeding human world? Remember how he had a policy of not counting the Iraqi dead? That's your "Red Queen."

bherrera has put himself/herself in the company of congenital liars and psychotic (not living in the real world) mass murderers. As with Rumsfeld, nothing that bherrera says can be trusted, and, indeed, the best rule of thumb is to presume that, whatever bherrera says, the opposite it true. In the REAL world--on the basis of real world facts--Chavez not only bears no resemblance to Hitler whatsoever, he is the opposite of Hitler and bears a great deal of resemblance to FDR, especially as to FDR's "New Deal" policies, and also in respect to what the rightwing of the "New Deal" era called FDR, a "dictator." Rightwingers and corpo/fascists perceive rule by the majority as tyranny. They think that the elite should rule. They are anti-democratic. And how anyone can construe Chavez's policies of empowering the poor majority, doing the will of the people--on health care, education, land reform, use of the country's resources, such as oil, to help the people who live there, maximizing citizen participation in government, opposing U.S. corporate domination, and U.S. bankster and war profiteer looting, fostering cooperation among Latin American countries, and so on, as "fascism," is inexplicable except, as I said, that bherrera lives in the upside down, inside out, backwards world that Lewis Carroll so brilliantly mapped in "Alice in Wonderland" (aka, "Through the Looking Glass").

In the real world of the politics of democracy, the Chavez government would be quite unusual if it hadn't engaged in "gerrymandering." I don't know if they have. I do know that "gerrymandering" can be used for good or for ill--for instance, drawing a district so that African-American votes don't get diluted (denying them representation) but get concentrated, guaranteeing them representation.

Say you have an urban area with a lot of poor black voters concentrated in one place. Would it be fair to splinter off pieces of that area, combining the pieces with adjacent wealthier white suburban areas, so that the districts end up majority white/wealthy and poor blacks can never elect an candidate from their own ranks to represent their interests in, say, a state legislature or congress? It would seem to be fair--if the overall region is majority white/wealthy and blacks are a minority in the larger jurisdiction. But is it, in truth, fair? What is totally fair is that no one sees race or class and no one votes race or class, and all elected officials act in everyone's interests, but that is not realistic. To "gerrymander" a black district--as artificial as that seems--is actually both the fair and the realistic thing to do, to insure representation of the interests of the poor black urban citizens and also to insure the development of political organization and leadership in that area. If the Chavez government is "gerrymandering," and if they are doing it for some analogous reason--to better represent the interests of excluded groups--or for something similar, such as to break up unfair, undemocratic, elite landowner control of an area, then I would say that that is a good purpose. And, given everything else that I know about the Chavez government, I would expect that to be their purpose.

Questions of how representation is structured are very important ones. Our Senate/House structure, for instance, is very undemocratic, in that a huge progressive population like that of California gets only 2 Senators, while a tiny rightwing population in some rural Midwestern and Southern states also gets 2 Senators. The Senate is very powerful. Progressive California (and New York) have extremely poor representation in this very powerful public entity. Political parties and politicians have ever sought to gain or enhance their power through manipulations of the structures of representation. It is a GIVEN in democracy. As I said, it would be unusual if the Chavez government were NOT doing it. (Somebody has to figure out where the population is and how to represent them.) So, to simply say that they ARE "gerrymandering" is meaningless. If the "gerrymandering"--if it is occurring--is being done by a political party, does that party represent most Venezuelans? Has it won lots of elections, by big margins? Is it a party that has taken a particular interest in being a "big tent" to excluded groups--workers, the poor, minorities (as the Democratic Party once was, here)? The answer to that would be yes, in Venezuela. Chavez's socialist party is a "big tent" party. So, if they are "gerrymandering," they are likely "gerrymandering" to improve the political representation of various groups under their "big tent." Are other political parties, including the rightwing opposition, being included in the discussion? I don't know the answer to that. The rightwing parties boycotted the last National Assembly elections, so maybe they excluded themselves, stupidly. I don't know what entity is drawing district lines in Venezuela, but if it is the National Electoral Council--an independent, non-partisan body that sets the rules for elections--all parties must be included (no matter how stupid or unsuccessful they have been). According to Carter Center and other international election groups' reports, all relevant parties and stakeholders have been included in writing the rules for Venezuelan elections. If the power to draw district lines rests with the National Assembly, or a committee of the National Assembly, then the Chavez government and its new political party, the PSUV, would have difficulty insuring opposition participation in drawing district lines. How do you participate with people who won't participate?

