Ecuador Between Three Wagers - Will the People Come to the Rescue of Rafael Correa?

[flamingdem]

Will the People Come to the Rescue of Rafael Correa?
Ecuador Between Three Wagers

By GEORGE CICCARIELLO-MAHER

As this article goes to press, Ecuador is in a state of surreal uncertainty and political purgatory. Until just moments ago, President Rafael Correa sat injured in a Quito hospital, where he was essentially a prisoner, but the military High Command consistently affirmed their loyalty. In other words, this was a coup that was not a coup. While Correa’s eventual rescue by loyal soldiers means that crisis has been momentarily averted, and despite the flowery rhetoric of the victory speech he is giving as I pen this, an underlying crisis remains and if the correct lessons are not gleaned, the conditions for the permanent overthrow of the Correa government will remain.

Specifically, what we are witnessing in the Ecuadorean conflict is the collision between three wagers, three clashing sectors playing a high-stakes game with the future of Ecuador, and what will matter more than anything else is what role will be played by the popular masses who represent the vast majority of the country and the continent. In the days and months to come, it will be their intervention, or failure to intervene, that will make all the difference in the world.

The Golpista Wager

The long-simmering conflict over government cuts to the public sector was ignited while Correa addressed a crowd of police officers in Quito who were protesting government cuts which would allegedly affect salary increases and benefits paid to police. Suddenly, the stakes of the struggle were raised exponentially we some furious police officers opened fire on the president with tear gas canisters. Correa, nursing an injured knee and wearing a gas mask, was carried off to the nearby National Police Hospital. Once inside, Correa began to receive medical treatment, but the hospital was quickly surrounded by the very same police who had just attacked him, and as reports began to pour in of occupied military bases, police seizure of the National Assembly, and burning blockades from Quito to Guayaquil, the president declared that a coup was in progress.

READ MORE HERE:
http://www.counterpunch.org/maher10012010.html

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

1. This is probably one of the best articles I've read on this subject since last week. nt

[bherrera]

2. Outdated report

Interesting they do mention this was started by labor unrest due to cuts of benefits

[Judi Lynn]

