that more people are paying penalties for not having health care and more taxes are being paid on the insurance by the people who do have it. That's how they pay for the 2nd decade.
And, if you'd read the CBO letter to Reid about the fiscal estimate for his bill, you'd know that the CBO itself doesn't have much confidence in their estimate of the 2nd decade. From page 15 of the letter:
A detailed year-by-year projection for years beyond 2019, like those that CBO prepares for the 10-year budget window, would not be meaningful because the uncertainties involved are simply too great.
If you don't believe me about the deficit savings being dependent upon the plan taking in 6 years of revnues and 10 years of service, read page 9 of that letter. You can see that between 2010 and 2014, before services under the bill start, the CBO's estimate is the bill will save $136B on the deficit. But, between 2010 and 2019, they plan to save $130B on the deficit. So, 2015-2019, they plan on adding $6B to the deficit.
The latest CBO letter to Reid on the fiscal estimates for his bill are here:
http://cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=10868&type=1">Click
What you're listening to is just political rhetoric. Those guys in Washington are politicians. Don't believe what they say. You have to go and verify it.
And, as you'll notice, half of the savings on this bill (and that's the savings before they start spending money, not after) is because of those Medicare cuts. Slashing Medicare by half a trillion dollars. The Center for Medicare Services did a study that basically said the amount of cuts proposed by the bill just are not possible:
While such payment update reductions would provide a strong incentive for providers to maximize efficiency, it is doubtful that many could improve their own productivity to the degree achieved by the economy at large. Over time, a sustained reduction in payment updates, based on productivity expectations that are difficult to attain, would cause Medicare payment rates to grow more slowly than, and in a way that was unrelated to, the providers’ costs of furnishing services to beneficiaries. Thus, providers for whom Medicare constitutes a substantive portion of their business could find it difficult to remain profitable and, absent legislative intervention, might end their participation in the program (possibly jeopardizing access to care for beneficiaries). Simulations by the Office of the Actuary suggest that roughly 20 percent of Part A providers would become unprofitable within the 10-year projection period as a result of the productivity adjustments.8 Although this policy could be monitored over time to avoid such an outcome, changes would likely result in smaller actual savings than shown here for these provisions.
That quote starts on page 8 of the report. It's available here:
http://www.cms.hhs.gov/ActuarialStudies/Downloads/S_PPACA_2009-12-10.pdf">Click
The Lewin Group is a non-partisan research firm that did do a more thorough study of the costs of the 2nd decade of the bill. Their conclusion was that the 2nd decade, including the impossible spending cuts to Medicare, all the penalties people pay for not having insurance, and the taxes people pay on the insurance when they do have it, would add $13.9 B to the deficit. The Lewin Group report is available here:
http://www.lewin.com/content/publications/Lewin_Senate_and_House_Bill_Compared.pdf">Click