When bherrera is challenged to produce facts, information and reality, on yet another of many anti-Chavez statements, he/she descends into extreme name-calling and becomes off-the-wall unreliable on known facts. So I wouldn't trust ANYTHING that this poster says about this matter. But it would be interesting to know how district lines for representation are drawn, in Venezuela, and what the actual rules and actual politics of it are.

And, really and truly, I wish with all my heart that the rightwing opposition in Venezuela would stop taking USAID money, stop taking its "talking points" from the CIA, stop acting like assholes, stop seeing government as a looting opportunity for the rich (as some of their leaders have done), and start becoming a "loyal opposition" that has Venezuela's interests at heart. They were lazy, self-seeking, spoiled and ultimately brutal, when they governed Venezuela. They have displayed the same characteristics throughout the POPULARLY, FAIRLY elected Chavez government, and it is no wonder that, when they deign to participate in Venezuelan democracy, they struggle to get 25%-30% of the seats in the National Assembly and 40%, more or less, in presidential elections. They DON'T represent the good of the country, in the view of most Venezuelans--despite having the constant propaganda of the corpo-fascist press and the U.S. government bolstering them up. Venezuela NEEDS a "loyal opposition." I am the first to say that. And it is only by BEING a "loyal opposition"--a political movement that doesn't have coup d'etats at its heart, a truly representative political movement with constructive ideas, not ideas manufactured in "think tanks" in Washington DC--that it can help Venezuela solve its problems and govern itself in service to all of its people. It is only by BEING a "loyal opposition" that the anti-Chavez opposition can ever hope to achieve legitimate power in a democratic system. Indeed, by being kneejerk anti-Chavez and in service to U.S. corporate interests, and NOT having a positive program in line with what most Venezuelans want--peace and social justice--they deal themselves out.

Venezuela has the largest oil reserves on earth. It has the wherewithal to be a key player in achieving peace and social justice in the greater region, and in the world, even here in the USA. The Chavez government has been the first Venezuelan government--and maybe the first government anywhere--to recognize that oil wealth can be used for good, and to begin formulating policy to that purpose. But it is not perfect, and I am sure that there are elements within the society that have something to contribute, and positive interests to advocate, that don't get a good hearing and aren't served--for instance, small business food retailers impacted by the state grocery stores--vital middle- and lower-middle class business interests, for instance, who, in this country, are the biggest employers. Chavez advocates for a 'fair market,' as opposed to U.S.-backed "free trade for the rich." But does a large government enterprise help create a "fair market"? How is it anything but a stop-gap measure to provide good nutrition to the poor and to help bootstrap the poor? Compassion may require it. But how do you, at the same time, lay the groundwork for a "fair market"--that is, a lively, colorful, truly competitive (non-monopolistic), marketplace, with a wide variety of products and venues--one of the delights of humanity, and probably an essential component of human happiness and a good society?

This is what a "loyal opposition" should be doing in Venezuela--THINKING, as LOYAL opponents, not of the riches to be had, if only they could control that oil again, but of the common good of their country, their region and the world. Instead of relying on corporate TV moguls and other corporate interests to set their agenda, and when all that fascist propaganda doesn't succeed, to organize coup d'etats to put them back in power, they need to jettison those DISLOYAL elements, and become bigger, better people.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rabs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-05-10 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Makes no sense



The poster (#2) says:

The government has fixed the districts in such a way, that it is possible for the opposition to gain the majority of the popular vote, and not have a majority of the National Assembly.

