Will Obama have a realistic Democratic primary challenger?

[onehandle]

Yes would be a challenger who could win the primary. You have to first, really believe that a major Democrat would run against Obama and second, really believe they could win.

No could either be a challenger who has no chance or no challenger at all, because they are basically the same thing.

[quiller4]

1. Obama's poll numbers are up with self-identified Democrats.

That may seem strange when you see how much criticism he gets on this board but I see that growing support every time I attend one of my Democratic district meetings. If anything, that bunch of party activists are even more ready to open their wallets, pound pavement and pick up phones to support Obama. They sure aren't looking to support a primary challenger.

[Armstead]

2. Probably not -- althrough there may be a symbolic challenger

[BeFree]

3. How about Kerry?

Gore?
Pelosi?
Sanders?
Nelson?


I know... DEAN!

That's be great... divide the party again just like 1980 and we can have us a 21st century Reagan!! Yeehahhhh!

[MNDemNY]

4. He will have a challenger, however it , of course, would be foolhardy ..

to believe he will not be the nominee.(barring an unforeseeable gaffe).

[DJ13]

5. I hope so

He needs a real challenger to keep him pointed in the right direction.

[Kahuna]

9. That is not the way it works. If a sitting president is challenged by

someone in his own party, that signals to the voting public that even his own party doesn't want him. Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy = Exhibit One.

[DJ13]

17. If a real challenger could force him back to left of center.....

Look, I want nothing more than Obama to be the President he campaigned as, if he isnt that person, will never BE that person, why vote for him just because he has a D after his name?

If a real challenger could force him back to left of center (from his current right of center) wouldnt he be a better President for us all?

[ProSense]

6. No Democrat is that stupid. n/t

[mikehiggins]

7. Anybody remember the groundswell of O in 2004?

If the progressive left could find a reputable candidate in 2012 it might be possible to defeat Obama in a primary. If RFK had lived would he have had a chance against LBJ or Humphrey? Quite likely.

If the sitting President, whom I support by the way, alienates enough on the left he will be faced with a two fold problem.

First, the folks who came out for him and worked the streets and precincts so passionately likely would not if there was a legitimate alternative out there. Someone like Dean might fit the scenario.

Second, the folks who gave so freely are already less likely to do so next time around. If we are still in Iraq and Afghanistan and Guantanamo, and the middle class is being pressed by unemployment and the alleged new costs of "improved" health care, and Wall Street still rules the roost, well, the math isn't that hard to do.

AND, if the GOP does as expected and nominates some bozo who Bozo the Clown could beat (if BtC wasn't already dead, that is) there would be a lot of sleepless nights ahead for the Obama White House.

Just my opinion, of course, but I could be right.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

8. Hillary wouldn't do it, but someone like Dean might (depends on the next 2 years)

[cali]

21. I can assure you that Dean will not primary Obama.

He's a pragmatic guy.

[spiritual_gunfighter]

31. He has already said he will support Obama in 2012 n/t

[onenote]

10. based on things as they stand today? No.

I don't have a crystal ball (unlike so many here at DU) but based on where things are today, I see no "realistic" primary challenger -- if by realistic you mean someone capable of raising enough money to make a credible bid against the President in the primaries.

For those who think otherwise, I would be interested in seeing the name of the "realistic" challenger who (a) based on where things stand today (including the President having 80 plus percent approval ratings among Democrats) would be interested in mounting that challenge and (b) could raise suficient funds to make a "realistic" go of it.

[VMI Dem]

11. Depends on how much further right he goes.

[phleshdef]

12. Hell no. Even if there were enough fringe "huff. post dems", the super delegates would shut it down.

Did people forget how our primaries even work?

