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on what just happened, and what's been happening. South America has LOTS AND LOTS of oil that is basically undefended, militarily (vis a vis the U.S.), and South America has only one enemy--the U.S., and most especially the U.S.-Bush Junta. The Bushwhacks know no boundaries in their lust for oil and power. To them, Venezuela's Zulia province must look like a 'sitting duck'--up there on the Caribbean adjacent to Colombia (Bush Cartel client state, flush with $6 BILLION in U.S. military aid, and well practiced in assassinations, death squads, torture and repression). That Betancourt theater, earlier in the year, was interesting because accounts of it revealed that that incident, and likely the bombing/raid on Ecuador, was broadcast live from the field to a "war room" in the U.S. embassy in Bogota. Both events, and possibly the Bolivian fascist insurrection, might have been a testing out of military systems (surveillance, communication, coordination), and the bombing/raid on Ecuador and the Bolivian insurrection, also test-outs of the "the enemy's" (the rest of South America's) reactions. In any case, what became clear is that the Bushwhacks are not idling around in South America, waiting out the end of their power. They have PLANS--active, on-going operations, and, likely, a war scenario all laid out.
I was first alerted to this back in Dec 07, by a Donald Rumsfeld op-ed in the WaPo. Clearly HE has plans. And one of the things he urges is "swift action" by the U.S. in support of "friends and allies" in South America. So, consider this, for what he means by "swift action":
I think the main target is Zulia. There is evidence of a fascist secession cabal in Zulia (like the one in Bolivia). They would declare their "independence" from the Chavez government, and ask the U.S. to help free them from "dictator Chavez" (--lots of psyops time & money have gone into that false accusation). The Bushwhacks would provide military support ("swift action")from three directions--with the US 4th Fleet from the Caribbean (recently reconstituted by the Bushwhacks probably for this purpose), with the Colombian military/ death squads, Blackwater, and U.S. special forces, across the border from Colombia, and internally using local fascist militias. Once they have control of Zulia--if they defeat the Venezuelan military--it is much more defensible than the eastern provinces of Bolivia (which are land-locked and surrounded by leftist democracies, including Brazil and Argentina).
With Zulia and its oil, the Bushwhacks could try to create a leftist-free zone in the Caribbean/Central America, as a sphere of influence/buffer zone against the coming powerhouse of the South American "Common Market." Zulia's oil would be a powerful weapon to that end. (They could, for instance, stop low cost oil shipments to Cuba, and to other Caribbean/C.A. countries; they could punish a lot of countries that are getting Venezuelan aid, cripple Venezuela, and insure shipments of Venezuelan oil to the U.S.) They would have fascist hegemony over the north hump of South America (Colombia, northern Venezuela), as well as the Caribbean, and might net Ecuador (south border of Colombia) into the bargain. Also lots and lots of oil in Ecuador; not to mention a $16 BILLION environmental damage lawsuit that Chevron is about to lose, in Ecuador--something the Bushwhacks would certainly like to end (by installing a fascist dictator, and killing some judges). The U.S. base in Manta, Ecuador--run by Dyncorp--was likely used in the bombing/raid on Ecuador in March, and could supply planes and bombs to the Venezuelan secessionists. The president of Ecuador will not be renewing the U.S. military lease on that base, as of 2009--which could add some urgency to Bushwhack plans to get Oil War II-South America started. And with McBush, there won't be a continuity problem, but with Obama there might be.
Dieterich is correct that the key to preventing such a move by the Bushfucks in their final hour is South American unity, which has been growing steadily stronger over the last year. They may not have great armies, but they do have strong common goals--social justice and Latin American sovereignty and self-determination--and they have the great strength that they are truly democratic governments, with widespread popular support. I also tend to agree with Dieterich that the confrontation over Ecuador was too soon (March of this year), and it was wise of them all to back off and avoid that Bushite-instigated war. It left the Bushites flat-footed, with their "mystery laptopS" and Raul Reyes' head on a platter as their only prizes (and it further obligated them to get Betancourt out, cuz that's whose release they scuttled, by killing Reyes). (How to turn it into a coup for John McCain was rather a problem, though--and very awkwardly and stupidly done.) They mainly wanted to draw Venezuela into a war--and probably do the Zulia insurrection at the same time, with Venezuela engaged on two fronts--in its own Caribbean province to the north, and, on the other side of Colombia, trying to help Ecuador repel U.S./Colombian forces. I thought it very wise of Chavez at the time (and noticed that Lula da Silva called him "the great peacemaker"). Chavez has good advisers. And, in the middle of that, they could have started the fascist insurrection in Bolivia, and turned the whole continent to flames--but with their main objective being Zulia, which they could pull back to and secure.
There is a lot of evidence that this is the Bushite plan. But I don't think that things are going according to plan, for them. They've been bumbling around, doing inept and stupid things, for over a year. Their plan to hand Chavez a diplomatic disaster, with dead hostages--back in Nov 07-Feb 08--failed. Their "suitcase full of money" caper out of Miami failed, and all they could get out of it was the absurd prosecution in Miami with their Bushbot U.S. attorney. When they told South American leaders that they must "isolate" Chavez, Nestor Kirchner replied, "But he's my brother!" And that's about how it's gone for them. They are so out of step as to be laughable--if they weren't such murdering, torturing, dangerous bastards.
This paragraph by Dieterich makes me uneasy:
"All the presidents of the new Latin-American political establishment are ethical persons and none wants the spilling of blood. But history teaches that the decisive battles among different historic projects are decided by the correlation of power between organized forms of violence, in this case, the organized fascist-imperial violence versus the legitimate and legal organized violence of the States."
He almost seems to want war. He says it's inevitable, based on history. That's nonsense. Nothing is inevitable. South America has sufficient economic/political clout--if they stick together--to prevent further bloodshed, and force the Bushwhacks to back off. "...history teaches that the decisive battles...blah, blah, blah." History teaches that war is hell, and that you may defeat the Nazis in one era, only to become the Nazis in the next--which is what has happened to us, or rather, to our government. War is only good for war profiteers. In today's blood-soaked, tinderbox world, it is to be avoided at almost any cost. A show of strength--such as Evo Morales has been compelled to display, or Chavez is about to produce in the Caribbean with Russia--may be necessary to convince violent, murderous leaders, like the white separatists in Bolivia, or those in the White House, but it should follow the principle of the porcupine--make the cost of attack too dear. The way to handle this situation, in particular, with one side having only brute strength, and no ideas, and the other side having democracy and great ideas, is to play to your strength: ideas. The South American left is way, way, WAY smarter than the Bushwhacks, their local running dogs, and their global corpo masters, because the new leftist leaders of South America are drawing upon the collective intelligence of their people. Their people are making history, not repeating it. Why try to burden them with these old paradigms? Radical change for the better can be peacefully achieved. They are proving it, in country after country.
The white separatists in Bolivia have completely discredited their cause--by machine-gunning 15 peasant farmers, blowing up Brazil/Argentina's gas pipeline and running rampant. And the Bush junta has ended its influence in South America (such as it was) by supporting these crazy rich racists. They need to gear up the new institutions and networks they are using to deal with this for what may be a Busite last ditch war (or possibly a private war that continues on after them, run by Rumsfeld). Bolivia was not a feasible Bushite war project, but Zulia is. Chavez is clearly taking that threat seriously, and they all need to (and probably are). But the solution is going to be--and really has to be--from the intellect: smart ideas.
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