--------------

Which begs the question -- Why in the world would the Chavez government "fix" (i.e. gerrymander) the voting districts so as to allow the opposition to win a majority of the popular vote and still not have a majority in the Congress?

It's like a football (soccer) coach pulling his defensive backs to the midfield and allowing the other team to score goals at will -- and still lose the game.

:shrug:


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bherrera Donating Member (600 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #7
12. it makes sense
This is a trick they use in the USA, and the Bolivarian Chavistas copied it, called gerry mandering. This creates voting districts which will allow the government to retain the majority of the national assembly even if they lose the overall popular vote. I don't see why you don't see this. Maybe you should research the subject using a search engine. The regime is prepared to hold the national assembly by any means, it seems. In reality, the opposition is likely to lose, and in the end Venezuela will become a disastrous country, similar to North Korea or Cuba, with personality worship of a fascist-like leader, hereditary castes, and party oligarchs who live in large mansions. It is the common outcome of this type of process.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rabs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. So why the flip flop?


This is what you said in Post #2. (Caps mine)

The government has fixed the districts in such a way, that it is possible for the OPPOSITION to gain the majority of the popular vote, and not have a majority of the National Assembly.

(This is what you say in Post #12 today)

This creates voting districts which will allow the GOVERNMENT to retain the majority of the national assembly even if they lose the overall popular vote.

------------------

You seem to be confused; your claim of gerrymandering favors the opposition or the government? Now you admit that "the opposition is likely to lose ..."

Btw, I live in the United States and am perfectly aware of what gerrymandering is and its purposes.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChangoLoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. I don't see a difference
In both of the examples, the opposition loses. In both examples, the gerrymandering favors the Govt.

The districts were fixed in such a way, that it is possible for the OPPOSITION to gain the majority of the popular vote but lose the election.
....................................... ............................Government to win the election even if they lose the overall popular vote.

Old "cara pierdes, sello gano" trick.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Gerrymandering favors the political party controlling the state, not the country. Use your head. n/t
Edited on Mon Sep-06-10 03:10 PM by Judi Lynn
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChangoLoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 04:11 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. Why can't it favor the political party controlling the country?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. It does if the political party controlling the state is also the political party
Edited on Mon Sep-06-10 05:33 PM by Judi Lynn
with the President, or the National Assembly.

What's not to understand? Just relax, lean back, clear your mind, and concentrate.

In Texas, right-winger politicians constructed a district which was impossible to believe:

http://www.balloon-juice.com.nyud.net:8090/managed-images/texas22.jpg

Congressional District 22, Texas.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com.nyud.net:8090/2640/4105395489_2c826d5f8c.jpg

U.S. congressional districts covering Travis County, Texas (outlined in red) in
2002, left, and 2004, right. In 2003, the majority of Republicans in the Texas
legislature redistricted the state, diluting the voting power of the heavily
Democratic county by parceling its residents out to more Republican districts.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChangoLoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #25
29. Place your mind beyond the Rio Grande
The states don't have this authority in Venezuela. It's the PSUV deputies who decided all the district dilutions in the National Assembly.

The electoral law was voted last year.
http://www.france24.com/en/20090801-new-electoral-law-favours-chavez-say-critics-
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChangoLoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-10 06:14 AM
Response to Reply #25
38. Still trying to see outside your "congressional district"?
Just relax, lean back... and "use your head"!

Or is the stupidly self-centered view too shameful to admit?

I still can't believe you actually pulled out a phoney example from Travis County in Texas... wow!


"First of all, it is up to each STATE to decide for each 'Congressional District', not to the country...
in Venezuela too I guess... hmmmm, use your head!"
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rabs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #19
27. Gerrymandering or no gerrymandering



The opposition is bound to win seats in the NA simply by fielding candidates this time around.

It was a huge political gaffe last time when the opposition yanked their candidates, giving the PSUV a blank check.

Have you seen any stories on the opposition campaign rallies or who are the candidates? I have not so was just wondering. Are they organized nationwide?

I have seen that the PSUV has been drawing some pretty large crowds to its rallies.

----------------

Oh, for our English speakers

"Cara pierdes, sello gano" refers to a coin toss. "Heads you lose, tails I win."


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. They kept their candidates out, pretending to be making a political statement because they knew
they were going to be hammered flat in that election, and lose all kinds of respect. Everyone knew it.

By staying out, they tried to make it look as if they were "abstaining" from the election because they were being somehow deprived of whatever, trying to divert everyone's atention from the fact they were headed for a total defeat.

After they took the beating from not participating, which probably resembled what would have happened anyway, THEN they started bitching that Hugo Chavez "controlled" the Assembly.

Have you ever seen a sleazier group of people in the world than right-wingers?

If they had a prayer of winning last time, they wouldn't have kept their candidates out. They should have been penalized for trying to hide from the truth that they should have had to face by running, and counting the votes.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChangoLoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #27
31. They won't win the majority. Not even close.
There are two oppositions for this election and both are organized nationwide. The main coalition is the MUD which conglomerates an incoherent amalgam of right, left, new, traditional, ex-chavista parties. My guess is that they'll probably be around 30% of the seats with 40% of the votes.

The new actor, the PPT, presents itself as a left, non chavista, revolutionary alternative. They left PSUV's coalition only months ago, so they won't be getting many votes here. Maybe 5-10%. However, they'll tend to make things become more dynamic after the election. There's a good share of the MUD which belongs to the left and which will naturally be attracted to the PPT's platform heading toward 2012.

The PSUV's coalition will probably get around 70% of the deputies with 50% of the votes.


...

Btw, the heads or tails referred to the sentences, not the political context.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rabs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #31
34. Thanks for this info



I had heard of the Mesa de Unidad Democrática - MUD -- but was not clear on who and what they stand for.

Confess that the Patria Para Todos is a mystery to me -- but a quick google indicates it may be more leftist than the PSUV, aligned with the PCV (Partido Comunista de Venezuela) and advocating "chavismo sin Chavez."

And whatever happened to the adecos and the copayanos? Have they gone the way of the dinosaurs?

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChangoLoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. AD/COPEI are in the MUD
They must be around 5% of the electorate each. Dinosaurs with sclerosis die slowly.

PPT is a particular case. Not on the same level with PCV which is still loyal to the government.

Since it left the coalition, Chavez describes PPT and more particularly Henry Falcon as traitors sold to the imperialists' interests. No reconciliation is possible. OTOH, PCV is trying hard to survive as a party and not be melted into PSUV. That causes a permanent tension with Chavez who's already presented them as potential traitors. Still, they'll get PSUV's support for 5 or+ deputy seats.

PPT wants to distinguish itself from chavismo. They show themselves as a constitutionnalist, pluralist and socialist party eying the 2012 election.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bherrera Donating Member (600 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #4
16. Here's a reference discussing the gerrymandering in Venezuela
http://ovario.wordpress.com/2010/03/07/sistema-electoral-y-circunscripciones-electorales-analisis-y-conclusiones/

I believe this is a credible analysis, and it shows the electoral power, controlled by Chavez, is gerrymandering the districts and procedures to improve their chances to gain a majority in the National Assembly. If you don't read Spanish, I suggest you do a search using english only. There is sufficient material available to confirm the government is seeking the gerrymander advantage.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
VioletLake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. I know you'll like this one, bherrera:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bherrera Donating Member (600 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. The Fascist nature of the Chavez regime - Scholars writings
This is a quote from an article about Latin American "Socilists of the 21st century"

"Several decades ago, British historian Hugh Thomas described Fidel Castro’s regime as “fascist left,” meaning “a regime with totalitarian leftwing goals established and sustained by methods of fascism.” But true socialist goals are seldom realized anywhere, so what emerged in Cuba was the state fascism. Venezuela is moving rapidly in that direction and the danger is that other Chavista-oriented governments, if they survive, will do the same."