[izzybeans]

13. Let's let the right splinter themselves to death, shall we?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. No

It is a political eternity between now and 2012 and, as polls indicate, his support remains high among most Democrats, so, barring some massive unforeseen blunders by Obama between now and then- so bad that he could not possibly be renominated (at which point he probably wouldn't run again anyway), there is no realistic chance of a primary challenge nor of me choosing to actively support a potential challenger. I honestly don't believe that, unless he becomes MASSIVELY unpopular (reaching Cheney-level "radioactivity") among rank and file Democrats, anybody will even seriously consider challenging him for re-election in 2012- even on a symbolic basis.

[JVS]

15. 2012 would be a very opportune time for a conservative Democrat to topple Obama

Obama's win in the 2008 primary was not overwhelming by any means. If the economy continues its lackluster performance and someone who appeals to the demographics that nearly were able to get the nomination for Hillary, Obama could have a hard time opposing them. Although he'd have the advantage of incumbancy, the coalition that he needed to win in 2008 will not reassemble for him because of his policy decisions.

[Lord Helmet]

16. Winning 365 electoral votes was a solid rout.

52.9% of the popular vote to McCain's 45.7%.
365 electoral votes to 173.

[JVS]

20. Try reading the post again. And remember: Prepositional Phrases

Prepositional phrases modify nouns and verbs while indicating various relationships between subjects and verbs. They are used to color and inform sentences in powerful ways.
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What are the Parts of a Prepositional Phrase?

In simplest terms, prepositional phrases consist of a preposition and an object of a preposition. Prepositions are indeclinable words that introduce the object of a prepositional phrase. Indeclinable words are words that have only one possible form. For example, below is a preposition, but belows or belowing are not possible forms of below.
The noun phrase or pronoun that follows the preposition is called the object of the preposition. For example, behind the couch is a prepositional phrase where behind is the preposition and the noun phrase the couch acts as the object of the preposition. Sometimes adjectives are used to further modify the object of the preposition, as in behind the big old smelly green couch.
Formal Functions of Prepositions

Prepositions perform three formal functions in sentences. They can act as an adjective modifying a noun, as an adverb modifying a verb, or as a nominal when used in conjunction with the verb form to be.
Prepositions Functioning as Adjectives

In the following sentences, prepositional phrases perform the function of modifying the nouns boat, pen, and car:
Look at the boat with the blue sail. Please hand me the pen next to the telephone. Park the car beside the fence.
Prepositions Functioning as Adverbs

In these examples, notice how the prepositional phrases perform adverbial functions by modifying the verbs after, stalled, and won:
The coyote runs after the rabbit. The car stalled despite the tune-up. The team won without the starting quarterback.
Prepositions Functioning as Nominals

In English, sometimes words function as nouns but aren't themselves nouns. These words are called nominals. Prepositions sometimes perform this important function in sentences when they are used in conjunction with the verb to be. For example:
The park is next to the hospital. The student is between an A and a B. The fight scene is before the second act.
Semantic Properties of Prepositions

In semantic terms, the preposition functions to illustrate a logical, temporal, or spatial relationship between the object of the prepositional phrase and the other components of the sentence. Consider the following examples:
The dog is asleep on his bed.
In this example, the prepositional phrase on his bed indicates a spatial relationship between the subject dog and the object bed. If the preposition on was replaced with under or beneath the spatial relationship would be altered.
The town hasn't been the same since the war.
In this sentence, the prepositional phrase since the war indicates a temporal relationship between the verb phrase hasn't been the same and the object war.
The family survived despite the accident.
he prepositional phrase despite the accident in this sentence indicates a logical relationship between the survival of the family and the accident.
List of Common Prepositions

The following table lists the most commonly used prepositions in English.
about
above
across
after
against
along
among
around
at
before
behind
below
beneath
beside
between
beyond
but
by
despite
down
during
except
for
from
in
inside
into
like
near
off
of
on
onto
out
outside
over
past
since
through
throughout
till
to
toward
under
underneath
until
up
upon
with
within
without
Responsible Use

There are no rules that govern how much nouns and verbs can be modified in English. Often writers employ prepositional phrases excessively, creating an almost comical effect in an attempt at over clarification. The following sentence implements a string of propositional phrases to modify the verb stood.
The old farmhouse stood for years, after the revolution, by the fork in the road, beyond the orange grove, over the wooden bridge, at the farthest edge of the family's land, toward the great basin, down in the valley, under the old mining town, outside the city's limits, and past the end of the county maintained road.
Prepositional phrases, in theory, can modify sentences infinitely. Therefore, it is important for writers to understand their form and function in order to make appropriate stylistic choices.

