Can Republicans Win Ted Kennedy's Senate Seat?

[ccharles000]

There's been a fair amount of excitement in the rightosphere regarding the January 19, 2010 special election to fill the seat of Senator Ted Kennedy. The race pits Massachusetts AG Martha Coakley against Republican state Senator Scott Brown. The cases for GOP optimism are pretty well spelled out in Jim Geraghty's piece at National Review.

There's some truth to these arguments, as Massachusetts isn't as monolithically Democratic as most make it out to be; the real power brokers in the state are the Independents, who make up a near-plurality of the electorate. Hence, Republicans have been able to elect a number of GOP Governors over the last few decades (and in a straight-up match up with Deval Patrick, would probably be poised to do it again in 2010). Jim Ogonowski's near-win in MA-05 in 2007, during the depths of anti-GOP sentiment in the country, gives further proof of the state's willingness to embrace the right kind of Republican (ie a non-Southern, non-conservative Republican without ties to the religious right). In a lot of ways this is the flip of Southern states, which are thoroughly Republican at the Presidential level, but are more politically diverse at the state level.

On the other hand, this is a state that hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, when it re-elected Edward Brooke – an extremely liberal Republican (at least by today's standards). And you can tell a lot about this race by what the parties are doing. Or, more specifically, what they aren't doing. I guarantee that with the passage of ObamaCare on the line, the NRSC is polling the state; the fact that we haven't seen any leaked polls or advertisements going up tells you that there isn't much evidence that Brown has much of a chance here. And let's not exaggerate the state's diversity, as there are hardly any Republicans at all in the Massachusetts statehouse.

Nevertheless, in the absence of any polling done in the past month, I embarked on a little thought experiment. One of the interesting things about the 2009 Governor's races was how similar the movements in the states' electorates were. In Virginia, the Republicans' share of the electorate increased by 12% from 2008 to 2009; in New Jersey it was 10%. In Virginia, Democrats were at about 84% of their 2009 level; in New Jersey it was 93%.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/12/31/can-republicans-win-ted-kennedys-senate-seat/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Freal_clear_politics+%28TIME%3A+Real+Clear+Politics%29

[MaineDem]

1. I doubt it. n/t

[TheCowsCameHome]

2. Not likely.

Brown is whining that the national GOP isn't doing anything to help his campaign.

Even they don't like him, apparently.

[frazzled]

3. It's a (remote) possibility

I saw it in the governor's race when the Democratic primaries yielded Shannon O'Brien (I was working for Robert Reich), and Mitt Romney creamed her. Of course, that came after the disastrous governorship of Jane Swift. And O'Brien was one of the most insipid candidates I'd ever seen.

But Deval Patrick is mighty unpopular right now. There is a possibility that that vast center that is the majority in Massachusetts could be fed up and throw it to a Republican. Especially if Coakley blows it in debates. (Which I doubt.)

It probably won't happen, for sentimental reasons. But I wouldn't say such a thing is theoretically impossible in MA.

[DFW]

12. Agreed.

It's possible, but at this point a worst-case scenario.

[customerserviceguy]

4. Thanks for the reminder

I had forgotten that MA was having a special election so soon.

As I recall the MA Legislature bent heaven and earth to change the law to allow Gov. Deval to appoint a Senator to replace Ted Kennedy, assuring us of a Democratic vote for HCR. Looks like there's a possibility that we might lose that 60th vote when the conference committee version comes up for a cloture vote.

[mdmc]

5. the teabaggers last name is Kennedy

but i think the dems have it in the bag..

[stray cat]

6. Of course

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

9. Can't blame you for not aiming high, huh? -nt

[timeforpeace]

7. Read somewhere that the Repukes aren't even trying, so if they don't think so, no.

[burning rain]

8. Geraghty's relying on a comparison of gubernatorial & senatorial races, which is a false comparison.

In New Jersey and New England, all pretty much deep blue, Republicans are able to win gubernatorial races where they put up moderate candidates attuned to state issues, and at the same time voters can be confident that they won't be empowering a national Republican Party that they loathe by electing a state official. It's a different matter with Senate candidates: they are federal and not state officers; they increase the power of a national Republican Party loathesome to blue state folks on social and cultural issues in particular. Republicans can get elected governor in New Jersey or New England, but voters there know that a vote for a Republican US senator is a vote to make ultraconservative Republicans the majority, to give them the chairmanships. In large part the desire to deal a blow to Bush and Washington Republicans led voters in Rhode Island to oust Lincoln Chafee from his Senate seat in 2006--and he was a reasonable, decent guy with a famous and well-loved name. Martha Coakley is very able and credible, and I'd rate that gork Scott Brown's chances against her as being on the "none" side of "slim to none."

[Mass]

10. Every senatorial election cycle, the GOP makes noises they will have a good year in MA.

Every year, they fail. (and Ogonowski is not a good example, as he ran in the most conservative district in MA and still lost by 7 points).

It is possible that the governor race will be tough, given the economic difficulties and a third "moderate" candidate, but Coakley is the next senator for Massachusetts.

[Tippy]

11. I had the opportunity to speak to AG Martha Coakley

A day or so after Senator Kennedy passed away...I was astounded her staff got her on the phone, my intent was to leave a message...Ms Coakley was very personable, my goal was to ask her help in changing MA law, regarding temporarily filling Teddy's seat.I can't remember how she worded her question but my answer was...The most important vote the House would ever make was coming up, and every Democrat across the country wanted Teddys seat filled. She asked where I was from and thanked me for being so passionate about Health Care.

Anyway I found her to be a caring person, just like Teddy, and the voters seem to really like her like her, so I will make an early prediction, She will be the JR Senator from MA.

[ObamaKerryDem]

13. Yes...and I could win the lottery. lol

So yes, it COULD happen--but will it? Considering the fact that John Kerry got over 70% of the vote in the last election, Obama got around that same amount (I think?), how mega popular Teddy was/is there and the fact that the Mass. GOP seems to be an endangered species (at best)....it seems unlikely.

I predict that Martha Coakely will soon be serving alongside John Kerry in the US Senate. In fact, I'd be willing to bet money on it. :D

[seaglass]

14. Niki Tsongas beat Ognowski 51%-46% - that's a near win for Ognowski?

He didn't even win his home town.

And Coakley has unbelievable name recognition - can not possibly see Brown beating her. Even if he does use JFK in his ad...lol.

[graywarrior]

15. I live in MA and the answer is NO!

[Arkana]

16. No. Next question.

Coakley has 5 days and she's miles ahead in every poll.

[Mass]

17. Rasmussen has her ahead by 9 points. Not going to happen.

http://washingtonindependent.com/73152/rasmussen-coakley-leads-by-nine-points-in-massachusetts

[quiller4]

18. and Rs likely voter screen is questionable. Considering D turnout

in the primary it is unlikely that so few Ds will turnout in the special given that the election is cast as confirming or killing a Kennedy healthcare legacy bill.

[Clear Blue Sky]

19. Never.