US cable: Cuban opposition out of touch

[bemildred]

HAVANA -- A newly revealed U.S. diplomatic cable describes Cuban dissidents as old, riven by petty rivalries and hopelessly out of touch, with leaders so focused on funding their operations they have little time to mount any serious opposition to the government.

The April 2009 cable, which was marked "confidential" and apparently written by America's top diplomat on the island, advises Washington to put more effort into supporting a younger generation of opponents of the Castro government, including artists, musicians and the blogger Yoani Sanchez.

That the Cuban opposition is small and isolated is not major news, but the fact that Washington has so little faith in the dissidents is surprising. America and Cuba are longtime enemies, and U.S. policy advocates supporting democratic and political change on the island, ruled since 1959 by brothers Fidel and Raul Castro.

The cables, which were made available Friday by WikiLeaks, show Washington is under no illusions that the opposition is ready or able to accomplish that.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/17/AR2010121704298.html

[social_critic]

1. The nature of Cuba's opposition and the future change in the country's society

Cuban citizens who support significant change in the country's political system are not allowed to organize themselves, so they can create a party structure, propose constitutional reforms, and run for the National Assembly and other political offices. The Communist Party reserves for itself the ability to do so, and applies itself to ensure no other political force can emerge.

This of course means it's impossible to understand the will of the Cuban people. Given human nature, it is certain a significant number of Cubans would prefer change. They may or may not be a majority, but it is hard to know the truth because they are unable to express themselves.

Therefore, these comments by the American fascists, and by pro-Castro observers are fairly irrelevant and feeble reflection of the way things are in Cuba. Who knows what they would do if they were able to decide, really decide? I can't claim I do, and I laugh at anybody who makes such a claim. The only thing I can say is that when people are unable to express themselves, and to propose changes, society has a tendency to corrode from the inside, it decays, and eventually it either changes or dies.

I have pointed out before that Fidel Castro himself has complained about the lack of criticism and proposals for change within his government. What Fidel misses is that he has drawn a line, and the line is so harsh, pragmatic Cubans have historically decided it's better to keep quiet. Or they become part of the subculture which makes a living via corruption and outright theft of government property. In either case, the result is disfunctional governance and a poorly performing society. Cubans are educated, and they live long, but so what? They are not living to their full potential. And one of the worst things one can do to an educated person who knows he's going to live a long time is to also let them understand they'll never be all they can be.

We know that no regime is eternal, although some can last for hundreds of years. The change in Cuba is already taking place, as the government moves to create an entrepeneurial class able to work in private enterprises. I suspect this is opening pandora's box, and the change will be irreversible. In other words, orthodox communism in Cuba is dead. Hopefully they won't move towards the brand of savage capitalism practiced in China today.

I think in the future the Cuban government will change to allow the Cuban people to have non-government controlled newspapers, political parties, non-governmental organizations, and other institutions which are needed in a well functioning society. Hopefully, this change will come without putting the Cuban nation under the control of the American or Chinese Empires. A tricky thing to do, but I believe it can be done.

[bemildred]

2. As long as the USA has a Cuban Agenda, it will distort politics in Cuba.

Castro's unwillingness to open things up is related to the USA's desire to reverse his revolution and impose it's own vision. I don't mean this to prevent all criticism of Castro, but to say that - as you say - we will never know how it might have been.

[Judi Lynn]

3. Recommending. n/t

[flamingdem]

4. Recommend for the truth that we'll never know what could have been

due to the above mentioned reasons and distortions.

The sooner things are normalized the better.

[bemildred]

5. Yep, that's the ticket.

External hostility and pressure just prevents internal development and reform. That is why authoritarians invent enemies if nobody does the job for them.