Poll gives Rousseff lead in Brazil president race

[Judi Lynn]

Poll gives Rousseff lead in Brazil president race
– Sat Oct 9, 5:05 pm ET

SAO PAULO – The first poll published since the first-round of voting in Brazil's presidential race has governing party candidate Dilma Rousseff in the lead for the Oct. 31 runoff ballot.

The Datafolha polling institute says 48 percent of those surveyed back Rousseff. Forty-one percent support the centrist opposition candidate, Jose Serra. The rest are undecided or plan to annul their ballots.

The results were published Saturday by the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo. The poll interviewed in person 3,265 people in 201 counties across Brazil. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Rousseff led the Oct. 3 first-round, getting 46.9 percent of the votes — falling short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Serra got 32.6 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101009/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_brazil_elections

[bherrera]

1. Hopefully Roussef will continue Lula's policies

If Rouseff continues Lula's policies, Brazil can emerge as a world power. If she turns to the left, then Brazil's economy will suffer.

[Meshuga]

2. She will be a continuation of Lula

And Brazil is going to stay on course.

[Meshuga]

3. The race is closer than I thought

But still, only a miracle would take the presidency away from Dilma. Serra may gain in places like Rio but Dilma will pick up more votes in the Northeast.

I believe this number takes into consideration the fact that 51% of Marina's voters are now supporting Serra and that 22% of the same voters are supporting Dilma. (http://oglobo.globo.com/pais/eleicoes2010/mat/2010/10/09/datafolha-se-eleicao-fosse-hoje-dilma-venceria-com-54-dos-votos-validos-922756752.asp)

[Peace Patriot]

4. Any idea why Green party voters would vote for Serra?

Would it be comparable to Green party voters, here, voting for a Republican (i.e., unusual, seemingly self-defeating)? And if it's unusual, why are they supporting Serra (51%)? Some issue we don't know about here?

[Meshuga]

5. The issue is that US politics cannot be compared with Brazilian politics

There is no equivalency.

So I don't think comparing Serra with Republicans in the US is an accurate comparison. There is no doubt that Jose Serra would feel much more comfortable in the Democratic party (in the US) than in the Republican party. The same is true for Lula and the same is true for Dilma. In this aspect, Brazilian politics is better served that the US and I am more optimistic about Brazilian politics than with American politics.

I know people who voted for Marina Silva because they were not so excited about Jose Serra. But they could not stand Dilma Rousseff or bring themselves to vote for her. In other words, I can see these people naturally switching from Marina to Serra in the second round.

The reason so many progressives have their reservations about the Workers Party (PT) is because they perceive PT as a power hungry party rather than a party that is really concerned with the issues. This perception comes from the 1990's when PT (as opposition) were obstructionists to any policy suggested by PSDB even when the policies were progressive in nature. So those who are considered liberals in the modern American sense of the term are split between PT and PSDB.

The bottom line is that Brazilian politics are different and cannot be compared even with neighbors like Venezuela where (in my own perception as opposed to knowledge) there is a significant right-wing opposition to Chavez.

[Peace Patriot]

6. "...could not stand Dilma Rousseff or bring themselves to vote for her." But why?

Progressive voters apparently don't have reservations about Lula da Silva. He has an approval rating in the 70% to 80% range, does he not? And Lula and Dilma Rousseff are closely aligned; she worked for him as his closest aide; he has enthusiastically endorsed her and campaigned for her--she is his hand-picked successor. And I would think that the Workers' Party and the Green Party are closely aligned. What am I not understanding? What do Marina Silva voters dislike about Rousseff? Does Serra not represent business interests, corporations and the wealthy class--as opposed to workers, the environment, the poor--much more so than Lula, Rouseff or Silva?

Thanks for trying to answer my questions. I know that it's hard to guess what's really in the minds of the subjects of opinion polls, and also of voters. But I feel like there is some obvious fact or facts about Brazilian politics--that maybe are too obvious for you to state?--that I don't know, that would make this more understandable.

[Meshuga]

7. Why? Because Dilma is not Lula.

Dilma does not have the charisma of Lula (quite the opposite) and she is seen as someone who has little experience never even winning an election before. Brazilians are not dumb to just vote for a person automatically just because Lula "hand picked" her and supports her even if they think Lula is doing a good job.

And are you trying to say that the Lula administration was not pro-business at all? Both parties invite business and support social programs. Both parties are for mixed economies and have similar policies. You are relying on labels (and what they mean in the US) to understand Brazilian politics and that is why it seems complicated to you. People in Brazil who like one party or the other (Petistas and Tucanos) will use the "left versus right" rhetoric to demonize the other side but the truth is that the candidates are very similar. To say that Serra is "right wing" is equivalent to a Tea Party person calling Obama a socialist/communist. There is no truth to the charge except for those who want to accept the label as a fact.