[Lord Helmet]

23. "Obama's win in the 2008 primary was not overwhelming by any means."

[JVS]

25. Are electoral votes part of the PRIMARY?

Or McCain a participant?

[Lord Helmet]

27. You're right --- I missed "primary" (which isn't a prepositional phrase -hey)

But a win is a win and he beat the Clinton machine which was indeed formidable whether you think so or not.

I understand you want somebody else to win the nomination in 2012, but wishing isn't enough to make it so.

I have always said that anybody that thinks they can unseat him in 2012 is welcome to give it a shot. It's just unlikely someone will even try and even more unlikely anyone would be successful.

Time will tell.

[JVS]

30. primary is part of a prepositional phrase. Also, not all wins are equal in a system where you...

have the possibility of a brokered convention. I would argue that Obama's inability to win decisively created a situation where he had to make concessions to Clinton and her supporters to get them on board. Hence the SOS appointment.

[onenote]

19. care to offer a name?

[JVS]

24. I'm thinking Evan Bayh, but Jake says the man is not up to it. There are several others.

Clinton could try again, but being placed in the cabinet kind of has tied her hands. Rahm, same story and he lacks appeal to the rural voters (really for anyone, but different reasons). Mary Landrieu or Claire McCaskill could be well suited for it. Kay Hagan is a bit to new to the senate. Bill Nelson will be 70, so maybe a bit too old. Governors or other politicians with similar profiles could also make attempts.

Obama's move rightward really doesn't protect him because it implies the argument that we never should have risked supporting the "hope and change" candidate in the first place when it turned out that he knew that the solidly moderate policies that Clinton would have pursued were in fact the right ones all along. This begs the question, "What do they need Obama for?" These conservative Democrats could also go after Obama on the deficit. And like I said before, since Obama has broken with the coalition that won him the primary, he'd have a tough time repeating a victory that was neither easy nor decisive.

[TheWraith]

18. And in other news, 13% of DUers are completely deluded.

Really folks... get a grip.

[freddie mertz]

22. The only honest answer: I don't know. nt.

[OHdem10]

26. I do not believe any Democrat will challenge him Most are smart

enough to realize the time would not be right for them to
win. If they are not that smart, they would not be good
candidates. The smart candidate would be working quietl7
stae to state setting up for a win in 2016.

Pure and simple, if Obama cannot win in 2012, it will not
be a good time for a Democrat to run. Timing is every thing
in Politics.

[RoadRage]

28. If you want to waste that kind of money..

please just donate it to a charity or group that could really use it. Obama is still loved by 88% of all Democrats (or 30% of DU Democrats).. so having a far far left candidate that would never in a MILLION YEARS actually get elected, but would run to make the 10% on the far-far left feel warm and fuzzy is IMO a complete waste of money.

Spend it by helping those who need help.. and by putting the $$$ to good use. Throwing it down a rabbit hole to make far lefters feel good for a few months is just STUPID IMO - and frankly, we're going to have enough competition from whoever the tea baggers throw up - Obama doesn't need another election like '08 where he gets it from the left (Clinton) and the Right (McCain / Palin).

If you don't like what the guys done.. don't vote for him.. vote 3rd party.. write in Mickey Mouse or Michael Moore if you want.. but spendning your actual hard earned money on such frivalty seems rediculous.

[backscatter712]

29. Not likely.

Even today, Obama's got a very strong base of supporters and a huge warchest. It'd take a huge, well-founded, extremely popular challenger to even begin to challenge him.

It's not easy to primary-challenge a sitting President, and I just don't see it happening to Obama.