The article can be found at

http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1874

I can also quote from an interesting essay written by a Mexican scholar, Enrique Krauze, this quote begins with a quote from Chavez, and continues with a damnation of his ideas, calling them fascist in nature:

""I don't know anything about Marxism, I never read El Capital, I'm not a Marxist or an anti-Marxist", Hugo Chávez said in 1995. He was telling the truth. Chávez was never, in any strict sense, a Marxist, nor was he familiar with the prickly side of Marx, or with his critique of power. Marx criticised the subordination of civil society to a single leader. He criticised the smothering of freedoms and political institutions, the "terrible parasitical organism" of the state, the cult of personality, demagoguery, and plebiscitary rule. And as if that were not enough, he criticised the political use of the past: "The social revolution of the 19th century cannot draw its poetry from the past, but only from the future.... In order to arrive at its own content, the revolution of the 19th century must let the dead bury its dead." Point by point, Marx's critique might have been written in response to Chávez's plan for Venezuela.

But if he does not hail from a socialist or Marxist tradition, what are Chávez's ideological and historical origins? Whether he knows it or not, Chávez is the grotesque progeny not of Plekhanov or Marx, but of Thomas Carlyle. It was Carlyle's historical and political doctrine, condensed in 1841 in the series of lectures published as On Heroes and Hero-Worship, that envisioned and legitimated charismatic power in the 20th century, the same power that Chávez, for all his outlandishness, represents so skilfully in the 21st century. The wishes of his progressive post-Marxist admirers notwithstanding, Chávez comes from a more anachronistic tradition of ideas that does not see history in terms of the struggle of classes or masses, or of races or nations, but of heroes who guide the "people", who incarnate them and redeem them. There is a name for this tradition. It is fascism."

The reference can be found at

http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/hugo-chavez-and-venezuela-a-leader-s-destiny

And if you can read in Spanish, here is a critique of the Chavez government by Dr Dieterich, the man who created the term "Socialism of the 21st Century":

"Uno de los fenómenos políticos más preocupantes del proceso venezolano es un creciente vaciamiento de la ética discursiva del gobierno. En lugar de explicar científicamente la realidad a los ciudadanos, se les trata discursivamente con las mismas técnicas manipulativas que usan los gobiernos burgueses. Con este procedimiento no se crea conciencia revolucionaria, sino clientela. A la atrofia de la veracidad discursiva se agrega el agotamiento progresivo de los dos discursos estratégicos del Presidente: el bolivariano y el del Socialismo del Siglo XXI. El primero, porque no ofrece ya nuevos horizontes al nivel interno del país y el segundo, porque el Presidente no ha creado ni una sola institución económica cualitativamente diferente a la de la economía de mercado, es decir, postcapitalista. El Presidente se encuentra ante la siguiente disyuntiva: o rompe con el status quo pre-decembrino o el continuismo se convertirá en el termidor de la Revolución Bolivariana.

http://www.aporrea.org/ideologia/a50721.html

Here's a definition of fascism, and if one is objective, it is easy to discern the emerging shape of "Socialism of the 21st Century" as a fascist type:

http://www.rense.com/general37/char.htm

You can reach your own conclusions. I can only make the observation that I honestly think the Chavez government is not truly socialist, it is more engaged in corruption and the creation of the cult of personality. The same happened in Cuba, and it is known Castro is mentoring Chavez. But what they create is a nearly-religious movement which is intended to worship them. They are in a sense like Julius Cesar, who destroyed the Republic in a vain movement to turn himself into a God.



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
VioletLake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Now,
a convincing, hyperbole-free argument for each of the 14 "characteristics", please.