It would be nice if it was that easy to define Brazilian politics but it isn't. I don't think the Green Party will endorse either candidate because they are worried about being opposition in the 2014 elections but there are individuals in the party choosing to support either Serra or Dilma and that is not surprising. Fernando Gabeira, for example, is a high profile Green (and a lefty) who is supporting Serra.

PSDB and PT are liberal parties in the modern American sense of the word. PSDB is a party that was designed based on the Democratic Party in the US. Both parties have diverse coalitions that include progressive elements and conservative elements. Lula's vice president is a conservative who represents business interests. Does that make Lula right wing? Hardly.

Lula is very popular with 80% approval rating but why do you think this does not translate to more than 60% votes for Dilma? The answer is simple: Dilma is not Lula and not everyone likes her or trusts her. Places like Rio de Janeiro (where the population is more educated and where Marina Silva thrived) are more likely to vote for Serra. The poor areas with the less educated people likes Lula and will vote for Dilma. At least that is the demographics of the election so far.

Being "affluent" and "educated" does not mean the person is not progressive.

[Meshuga]

8. In addition...

I don't think corporate interest would feel 100% comfortable with Serra as president either. I have my reservations about Jose Serra for his negative campagning and his willingness to demonize opponents. But I have to say that he at least had the guts to defy drug companies on behalf of the poor in Brazil to break patents on HIV/AIDS drugs and make them affordable when he was health minister.

[ChangoLoa]

13. "compared even with neighbors"

Actually, I tend to think that historically Venezuela and Mexico have been the most left-leaning countries of the region. The opposition in Venezuela may be very radical and even irrational, but I don't see their political orientation as right-wing. Typical center-left socio-democrats for the 3/5 of them, 1/5 marxist or socialist leftists and 1/5 center-right demo-christians. Actually, in the Venezuelan context, I'm convinced that 2/3 of the PT and Lula would nowadays be in the opposition.

[Meshuga]

14. Thanks for the info!

Like I said, I was talking out of perception and ignorance of the seemingly radical and irrational opposition.

In Brazil the "left versus right" politics does not really exist in the main stream except for the name calling. There is the party in power and the opposition. The truth is that the bigger parties looked for balance when they were in power and the positive results are consequence of this balance.

Thanks again! :hi:

[BolivarianHero]

9. A lot of them are nutbars...

Silva is a right-wing wolf who comes from the same Pentecostal coocoo-cult as Sarah Palin. Some naive progressives backed her in the Distrito Federal, but she's the candidate of American neocolonialism, of which fundamentalist missionaries from cults like Assemblies of God are a prominent manifestation.

[Judi Lynn]

10. The nutbar fundies are desperately afraid of, and despise the Catholic Church.

They hate and fear it as they hate and fear their image of "communism."

It's a completely disorderly, uninformed, nearly illiterate understanding of both the Catholic Church, and of communism. Fundamentalism is THE religion for deeply ignorant, childish, reactionary people who are intellectually dead. They have no ambition to try to learn anything more than they already "knew" as children. Fundamentalism appeals only to people like them.

I've known a LOT of fundies, from childhood onward. Believe me, I know about them, and I can only mourn they have decided to live without using their brains as adults.

[L Cutter]

11. she's the candidate of American neocolonialism

Thank you. That's the answer to the question I was fixin to ask. Considering the history and the reheating of the paradigm, how could that not be an issue?

[Meshuga]

12. Do you mean Marina Silva?

I would not compare her to Sarah Palin (again, there is no equivalency) but the "Assembly of God" link that she has leads me not to trust her and not to vote for her.

I don't have any doubts about Marina's feelings and convictions on the environmental but I am concerned about other issues.

But what do you mean when you say Marina is a candidate of American neocolonialism? Did she say anything in the debates and campaign stops that I missed? Any serious candidate (that includes Marina) who promotes market fundamentalism (that leads to American neocolonialism or other abusive policies) in Brazilian politics is sure to lose the election.

I am not sure why you guys judge Brazilians as stupid to vote for someone spousing such ideas. Market fundamentalism was forced down the throats of Latin Americans and it did not work as any reasonable person can agree. Such policies are not acceptable propositions in Brazilian election.

Perhaps it is viable in the US with the emergence of the Tea Party wackos. But I guess Americans will have to learn it the hard way before the American people as a whole can reject such policies like it is in places like Brazil. Things need to get worse in the US before they get better.