3. The unrest was NOT due to cut benefits. Their benefits are not cut.

Why don't you attempt to get some grasp of the situation? You need to know the facts FIRST before trying to attack other posters for their beliefs, or their perceptions. You need to know the information. LEARN about the subject.

~~~~~
A strike against democracy

Sep 30th 2010, 23:43 by S.K. | QUITO

~snip~
Mr Correa has antagonised many powerful groups during his presidency, but the police have fared fairly well. In a bid to reduce corruption, he increased their salaries from $700 a month to $1,200. He has also bought them new equipment, including Austrian-made Glock pistols. Nonetheless, the overall increase in government spending led some officers to fear that Mr Correa would use their pensions to fund infrastructure investments. On Wednesday night, he used a line-item veto to change a civil-service law that had been passed by Congress, which had the effect of changing the accounting regime for police officers' bonuses. Although his ministers said that the new policy would not harm officers' benefit packages, they still went on strike in response.

More:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2010/09/ecuadors_striking_police

[bherrera]

5. The ministers say the new policy will not harm workers' benefits

But this is not what I read. You see these ministers are now trying to cover a serious mistake. We can not really use the information from the Ecuadorian government nor the strikers to judge the events. Both sides were wrong, both sides cover mistakes.

[EFerrari]

8. There is no evidence of an initial "mistake" of any kind

by the Correa government, which has been very supportive of the national police and in their wallets.

[Bacchus39]

11. Changes announced to Public Service Law that provoked rebellion

fyi:

http://www.eluniverso.com/2010/10/04/1/1355/soliz-dice-gobierno-ap-acuerdan-precisar-puntos-ley.html?p=1354&m=638

[EFerrari]

4. There are two points were I disagree with this analysis.

One, the radical left's wager is a better one than he seems to think, historically. And two, it wasn't the lack of organization in Honduras that prevented a counter coup but the sense that perhaps the new American president would intercede on behalf of democracy for once that led some people to hang back. That question, of course, has been answered for Honduras and for all of Latinoamerica.

[bherrera]

6. How could Obama intercede in Honduras?

Do you think the USA should have used troops?

[EFerrari]

7. Well, we could have denied the kidnap plane fuel at our base for one thing.

:)

[naaman fletcher]

9. False.

We don't have a base in Ecuador. We have no control over any airport in Ecuador. We have no power to detain any plane at any airbase in Ecuador.

Those are the facts.

They have been presented here before.

[Bacchus39]

10. she is referring to Honduras, but it is still false because it is a Honduran base operated by

Honduras. the Honduran air force controls the operations of the base. some US forces are stationed there under the agreement. It is similar to Ecuador in this sense. US forces were stationed at the Ecuadorian base in Manta, but it was and remains an Ecuadorian base.

[naaman fletcher]

12. Yes I meant Honduras, thank you. Nt

[Bacchus39]

13. you are then correct, sir. its a Honduran base and I do believe

the US suspended aid during the replacement government. that didn't motivate the Mitcheletti government to back down. Not much more the US could do.

[EFerrari]

14. Nope. The US did not suspend aid to the Honduran military

nor did it stop training them at the SOA.

[Bacchus39]

17. U.S. suspends military aid to Honduras before talks

you aren't doing so well on your claims.


http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-40913020090709

[EFerrari]

18. Reuters was wrong and Eva showed it. And as for the guys

training at Ft Benning, someone one the ground said they were in the classrooms. Check the archives, I'm not going to rehash this with you.

[Bacchus39]

19. was there some requirement to suspend Honduran military from the SOA?

what would that do???? post a link about the military aid or that the Reuters is wrong. Eva is a Chavez shill just like you so her credibility is suspect.

its a Honduran base and it wasn't up to the US to return Z. Wasn't ALBA going to take care of that? Chavez said he was going to intervene militarily.

[EFerrari]

20. Yes, per US law, we suspend all assistance in the event of

a military coup.

Which is why the Obama administration waffled on ever calling it a coup, as per this article, also from Reuters.

US ends some Honduras aid but does not find coup
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN03112576

[Bacchus39]

21. yes, and the article I posted said military aid was suspended but not humanitarian

on the other hand, you said military aid was not suspended. exactly opposite of what occurred.

[EFerrari]

23. Do you seriously believe the Honduran military was docked in any way at all

for this coup? Or that "humanitarian aid" went to the people who were under curfew all that time when they weren't getting killed by the golpistas? Do you think everyone who works at the State Department wears white gloves and is a greeter?

I have yet to see any evidence whatsoever that any aid was terminated during that time. What the Obama White House said and what they did were two different things, entirely.

[Bacchus39]

25. sure, the military aid was suspended. I don't know what comprises the humanitarian aid

so don't know who was receiving it. why don't you look into it?

and Hondurans are responsible for their own path, not what the US selects for them.

[EFerrari]

15. No matter if you spin yourself into a pretzel or not, it's still true. n/t

[Bacchus39]

16. it is certainly true. the base is Honduran and they control air operations. their air force is

is headquartered there. Honduras controls flight operations. we just posted the info about the base from Wiki link about a week or so. look it up.

its a Honduran base that stations US troops there. the US couldn't stop the flight unless they intervened militarily and violated Honduran sovereignty.

you are wrong. furthermore, the US doesn't have the authority to overrule the Honduran Supreme Court and their Congress who rejected the return Z its up to Honduras who rules there, not the US.

[EFerrari]

24. LOL

[Judi Lynn]

22. The country continued to fund the country's government, regardless of the fact

it had illegally, violently kidnapped and removed the elected President of Honduras.

Washington claimed to be cutting aid to Honduras, yet it continued. So the ongoing financial support of the old Honduran government was extended to the illegitimate government, despite all protestations to the contrary.

PROPER response to a violent, illegal coup is WITHDRAWAL of support.