Thanks in advance.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bherrera Donating Member (600 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Do it yourself.
Prepare the list, and then compare. I did my good and honest effort to find you reference writings which show the Chavez government does show many fascist traits, and this is not unique thinking I did, this is what is discussed in European progressive circles, we think the Latin American branch called chavism is really a fascist movement, and we support the socialists in Brazil and Chile instead. The ones in Venezuela and Cuba are not true socialists.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
VioletLake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. That's what I thought. Have a nice day. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. Your first two authors are entirely conservative, and only conservative,
one of them connected with the Hoover Institution, for crissakes. Hoover!

The one in Spanish is not viable for people who aren't Spanish fluent, clearly, on this English language message board.

The last one is astoundingly funny to attempt to use in any possible comparison, yet you insist it can be done if the reader is "objective" enough. Good god almighty. It only reveals, once again, how desperate you are to attempt to trick people into accepting your judgement instead of their own far more honest, and moral assessment.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. It's something we recognized in a heartbeat, and so damned sad to admit.
Dr. Lawrence Britt points directly to our (U.S.) own country's government under the domination of the right-wingers.

Our own President Dwight D. Eisenhower told the nation in his farewell speech that we needed to protect ourselves against the growth of the military-industrial complex. He had to learn the hard way just how complete that power was already during his terms in office.

That abuse of power has never been significantly altered at any time.

Any conservatives reading Britt's list of 14 points will believe those points represent the way things SHOULD be. They have done all they could to make fascism permanent here in the U.S.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
naaman fletcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. Anyone who criticizes Chavez is right-wing by definition, correct?
Therefore, any criticism of Chavez should not be taken serious because it is being down by a right-winger.

We know how this works. Trust me the lurkers do, too.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Any lurker can see you're attempting to misrepresent others. Good luck with that. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
naaman fletcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. yet,
you have never, ever, criticized Chavez.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. Do you have any idea how stupid that sounds? Why would I criticise someone of whom I approve? n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
naaman fletcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #26
30. Perfect. thanks for the admission.
people who believe in truth seek and speak truth. Political hacks lie and obfuscate. Whats the opposite of speak truth to power? Lie to opposition?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-06-10 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. You imagine you are participating in a conversation. You are not.
Your comment makes absolutely no sense at all:

~~ People who believe in truth seek and speak truth. Political hacks lie and
obfuscate. Whats the opposite of speak truth to power? Lie to opposition? ~~

Are you attempting to say I am a political hack and I lie and obfuscate?

Why not go ahead and say it? Afraid I would complain and try to get your post deleted?

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
naaman fletcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 03:50 AM
Response to Reply #32
35. I said:
I don't know what you are: What is someone who claims to engage in discussion, but in fact is unwilling to discuss certain things because as she admits why would she ever criticize someone that she supports?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-07-10 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. Spend your time trying to learn more, rather than trying to be a drain here,
trying to take up space where we would expect to see more serious people communicating.

Learn something about the subject FIRST before offering the world your opinion on it.

Most of us here have been following Latin America events for a very long time.

Your level of address is immature, spiteful, and uninformed. You should have noticed that's sub-standard here.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
naaman fletcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-10 06:42 AM
Response to Reply #36
39. laughable
your posts are laughable. I post endless things of discussion. You just don't like what all of them say. You are not discussing, you are advocating. And please don't lecture me about following Latin America. I have lived there. You are the one with the immature and spiteful address. You are informed about things that fit your worldview, but woefully ignorant about anything that does not fit neatly into it.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-10 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. Pinochet lived in Latin America, the fascists in Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay,
Bolivia, etc. lived/live in Latin America.

Even Nazi butchers Klaus Barbi, and Josef Mengele and others lived in Latin America.

They probably knew more about Latin America than you, but they wouldn't have been worthwhile contributors to progressive meeting places.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
naaman fletcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-10 12:40 AM
Response to Reply #40
41. It depends on what you mean by progressive.
Not all of us think that people like Chavez are progressive. In any event, just to be clear: You are an advocate. You do not engage in discussion or the sharing of information. Only information that already supports your stated political goals. That's fine, just stop acting like people who aren't political advocates are fascists.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Tue Apr 16th 2024, 02:45 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Places » Latin America Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC