Barack Obama's job approval rating to be 50.0% or more at midday ET 31 Dec 2009:

[jenmito]

Last Price: 45.0 ^20.0

http://www.intrade.com/

Why do you think his "chances" went up 20 "points" today? Could it be due to the statement he made about the terrorist attempt and Iran?

[tabasco]

1. He's doing a great job.

It ain't easy turning around eight years of neocon disaster.

[jenmito]

3. I agree...

but I wonder what poll they use to base his approval on the last day of the year and why the probability went up so much today.

[AVID]

14. Score! +1

[grantcart]

2. Democrats controlling the House 66 ^ 9 lol

[jenmito]

4. It's up .9-not 9...

it's been around 66 for a looong time now!

[grantcart]

6. even funnier hell I would buy it at .9 just for the whacko factor.

[jenmito]

7. Same here!

[jenmito]

5. I see someone who doesn't like me unrec'ed my OP.`

:rofl:

[stevenleser]

10. That's OK, I gave you the Rec back. And by the way...

:kick: !!!!!

[jenmito]

11. Thank you!

:)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. If you want the answer, an expiring future begins to move dramatically

When his approval came out at 51% today with three days to go the chance went up a lot.

If movement in approval over the next three days were random the odds are good that it will end at or above 50%.

If tomorrow's approval # happened to be 49% you would see an even more dramatic swing down. If it is 53% then the upside will run up to almost 100 (100=sure thing)

[jenmito]

9. But which pollster/what poll do they go by?

Thanks for the explanation, BTW. :hi:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

13. It would be specified in the contracts. I assume Gallup.

All those contracts have speciffic definitions online somewhere. In this case I would guess the proposition is for the Dec 31 Gallup Daily figure to be 50% or higher. (Which is a good bet.)

[Cha]

12. Thanks, jenmito~

It's one of the most challenging jobs in the world and Obama is out there doin' it every day.

Let the squawkers squawk and the squeakers squeak..our Country has a real president.

[jenmito]

15. Kick-he's up to 60 right now! n/t

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

16. That sounds like a good buy.

It would be quite unusual to drop from 53% today to 49% tomorrow. 4% is a big move.

[jenmito]

17. I still can't find which poll they go by...

and I'm afraid it could be fixed or something. The intrade # today went from 35 to 50 to 60 and now is down to 55.5, so I'm a little worried to get in.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. Ah... they use Real Clear Politics average (so maybe not such a good buy)

The name of the contract is:

"Pres. Job Approval - December 2009 Job Approval Ratings for Barack Obama (Real Clear Politics - see rules)"

But I don't find a link for the rules. Maybe you have to be signed in?

[jenmito]

19. Duh (that's to ME for not noticing that written right on top)...

Yeah-the RCP averages out different polls, including the ridiculously low Rassmussen. I wouldn't take the bet. He's back up to 60, even though the RCP average has him at 50.1: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

20. Hmmm... this is a tricky call:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Obama at 50.1

Being right on the edge like that, the bet gets down to whether tomorrows Gal;lup (53 today) and Rasmussen (47 today) will average to more of less than 50.

So the whole contract is just predicting those two polls tomorrow.

(That little extra 0.1 might change the possibilities a little... I guess it's possible that even if gallup is 52 and rasmussen is 47 that might put the RCP at exactly 50.0 depending on the sensitivity of the average)

[jenmito]

23. Exactly. And Rasmussen has put Obama all the way down to 44% 12/24. But intrade now has him at 80!

I won't bet on it, but I have a strong feeling that Obama will be above 50% tomorrow.

[ProgressOnTheMove]

21. We don't even need to protest sometimes, with a printer and laptop we can get out ...

a lot of information print it up post it around town and debunk most of th noise machines fear and smear. As long as we get the word out the world changes, with tinyurls so folks can note it down check the facts and videos for themselves. The word we must get out at the moment is the gitmo trials must go ahead to convey American justice to the world, to disprove the characterization of terrorists of the US. We can whack this on paper and just slap it all around town with paper and duct tape. Once that's done and the HCR bill passes we need a strong pro choice campaign that will chase Stupak from office who's more responsible than Nelson as he pushed for it in the Senate bill, plus we can afford to cut him loose and an abundance of posters explaining why women need to have the choice of abortion. How in one woman's case the fetus had died and didn't miscarriage and had she not aborted infection from this could of spread and killed her. Also highlight how do they would go after birth control next because they will, support choice now in a free nation. If folks are disapproving of abortion use education than legislation. This is how we keep his numbers up, up, up and we move forward quicker than ever before. Make the posters creative and interesting to look at we have to reach people every way we can. Also a few poster defending Napolitano would be awesome too, if she single handedly kept AZ in piece against all odds she's definitely the woman to keep us safe despite all the right say to the contrary.

[euphoria12leo]

22. The President's approval rating is up

because when Dick Cheney speaks everyone listens. We may not want to but MSM insist on putting all his b/s out there for us to hear over and over again. However, everyone remembers how the Bush Administration failed with everything. IMO President Obama is doing a good job.


:kick:

[jenmito]

24. Well, it's now 99.5! So it looks like all money is on the bet that Obama WILL be at 50% approval or

above. http://www.intrade.com/ But the media is still talking about Obama's "sliding approval rating." :eyes: